Is the iPhone Air a flop in the making or should Apple be more patient with it?
The early movement on the pre-order front for Apple's latest iPhones doesn't look great for the Air, begging the obvious question - will this ultimately go the way of the dodo (and iPhone Plus line)?
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Are you looking to get your hands on the first-of-a-kind iPhone Air on its release day, but haven't placed your pre-order yet for some reason? Don't worry, you can still visit Apple's official US website, choose one of several different storage variants and colorways, and the tech giant guarantees your sleek new handset will be delivered on September 19.
That's this Friday, believe it or not, which is certainly good news for many Apple fans, but probably not for Apple shareholders. Tim Cook himself seems primarily focused on (indirectly) hyping up the iPhone Air while discussing his company's latest big US investments, and yet the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max appear to be generating higher global demand across the board, at least on the surface.
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Could the iPhone Air be a bigger hit than we think?
In theory, anything is possible until Apple comes out with some official sales figures for its newest iPhones (which may never happen) or until a reputable market research firm releases a comprehensive report reliably estimating the box-office performance of each individual member of this handset family.
For the time being, all we have is Ming-Chi Kuo's analysis of first-weekend pre-orders based on both inside information and what's publicly available on Apple's website, and my own (updated) outlook on said public info.
The iPhone Air is certainly not a bad product, but it's probably not as successful as Apple predicted either, at least for the time being. | Image Credit -- Apple
As of today, September 16, the most in-demand iPhone Air models are listed at Apple as ready to ship in the US in "2-3 weeks", while practically no iPhone 17 Pro Max variant is available earlier than "3-4 weeks" down the line. What's worse is that (too) many Air configurations can still be delivered this Friday, while the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro cannot, keeping new buyers waiting for "2-3 weeks" across the board.
Now, there is a possibility that Apple perfectly prepared for the iPhone Air's debut, anticipating your demand like never before. After all, Kuo does claim that the model's Q3 "build plan" was thrice that of the iPhone 16 Plus this time last year.
But do we really think that the company somehow predicted the early sales numbers of a "pioneering" device like the iPhone Air better than those of the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max, all of which had so many forerunners and so many ways to hint at their performance?
How big of a hit do you think the iPhone Air could become?
Bigger than all iPhone 17 models
14.29%
Bigger than the iPhone 17 Pro Max
2.04%
Bigger than the iPhone 17 Pro
10.2%
Bigger than the iPhone 16 Plus at least
20.41%
I believe it's going to be a flop
53.06%
I certainly don't think so, and I also believe that even if Apple could have magically seen the future, it wouldn't have produced precisely as many Air units as it needed to perfectly handle your initial demand. It's called maintaining an illusion of success not aligned with reality, and I believe it's actually what the company is doing with the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max.
When should Apple panic?
If recent history is any indication, I think we're already past that point or at least we're approaching the point very quickly. Look, I'm not saying the iPhone 16 Plus was a huge hit, but it wasn't the colossal flop many analysts made it look like, and even if it was, Apple's poor marketing around the device certainly played a key role in its downfall.
For a little while there last year, it seemed like the iPhone 16 and 16 Plus could outsell the 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max, but as ominous iPhone 17 Plus rumors ramped up, everyone quickly forgot about the least popular member of the iPhone 16 family.
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And here's the thing - one device has to get that title, and there's really no shame in being the least successful phone in a super-successful series. If Apple can learn to live with that and stop making changes for the sake of change every three or four years, I believe the iPhone Air line can (eventually) thrive... or at least survive in an often ruthless industry.
But if Cupertino has decided to bet big on the "new" ultra-thin flagship concept, I hope the iPhone Air will get more respect than the iPhone 14 Plus or iPhone 12 mini no matter how the initial demand looks and even regardless of where sales numbers will stand months down the line. This is a brand that already sells the three most popular smartphones in the world (as well as the sixth product on that list), and the only way for the iPhone Air to maybe crack the top ten a year or two from now is the PPP strategy - patience and persistent promotion.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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