Apple's total iPhone sales could take a big hit in Q1 2019, yearly tally likely to decline as well

Apple's total iPhone sales could take a big hit in Q1 2019, yearly tally likely to decline as well
It’s no longer a big secret that iPhone XR demand has failed to meet the initial expectations of both Apple and most reputable industry analysts, but the steady popularity of the company’s older models and some encouraging recent signs in the supply chain suggested the overall decline in unit shipments wouldn’t be so bad after all.

Of course, other key iPhone XR parts suppliers are starting to struggle financially, while the iPhone XS and XS Max don’t appear to be selling like hotcakes either. As such, it shouldn’t be shocking to hear Ming-Chi Kuo (via 9To5Mac) further reduce his short-term forecasts for total iPhone shipment numbers.

Kuo remains one of the most respected (and active) Apple analysts in the world, even though he was expected to switch his focus to other companies after leaving KGI Securities back in April.

His latest estimates paint a pretty bleak picture for Apple’s pivotal mobile hardware business, which explains why the company recently revised the way it reports earnings, planning to stop detailing iPhone volumes from the next quarter.

If Ming-Chi Kuo is correct, iPhone sales numbers will slot somewhere between 38 and 42 million units during 2019’s first calendar quarter, which will technically be Apple’s second fiscal quarter of the year.

That wouldn't be a bad post-holiday season result for 99 percent of smartphone vendors out there, but for Apple, it could represent a significant decline compared to the over 50 million units sold worldwide between January and March 2018.

Kuo doesn’t expect the company to spectacularly bounce back either, with 188 to 194 million iPhone shipments forecasted for the entire next year, down significantly from 210 million or so in 2018.

As far as the iPhone XR is concerned, its numbers have been revised down as well, from up to 25 million units to as little as 15 million shipments in Q1 2019. At the end of the day, profits are still not expected to go down substantially... yet due to rising iPhone ASPs (average selling prices), but investors might be starting to get nervous.

Related phones

iPhone XR
  • Display 6.1" 828 x 1792 pixels
  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
  • Processor Apple A12 Bionic, Hexa-core, 2490 MHz
  • Storage 256 GB
  • Battery 2942 mAh(25h talk time)

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30 Comments

1. Panzer

Posts: 278; Member since: May 13, 2016

Fake news, the Apple brigade will be here soon to explain why.

2. Kuroki

Posts: 183; Member since: Nov 24, 2013

I guess people are getting smarter now eh?

3. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

"Kuo doesn’t expect the company to spectacularly bounce back either, with 188 to 194 million iPhone shipments forecasted for the entire next year, down significantly from 210 million or so in 2018. As far as the iPhone XR is concerned, its numbers have been revised down as well, from up to 25 million units to as little as 15 million shipments in Q1 2019. " This is quite significant according to midan da iLying iBro https://www.phonearena.com/news/Samsung-is-losing-the-mid-range-battle_id111937 Post #11 " last two q they lost combined 19 million of sales, quite significant for a company who's sales never been down more than few millions."

5. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

"This is quite significant according to midan da iLying iBro" So you don't see a difference in $500 phones selling 19 million less and $1000 phones selling 15 million less? Your low IQ, restaurant waiting brain failed you again.

7. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

iTrolling & iTriggered Nate Diaz Lover's not limited anymore?? How was China? iLMAOOOOO Clearly math isn't your thing. Can you even add or subtract? Or are you too punch drunk already? 210-188 = 22 & 210-194 = 16 so they're gonna sell 22~16 million less not 15 million you iGenius And who's gonna lose more money here? iLOL 500x19m or 1000x16~22m? Should've kept your mouth shut eh?? iLMAOOOOOOOOOO Are you going to go iHide now like you did here? Post #9 https://www.phonearena.com/news/Apple-patent-hole-in-display-selfie-camera_id110897 Before you go iHide again, please take your 'iL' with you iLOL

9. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

Lol you do realise 1000 dollar phones are less likely to sell than 500 phones right? IQ hah? If you can't sell your $500 phones, you definitely can't sell your $1000 phones. That explains why S9/S9+ didn't even sell 20 million in first 6 months, forget Note. Not everyone can afford that, especially kids like you who wait tables definitely can't. And don't talk about money, Apple's margin is way more than Samsungs. Even if they stop selling phones, Apple could still buy Samsung twice. Changed Samsung's bum life buying them OLEDs they didn't have no buyers. Dude you searched that article and linked it here ah how desperate and talking about L lol?

10. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

So that link iTriggers you eh? iLOL "Lol you do realise 1000 dollar phones are less likely to sell than 500 phones right?" Is that what were discussing? Since you can't add or subtract, we now have to discuss what people can or can't afford & Apple's margin?? Don't get so iEmotional iBro and like I said before, before you go iHide again, please take your 'iL' with you iLMAOOOOOO

13. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

Midan said Samsung's midrange down by 19 million. You said iPhones down by 16-22 million. That means Samsung can't sell their 500 dollar phone but you want 1000 dollar iPhones to be best selling every quarter. Isn't that what we're discussing? Or you have reading comprehension problems now? You've had a late shift waiting tables hah? Minds not working?

16. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

"You said iPhones down by 16-22 million. That means Samsung can't sell their 500 dollar phone but you want 1000 dollar iPhones to be best selling every quarter. Isn't that what we're discussing?" Oh so that's what I want now? iLMAOOOOO If an iTrolling iTriggered internet tough guy aka Nate Diaz Lover who were limited for the past week says it, it must be true! Again, before you go iHide or get limited again, please take your 'iL' with you ;)

17. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

"Oh so that's what I want now? iLMAOOOOO" You want deeznuts and nothing else. And you shouldn't really talk about Nate Diaz when you have a bitmoji as your avatar. Well I shall go hide now I guess.

27. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

Oh wait, you left your 'iL' here iLMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

20. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

But if Apple had actually sold 15M+ phones, then you would be chiming Ap ppl less can sell uys $1000 phones an no one else can. See opportunist fans like you are so predictable. I won't even argue about sales, because I have never sold millions of things I've made to this point 5 successful apps for iOS and 2 for Android and none are sold on the open market and I'm making very good money. Oh and there are people waiting tables who are very smart and highly talented. You know, many if today's celebrities, were once jobless and homeless. So no doubt they are doing far better than you. Oh and muscles? Muscles aren't intimidating anymore. The way to deal with muscles is to just use a gun. So go hide your muscle bruh. Hand to hand combat is a thing if the past. That ceap you talk here. You would never say to anyones face. Because if you did, well you'd probably wouldn't be here.

21. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

The other day you were working in a company, you said you could buy 1000 iPhones in one go now you're making money by developing apps. No ones buying your lame ass stories. And I don't give a s**t about your apps.

30. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

What does my job have to do with making apps? I didn't say anything about my job. I simply mention I make apps. And yes I make very good money and I certainly can buy 1000's of iPhones. $100,000 isnt a lot of money if you already have it. I dont understand what that has to do with what I said. See its just like an item who cabt argue a good pii in t, to try to detract from the argument. But dude I dont argue with people like you. Let me be clear. I like iPhones too and I have bought lots of devices from Apple. And even if I didn't, I can still have whatever opinion of them I want. Stick to the argument . In fact no one is even arguing. You're pissed because you just told off and your answer was so lame. As soon as you realized you were wrong, you went right in the attack. Just like a typical Apple fanboy. Why do you care about sales. Sales always go up and down. Every product eventually hits a ceiling. Apple prematurely created an artificial ceiling because of their pricing. Expensive things still sell. But expensive things cant outsell cheap things. U fans get so worked up over a frikkin brand name. All corporations are all greedy opportunists. You cant win all the time bruh. Same thing I tell my kid. When you play a gane you should enjoy it equally whether you win ir lose, because those are the inky 2 outcomes and you're probably gonna lose more than win many times.

32. NateDiaz

Posts: 1082; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

1000 x 1000 is 1 million not 100000. Also, as far as I remember what you said in some other thread, you are yet to graduate. Which company hired you without a degree? Your lies lol.

34. midan

Posts: 2557; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"And yes I make very good money and I certainly can buy 1000's of iPhones. $100,000 isnt a lot of money if you already have it." Your math is out of this world :D

4. koioz

Posts: 132; Member since: Nov 29, 2018

What will you expect from a piece of crapware.

6. rouyal

Posts: 1564; Member since: Jan 05, 2018

Samsung just shut down a mobile factory in China to slow sales. They also have the biggest smartphone sales decline since Gartner started tracking it. If this site put these stories on here, you’d all be calling it “iPhoneArena”.

24. worldpeace

Posts: 3092; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

I'm not sure why you bring that topic, but.. PA did write about Samsung's factory closing in China. They also write about Gartner's marketshare report each quarter.

11. Donone41

Posts: 246; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

Time for apple to revise its pricing strategy. The garbage iPhone Xr, Xs and Xs max does not worth their asking price. $400 for those featureless trash would've been a better starting price.

12. midan

Posts: 2557; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"Apple's total iPhone sales could take a big hit in Q1 2019" COULD! Yeah nothing to see here, Kuo also thought iPhone X sales were bad and Apple proved him and many others wrong, he also had very very high expectations for XR sales before it was even launched, now he figured out that he's prediction was way off and try to turn it. It's very hard to predict how the iPhone sales going to be for invdual models or combned because iPhone portfolio is wider and they offer different kind of iPhones. First kuo expected XR sales alone to be 100 million which is so crazy for one model when they have 4-5 models which are selling well.

18. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1158; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

Even the iPhone X sales didn't meet the initial expectations though. The ASP going up managed to keep the difference relatively small for the revenue. The expected supercycle for Apple never came. Apple opting not to share sales numbers anymore was a clear response to less than expected sales. Apple's growth the past 2 years was at a near standstill, somewhere around 1.5% in 2017 and about 0.4% in 2018 so far. That doesn't bode well for 2019. There have been several indications that sales are unexpectedly lower, Apple's own actions have strongly implied that too. Apple has hit its sales ceiling, only place to go is down.

14. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

Hahaha. Apples greed has finally caught up with them. The XR is $1000 outside the US. What a joke. Apppe you priced everyone out of affordability and factually none of them are worth what they cost because Qpple has cut corners. After Jerry showed the new uaoad bending like papers many aren't buying that overpriced garbage can either. Apple could lost well over 1l20M+ sales all due to pricing gauging and trying ro charge for things that either were free. Or should be included. Many Android OEMs include cases, far larger batteries, premium accessories, adapters, and more for less money than what Apple charges who gives mews. And yes these ignorant fans jump on every opportunity to attack Android users. The same thing these losers did for years with Macs vs PC. They know we have the better stuff. It's so ironic how they have to "act" like they have the better stuff. This is exactly what Apple gets. I am better of the course of 4 quarters, Apple has lost at least 30am sales. I am basing that number off the fact, Apple projected 50M sales for the original X last year. And a month later they from those sales by 20M. Then it was projected the XR would now be the chosen one to start the super cycle because it was only $750. But then at $1000 outside the US, their cheap option is at flagship price and it isnt even a flagship device. Charging for dongles that were included free. All products have risen ateast 30$ over thr last year. The Apple pencil is now $30 more all because they made it easier to charge which is how it should have been from the beginning. Its shows that Xiamoi and Oppo and Huawei are all racking up on lost iPhone sales. Several fans claimed Android sales dont effect Apple sales all that much if at all. That's a lie. Facts show its Apple sales that have had little effect on at least the top Android sellers. Samsung has sold 300M!+ phones since 2011 consistantly l with full competition, even while Apple sales climbed with the iPhone 6 and 6S. But Huawei has past Apple for now several quarters in a row and even though Ssmsung sales have fallen. I bet they still sold 300M phones this year, while Apple probably fell below 200M. The fans can blame yourselves for just buying overhyped products that were limited feature phones in a pretty case. Samsung actually has competition on Andeoid. APPLE has zero competition on iOS. Attention all devs, iOS is about to not ne the money maker it use to be. Abandon ship!!! SS Android is here to save you and we won't rape you of your deserve payout for your hard work.

15. kEaNu

Posts: 34; Member since: May 10, 2018

Didnt read lol

23. rouyal

Posts: 1564; Member since: Jan 05, 2018

No one does.

26. midan

Posts: 2557; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Meant to write exact same line

29. Jrod99

Posts: 696; Member since: Jan 15, 2016

Prices just too high and people learning you can use a phone for 5 years. Still Apple is a long way from being Blackberry and HTC. It’s funny to watch the Apple haters creme the britches. Hope they have plenty of tissue. Lol.

31. sunnyfpy

Posts: 272; Member since: May 12, 2013

Who cares?...

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