Q1 smartphone shipment growth is a stunner as Apple and Samsung swap places
With forecasts of a double-digit percentage drop in smartphone shipments this year, 2026 got off to a surprising start.
Apple and Samsung swap places on Omdia's latest report. | Image by Apple
For some time now we’ve expected a weak global smartphone market for 2026. Back in March, we told you that analytical shop Counterpoint was forecasting a huge 12.4% decline for 2026 global smartphone deliveries, and even worse, IDC was looking for a slightly larger 12.9% decline.
Smartphone prices rise as manufacturers deal with shortages of these two components
Part of the problem is a shortage of DRAM memory chips, which has caused phone manufacturers to pay more for the component and that should lead to higher prices for handsets this year. However, 2026 is off to a better than expected start according to Omdia, which now forecasts a 15% drop in smartphone shipments this year.
Omdia's first quarter 2026 numbers have been released, and it shows that smartphone shipments unexpectedly rose during the first quarter of 2026, albeit only by 1%. DRAM memory and NAND storage prices both rose 90% from Q4 of 2025 to Q1 2026, but this sharp price hike has yet to make its way through the supply chain. For Q2, Omdia looked into its crystal ball and saw a further 30% increase in DRAM and NAND prices quarter-over-quarter.
Strong pre-orders for the Galaxy S26 line helped Samsung return to the top spot
During the first three months of 2026, Samsung took back the top position among smartphone manufacturers from Apple. Strong pre-orders for the new Galaxy S26 line, up 10% compared to Galaxy S25 pre-orders, helped Samsung capture 22% of global smartphone shipments from January through March topping the 20% Q1 share that Apple had.
Samsung takes back the top spot in global smartphone shipments from Apple during Q1. | Image by Omdia
During the final quarter of 2025, Apple led the way with a 25% slice of the global smartphone pie compared to 18% for Samsung. While Apple slipped back in the standings during the first quarter of this year, it still was able to benefit from the continuing appreciation for the iPhone 17 series.
There is a big dropoff in market share after Samsung and Apple
After Samsung and Apple, there is a huge dropoff as Xiaomi took the third spot with a market share of 11% for the first quarter, flat with its performance during Q4 of 2025. Oppo and vivo finished fourth and fifth for Q1 2026 with market shares of 10% and 7% respectively. Both claimed 8% of the market during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Will the smartphone market show a double-digit shipping fall in 2026?
Runar Bjorhovde, Principal Analyst at Omdia, says, "The worst is still ahead as cost-driven headwinds weigh on the smartphone value chain." He says that consumers are putting off smartphone purchases thanks to the "demand shock" caused by higher prices.
Helping the industry grow shipments 1% in Q1 was the manufacturers' practice of "front loading." This means that they purchased DRAM memory and NAND storage components before the price hike, allowing the number of phone shipments to grow before stiffer prices force consumers to suffer sticker shock reducing shipments.
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