Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says iPhone shipments for the current product cycle "have peaked"


KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is known for making accurate forecasts to clients when it comes to all things Apple. In a note to investors that leaked out on Saturday, Kuo posted some forecasts about Apple's upcoming fiscal second quarter report that is expected to be released after the market closes on Monday. The analyst sees Apple reporting iPhone shipments of 58.3 million units for the January through March period. That would be a drop of 21.8% from the previous quarter's iPhone shipments, which amounted to 74.5 million units. On the other hand, it is an increase of 33.3% from last year's fiscal second quarter number.

The analyst says that iPhone shipments for this product cycle have peaked with the 74.5 million units Apple shipped in its fiscal first quarter. If his predictions are correct, the aforementioned 58.3 million iPhones shipped in its fiscal Q2 will drop 11.6% in fiscal Q3 to 51.5 million handsets. That would still represent a year-over-year gain of 46.2% in the number of iPhones shipped during the quarter. 

Kuo also dusted off his trusty abacus and calculated that 631,000 units of the Apple Watch shipped in its first appearance during the fiscal second quarter. While Wall Street was looking for 2 million to 3 million units of the timepiece to ship during the period, Kuo blamed labor shortages and low yields of key components like the Tactic feedback vibrator and the timepiece's AMOLED display, for the lower than expected number of watches shipped in the quarter. 

Kuo expects Apple to ship 3.8 million units of the Apple Watch for the company's fiscal third quarter, which started this month and ends in June. Not only is the analyst's forecast below Wall Street's consensus estimate of 5 to 10 million units, it is below the 4.5 million Apple Watches that the company will build during the three month period.

The analyst is blaming "industry structural changes" for a rather large 52.7% drop in iPad shipments from fiscal Q1 to Q2. The 10.1 million tablets Apple is estimated to have shipped in its fiscal second quarter is a 38.1% decline from the 16.3 million iPads it shipped in the same quarter a year ago. Declining iPad shipments, partially due to the successful launch of the Apple iPhone 6 Plus phablet, will continue next quarter as well with Kuo predicting a further quarter-to-quarter 28.5% drop in shipments of Apple's slate.

Apple will release its second fiscal quarter earnings on Monday following the 4pm EDT close of financial markets in the U.S. We will provide you with the figures as soon as they are made public.

via: AppleInsider

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61 Comments

1. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

As long as dumbos are willing to buy rotten apples they will sell like hell

3. Jamoga

Posts: 187; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

funny youre the wise one. most dumbos are earning more than you are. show hatred somewhere else.

8. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

Well i dont earn but im pretty good at academics (im 17 teen ) and i own a s6 64gb which is on the same stand as ip6 in price but its a way too better phone my parents expect good grades and i get wht i want Jamoga how much do you earn

15. Jamoga

Posts: 187; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

question is how can someone be dump and not own an iphone :/ you surely defy your words. labelling someone dumb while owning an iphone lol. you knw how many sucessful people use iphones? businessman, doctors and so much more. 17 years, still time to grow up. phone doesnt give mentality to people. dumb is the one who thinks so.

47. FluffyBled unregistered

Well you're really dumb if you think iPhone is a key to success ... or even dumber if you think doctors and/or businessmen know much about technology! Don't take it personal(just trying to show you that everyone can be called dumb in some particular way :P) and please end the "dumb" case!

73. Jamoga

Posts: 187; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

what part of my comment you didnt understand? how dumb are you in that case :/ i had stated that '' phone doesnt give mentality to people. dumb is the one who thinks so'' not iphone, not any android, they can only give knowlegde, not mentality to people. and for the fact, doctors and businessman, use it for a reason. they dont get hangup on phones, hence, they got life and sucess with it.

18. jellmoo

Posts: 2630; Member since: Oct 31, 2011

I'm kind of amused that you portray iPhone owners as "dumb", but then go on to admit owning what is essentially the iPhone of the Android world.

39. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

iphone of android world ....lol my s6 is better than ip6 in all aspects lets have a ip6 vs s6 feature comparision

44. jellmoo

Posts: 2630; Member since: Oct 31, 2011

-No expandable storage -Low battery life -Non user acceisble battery -Pay a high premium for additional storage -Introduce two models, one at a higher price point for dubious value The s6 is not a bad phone. I actually like it a lot. But the tradeoffs they made with it make it essentially the iPhone of the Android world.

60. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

The S6 is everything you all wished the iPhone was. A phone made out of better materials and is a powerhouses with top dog specs too.

71. gaming64 unregistered

One TechieXP1969 to give cancer to all and in the cancer kill them.

74. Jamoga

Posts: 187; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

really, the sides and all looks similar to iphones. dont believe me, look at reviews of pocketnow and others. top dog specs too do what? foolish specheads!

23. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Now that you stated your age, I know never to take you serious. You have yet to enter the real world kiddo. Enjoy your life bro, don't let this site turn you into an asshole. Keep the high grades up, you'll need the transcripts in the real world.

42. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

thanks for your advice jedii and i've used ip4 few years ago just for siri and have to say i loved it I hate apple yes i do cuz they loot money for no reason and itunes is a burden well millions love apple and their products but i've never seen apple pay heed to customers ,dont spend much on r&d but jedii thank you once again

46. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

All good my man, just remember different strokes for different folks. Apple and Samsung are my two favs, but I built a huge vestment in iOS, so it only makes sense to stay with it. Overall I prefer iOS to android, but prefer several android features to iOS. In the end we have several platforms and handsets to choose from. No need to battle. My best friend, and two of my 3 closes sister use android, it's all love. Me and my older sister battle every time we see each other about our phones. Again it's all love. I don't get caught up in the business strategies of these companies, all of em have the same one. Build cheap sell high, absorb the little guy. You'll see in a few years.

61. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

So what is the problem in having an Android phone and just get an iPad?

66. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I really really wish you'd stop responding to my posts. Do you purposely try to be irritating and stupid? If I wanted an android phone is have one, had plenty, and prefer iPhones to them. Go away, and please stop being a ranting bothersome bugaboo.

69. gaming64 unregistered

He is attracted to your manly pecs. Change your profile pic and I promised he wouldn't stalk you anymore

72. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

LMAOOOOO good one +1

9. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

owning ip6 doesnt make somebody rich but it sure makes them dumb just like you jamoga

14. Jamoga

Posts: 187; Member since: Dec 17, 2014

in that case, you surely own an iphone.

24. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Yep, you're 17.

36. gaming64 unregistered

17 and yet you have no respect for others. Grades don't measure intelligence and age doesn't define maturity

43. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

i do respect elders and seriously dont know your or anybody elses age and im relatively new to this site and wht is avg user age on this again???

48. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I'm over the age of 30.

49. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

so im supposed to ca

50. darkkjedii

Posts: 31338; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Yeah ca, whatever that means.

53. TheBiz

Posts: 232; Member since: Apr 13, 2015

oh that comment just cut off what i was sayin is so im supposed to call you uncle jedii

62. TechieXP1969

Posts: 14967; Member since: Sep 25, 2013

He smart enough to know when someone is stupid. I agree with him that the vast majority of people who buy an iPhone are stupid. But at least I can explain. I bought 2 of them. I made a choice too and I mostly bought it for the same reasons most do, popularity. But I learned from my mistakes. If all you need is FB and Twitter and email and surfing, thee are phones just as capable as the iPhone for 1/2 the cost. After all, I can buy a phone made in 2012 for about $300 and it has the same or better specs and capabilities than the iPhone 6. Like Dark said, yeah plenty of smart people own iPhones. But just because they are smart enough to be a doctor, doesn't mean they can be smart in everything they do. Because that certainly isn't fact. The vast majority buy the iPhone because its popular and because of looks. Because those take priority in the purchase decision, that makes them both stupid. Since you cant look at a person and assume they made an educated decision to buy it, then it means I'm right. Because the fact us the vast majority buy it because its popular. Also, considering what you get fir the cost, you'd have to be stupid to pay $700 for spec from 2 year ago, I don't care whose phone its in. Even Samsung's Galaxy Alpha was an overpriced POS with 2012 specs and they wanted to much. Which is why it didn't sell. The other issue is once you spend to much money with iOS media, you have no choice but to stick with it. But you don't have to buy an iPhone. I bought the original Mini and that is all I need. Whenever Apple stops supporting it then oh well. I am still using the same apps I was using when I had my iPhone 4/4S.; so I will use it until it dies permanently. Also I know old cats who are disrespectful. He is plenty old enough to make a good observation even if you don't agree with it.

70. gaming64 unregistered

TechieXP1969 logic I am a specs hungry beast who will only acknowledge phones like the S6 because I am blind and I dont give a crap whether people get cancer because of my long posts.

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