Analyst tells clients to expect record sales for the Apple iPhone 7 during the 2016 holiday quarter

Analyst tells clients to expect record sales for the Apple iPhone 7 during the 2016 holiday quarter
While some investors decided to dump their Apple shares after the company reported the first year-over-year decline in quarterly iPhone sales, at least one analyst thinks that was a big mistake. BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long expects the Apple iPhone 7 to produce record sales numbers for Apple. That is despite the expectation that it won't be until the tenth-anniversary iPhone is unveiled in 2017, that big changes will be made to the device. Another analyst, KGI Securities Ming-Chi Kuo, says that the iPhone 7 won't have many "attractive selling points."

In a note sent to his clients, Long says that the percentage of active iPhone users with a version of the phone that is two years older and more, is at the highest it has ever been. The analyst calculates that 25% of the installed base of iPhone users is ready for an update, and that amounts to 120 million phones. For the launch of the Apple iPhone 6s, 19% of the installed base owned a two-year old or older model while the number for the launch of the Apple iPhone 6 was 23%.

Some believe that if you want to know how well an iPhone model is going to sell, simply look at the number of units ordered by Apple. Last month, it was reported that Apple stunned Wall Street by ordering anywhere from 72 million to 78 million units of the iPhone 7 for 2016. The Street was expecting 65 million phones to be ordered by the tech titan. 

Sales of the iPhone peaked in the holiday quarter of 2015, which was Apple's fiscal first quarter for 2016. During the three months from October 2015 through December 2015, Apple sold 74.8 million iPhone units. Wells Fargo's securities unit is looking for Apple to surpass that record total. If BMO's Long is right about strong iPhone 7 sales, which would be quite an accomplishment for a device not expected to have many changes, selling 75 million units overall could be accomplished.

We could see the Apple iPhone 7 and Apple iPhone 7 Plus come without an earphone jack, powered by the A10 chip inside. The Apple iPhone 7 Plus is rumored to have a dual camera setup in back. At various times there has been talk that the next iteration of the iPhone would be water resistant, but that rumor has seemed to quiet down.


source: BusinessInsider

Related phones

iPhone 7
  • Display 4.7" 750 x 1334 pixels
  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
  • Processor Apple A10 Fusion, Quad-core, 2340 MHz
  • Storage 256 GB
  • Battery 1960 mAh(14h 3G talk time)
iPhone 7 Plus
  • Display 5.5" 1080 x 1920 pixels
  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
  • Processor Apple A10 Fusion, Quad-core, 2340 MHz
  • Storage 256 GB
  • Battery 2900 mAh(21h 3G talk time)

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72 Comments

1. Barney_stinson

Posts: 672; Member since: May 30, 2016

Same old expectations again and again !! But NOTE 7 will beat ip7 thats a surity!!! Note - the beast of a phone

4. nctx77

Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013

Dude that has never happened sales wise.

10. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Actually it has, more than once. But see here is the difference. Apple doesn't give sales numbers based on models. They just say we sold 51M iPhones last quarter. So since Apple has 5 selling models, its safe to just average that each model sold roughly 10M each. Is that fair? So when the Galaxy Note sells 40M in a year and you average that out over quarters, that means Samsung would have sold just as many or more Note or even the S if you went by just one model.. Would that be a fair assessment? Also Apple sold less than 200M phones last year. That mean out of the 300M+ Samsung sold, if we just took the sales numbers of just phone that carry "Galaxy" in the name; that means Samsung sold more Galaxies than Apple sold iPhones. Would that also be a fair assessment?

11. Mxyzptlk unregistered

Source please, without your usual essay response.

22. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

I don't need a source and I dont need to give you numbers. What I gave was an estimate based on surrounding provable facts. Apple sells 10M phones on preorder. Take them 8weeks+ to fill that initial order. Which means Apple will sell less than 20M of a new model in its first quarter after release. It takes the 2nd quarter for the new model sales to exceed older selling models. By the 3rd quarter, older model continue to drop sales, while the newer model sells better. Then by 4th quarter, the last new model drops even more sells as smart people await the new model and then buys the older model at a reduced price which starts the cycle again. This has been proven without numbers. When Apple sold 75M phones when the iPhone 6 was released, there is no way mote than 30% of them were the latest model because Apple seems to only be able to make roughly 3-5M phones in a month. While Samsung has the capacity to make 10M+ of one model. After all, Samsung shipped 10M S7's in its very first month on sale.

28. Ninetysix

Posts: 2964; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/09/28Apple-Announces-Record-iPhone-6s-iPhone-6s-Plus-Sales.html "September 28, 2015 — Apple® today announced it has sold more than 13 million new iPhone® 6s and iPhone 6s Plus models, a new record, just three days after launch." Earth to TechieXP..earth to techie... Stop living in this imaginary world of yours.

29. darkkjedii

Posts: 31052; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Owend him.

44. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

I? http://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsung-has-sold-38-million-Galaxy-Notes-so-far_id47260 According to Samsung, the first 2 models of the Note together sold nearly 40M. They expected the Note 3 would sell more and it did. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/12/10/interesting-number-samsungs-galaxy-note-3-alone-approaches-50-of-all-of-apples-iphone-sales/#3b415f9b737b to Forbes, According to Forbes, the Note 3 alone was 50% of the iPhones in just one quarter. The Note 3 sold 10M 60 days. That means about 5M per month. Which means that Apple only sold 30M or so. FORBES says Apple sold 33M of all selling iPhone models, while Samsung with just the Note 3 and S4 sold 50% of Apple total sales in one quarter. So what so you get if you lump all thr Galaxy sales together like Apple does with the iPhone. In that quarter Apple sold a total of 33M iPhones. Which means as I said earlier, the in one quarter has outsold individual selling models of the iPhone. It's prove the facts of what I said. Apple usually has several selling models and Samsung with justb2 phones were right on their butts. As I stated, it is proof positive as I said that Samsung on a single model does outsell the iPhone. If Apple only sold 33M iPhones in a September quarter where they have 4 models selling already and then they sell a new one, and yet 2 phones managed to be 50%, that means Apple only sold just over 5M of each selling model. Which means when the iPhone 6 came out, out of 75M sold phones, roughly a 3rd were the new model. In fact sales increased of the older model. That post your fanboy buddy did, proves me right again.http://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-says-new-iphone-sales-set-record-1443444521 Forbes wrote this article in Sept 2015 the same month the 6S was released. That means they had 13M pre-order sales. It took us 8 weeks to get the orders especially we ordered. Which means it took Apple nearly 2 months to fill those pre-order. Which means if the phones went into production 3 months earkier, Apple only could make 3-5M phones per month. Which means Apple maybe had up to 10M at release as it takes 4 weeks to be shipped by boat. Which is why both Samsung and Apple paid to fly phones over because of high demand. If Apple only ordered 90M pho especially to be sold in a year, that is roughly 22M per quarter. To sustain that, they would need to be able to produce 5.7M phones per month which is right around what I said. So out of 75M, a 3rd of 25M could have been the iPhone 6 and same for the 6S. The rest are made up of all the other selling models. This proves that Samsung does outsell the iPhone as a single model if you counted them separate. Just like all.selling Galaxy branded phones combined outsell the iPhone. After all how many Galaxy models do they make? Lots. There is no way 5 selling models of one phone could outsell a model that has 3 times as many models.

48. Ninetysix

Posts: 2964; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

LOL..you're really really dumb. http://www.statista.com/statistics/263401/global-apple-iphone-sales-since-3rd-quarter-2007/ Did you even go to school? How can you sell 50M - 75M per quarter if you're only making 3M-5M phones per month? Do you even know how many months there are per quarter? Freaking hilarious. http://appleinsider.com/articles/16/01/20/ubs-sees-record-75m-holiday-iphone-sales-driven-by-apples-lower-priced-models What is 67% of 75M?

51. Ninetysix

Posts: 2964; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

http://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-6-demand-challenges-apple-supplier-foxconn/ "We have been churning out 140,000 iPhone 6 Plus and 400,000 iPhone 6 every day, the highest daily output ever, but the volume is still not enough to meet the preorders," Now explain to me how they are only making 3M-5M per month again?

54. Mxyzptlk unregistered

Yup techie got owned hard, and he's posting his overly long essays again.

42. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

I think you should actually read what I said.

55. Mxyzptlk unregistered

If you would get to the point and stop posting essays, maybe people will actually read what you say.

70. Leo_MC

Posts: 7432; Member since: Dec 02, 2011

"This has been proven without numbers." How have the sale numbers been proven without numbers...?

35. sgodsell

Posts: 7368; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Apple ordered up to 90 million iPhone 6s's in July of 2015. http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/15/07/08/apple-orders-up-90-million-iphone-6s-units-with-force-touch-for-2015---report Before the iPhone 6s Apple ordered 70-80 million iPhone 6's in July 2014. So Apple is ordering less this time around.

15. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

Yeah..... that's not how sales mock-ups work lol. Even if it was, the Note has NEVER sold as well as your estimates project. In fact, the Note 5 model sold LESS UNITS THAN the previous two iterations. Partially due to the fact that the Android space is completely saturated. The Note series has NEVER SOLD 40 MILLION UNITS IN A QUARTER......EVER! Not only that, it's never reached that mark in three quarters, where are your numbers coming from?

20. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Are you really that stupid? I never said Samsung sold 40M Note's in a quarter... I SAID YEAR...STUPID. Not only are you stupid, you have selective seeing. This is what I said fool So when the Galaxy Note sells 40M in a year and you average that out over quarters, that means Samsung would have sold just as many or more Note or even the S if you went by just one model.. Would that be a fair assessment? 4 x 10M per quarter is 40M 51M / 5 selling model is 10M 200M Galaxies / 4 is 50M Again as per usual, you crazy fanbois never read what is actually said. I never said Samsung sold 40M Note's in a quarter. I did say there are times Samsung sold more phones of one model over Apple and that is a fact.

24. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

My mistake. However, the Note hasn't even sold as well as your yearly estimates either lol. And your iPhone projections are also very inaccurate. The iPhones don't sell all that evenly. In fact, it's believed that the number of iPhone 6 sold double the number if the Plus model. There hasn't been a single unit in any space to outsell the iPhone 6 model. Besides, what's there to be proud of? Even if they do sell more units, they end up making 1/14th the profit. So what good is this stat?

43. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

Because the Note is. Ot a Co sumer phone. It's a unique device with features that are advanced for most users. But the people I don't expect to have one, tend to have them. http://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsung-has-sold-38-million-Galaxy-Notes-so-far_id47260 According to Samsung, the first 2 models together solved near my 40M. They expected the Note 3 would sell more and it did. http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/12/10/interesting-number-samsungs-galaxy-note-3-alone-approaches-50-of-all-of-apples-iphone-sales/#3b415f9b737b to Forbes, According to Forbes, the Note 3 alone was 50% of the iPhones 6's in just one quarter. The Note 3 sold 10M 60 days. That means about 5M per month. Which means that Apple only sold In that quarter Apple sold a total of 33M iPhones. Which means as I said earlier, the in one quarter has outsold individual selling models of the iPhone

32. Nopers unregistered

Quick question, what does samsungs dick taste like?

33. Ninetysix

Posts: 2964; Member since: Oct 08, 2012

Taste like Kimchi perhaps? Please confirm TechieXP.

56. cheetah2k

Posts: 2256; Member since: Jan 16, 2011

Quick question, what does Tim Cock's cock taste like? I'm pretty sure you already know that answer bwahaha

57. sissy246

Posts: 7112; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

You need to ask Tim that

23. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

First off you have no idea how many they sell, because like Apple, Samsung never gives numbers. But what we do know is this. Samsung sells 80M phones every single quarter on average since the release of the S3. After reaching over 430M sales of all phones in 2011, their sales have not fallen below 300M per year. With me? Based on facts, we know that the Note and S combine for roughly 1/3 of those sales every year. So up to or at leats 100M of those phones are the sells of 2 models. At last report, the Note 5 sold the same numbers as the 4 did, and the S6 also sold as many as the S5. How do we know? We know because Samsung only lost 500,000 sales last quarter compared to the same quarter last year, while Apple lost 10M YOY. So analyst report Note 5 sales remain roughly the same, and S sales remained the same. Note 5 sales were hurt by no European model. Had no effect on US sales. Samsung also sold MORE product in the USA this year vs Apple. So those numbers show that more Note and S models were sold, because that is pretty much the only models that are sold here by Samsung other than some cheapo on prepaid and cheap carriers like Cricket.

27. kiko007

Posts: 7493; Member since: Feb 17, 2016

"Based on facts, we know that the Note and S combine for roughly 1/3 of those sales every year. So up to or at leats 100M of those phones are the sells of 2 models." There is no way that is accurate. Samsung makes 50 mobile models a year lol. There is no way TWO models make up a third of their sales. Add to that the fact the average Samsung device sells for under 200 USD, and your stats become bulls**t. If what you said were the actual case, then Samsung's mobile profits would skyrocket to just under 10%, which is not the case.

45. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

According to Apple Insider, Samsung stated the Note and S would have combine sales of 100,000,000 units. That would be 1/3 of 300M...right? http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/06/only-one-third-of-samsungs-smartphone-sales-are-in-the-class-of-apples-iphone-aapl

46. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

According to the article. Samsung said that would sell as many as360 in 2014 with 126M being Premium models. How many premium phones does Samsung Galaxy? It's the S and the Note. That is 1/3 of the sales

49. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

If I use thst nunber for refetence. Since Apple sold just under 200M phones last year, in a year that's roughly 40M for 5 selling models. Assuming a one year older model would sell way more phones than one that is even older, the 1 year previous model over a year would outsell the latest model for 2 quarters before it outsells the older one. http://bgr.com/2015/10/02/iphone-6s-iphone-6-sales-2/ According to BGR, that with 5 selling models Apple.sold k my 183M phones. Yet in 2014 126M phones sold by Samsung were just 2 models. According to Gartner, Samsung sold 390M phones in 2014. We know 1/3 were the Note and S. That was double the phones Apple sold in the whole world. The first a galaxy S outsold the first iPhone, the S2 has higher sales than Apple 2nd iPhone model. The S3 sold 50M in a single year. That outsold at each one iPhone model. The Apple fans who claimed no.oem would have a high selling single model like Apple, omit the fact Samsung does it every year since the release of the S and Note. I think I proved my point.

52. AppleVersusAndroid unregistered

Do you even read the articles you cite? DO YOU EVEN READ ANYTHING?! The article was published in OCTOBER OF 2015! The year was not over. The article itself STATES, and I will copy and paste it for you so you cannot argue against me with your IDIOTIC rhetoric: "In the first three quarters since launching the iPhone 6, Apple has sold a total number of 183.17 million iPhones" There are four parts to a quarter, did you know that? Four parts to a quarter. You said that Apple sold under 200 million phones last year, when they ended the year with around 230 million sold. So yeah, you're wrong, and stupid, and I cannot believe people actually read the crap you write.

38. AppleVersusAndroid unregistered

Stop talking! Everything you say is wrong. Just stop. Literally, wrong. "I don't need a source and I don't need to give you numbers." Well, yeah, you do if you're going to make claims that are completely wrong. So unless you know something we don't, you're wrong. Bye.

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