Leaked render of Apple’s foldable iPhone. | Image by FPT
The iPhone Fold is clearly one of the most anticipated smartphones this year, but it’s still a foldable phone, and those are not very popular. However, Apple may be preparing to sell so many foldable iPhone devices that it could reshape the whole market.
Apple plans to produce 20% more iPhone Fold units
Apple has boosted the initial inventory volume for the first foldable iPhone by 20%. With that increase, the company is aiming to have an initial stocking quantity of 11 million units, according to information shared (source in Chinese) by Weibo leaker Fixed Focus Digital.
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In a separate post (source in Chinese), the leaker claims that the iPhone Fold is certainly launching this year. While there’s a slight chance of a delay, the foldable should launch no more than a month after the iPhone 18 Pro.
Contradicting rumors
The foldable iPhone will probably look great. | Image by Fpt.
Both of these earlier reports came from South Korea and were based on information leaks from Samsung, while Fixed Focus Digital’s claims are based on the Chinese supply chain. Still, that doesn’t explain the huge difference in the rumored number of phones Apple plans to manufacture.
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There’s a middle ground
Apple’s real manufacturing goal is most likely to be somewhere between the two rumored numbers. The company is widely expected to dominate the foldable smartphone market this year, but that market is not very big.
A report by analyst firm IDC from late last year estimated that the global foldables market will reach a little over 20 million shipments in 2025. The same report included a forecast that foldables will record a 29.7% growth in 2026, largely because of Apple.
The iPhone Fold is expected to grab about 22% of the whole market in 2026. Doing some back-of-the-envelope calculations, that would secure Apple about 6 million shipments of its foldable by the end of this year.
Apple is said to be starting slow with the iPhone Fold production as it wants to gauge interest in the device, which could be a good idea. Fixed Focus Digital also said that the manufacturing cost of an Apple foldable is up to five times higher than that of a standard iPhone model, making it a risky bet.
Fierce competition
Render of the Galaxy Z Fold Wide. | Image by Android Headlines
One of the factors that could affect both the launch date and the success of the iPhone Fold is the manufacturing price. The company has reportedly cleared the component delivery, but it’s still negotiating manufacturing price and material selection, which could lead to a slight delay.
Those challenges could influence two of the most important factors for the success of the iPhone Fold. The more obvious one is the price, which is expected to be over $2,000, but some rumors put it at as much as $2,400. However, a potential delay could also impact sales negatively, as there will be less time for consumers to buy their devices ahead of the holidays.
How much would you pay for an iPhone Fold?
Another challenge for Apple will be Samsung’s slate of foldables, which are expected to launch in late July. Alongside the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8, the Korean company is expected to launch a Galaxy Z Fold Wide.
That new model will have the same wide form factor as the iPhone Fold, but it is rumored to come at a lower price than the Z Fold 8. That would certainly make it cheaper than Apple’s foldable, which could be a key advantage amid the rising smartphone prices this year.
It’s still the year of the foldables
Apple has had its fair share of relatively unsuccessful experiments with the iPhone Air and the Plus and mini iPhones before it. I don’t think the iPhone Fold sales will be a failure among other foldables, but I’m also sure Apple doesn’t expect it to reshape its business.
What the iPhone Fold will certainly achieve is to introduce foldables to people who aren’t that deep into the smartphone world. Whether they will buy those phones remains to be seen, though.
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Ilia, a tech journalist at PhoneArena, has been covering the mobile industry since 2011, with experience at outlets like Forbes Bulgaria. Passionate about smartphones, tablets, and consumer tech, he blends deep industry knowledge with a personal fascination that began with his first Nokia and Sony Ericsson devices. Originally from Bulgaria and now based in Lima, Peru, Ilia balances his tech obsessions with walking his dog, training at the gym, and slowly mastering Spanish.
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