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Morgan Stanley's iPhone Tracker shows Apple selling 56.5 million units this quarter

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Morgan Stanley's iPhone Tracker shows Apple selling 56.5 million units this quarter
This time last year, Apple was about to wrap up a quarter that saw it sell 61.2 million units of the Apple iPhone. That is the magic number of handset sales that Apple has to surpass this quarter to prevent it from reporting lower year-over-year  quarterly iPhone sales for the first time in history. Many figured it would have happened last quarter, but Apple managed to sell a record 74.8 million iPhones during its fiscal first quarter. That topped the previous year's Q1 sales figure of 74.5 million iPhones.

According to Morgan Stanley's Apple analyst Katy Huberty, "Our Asia tech team led by Jasmine Lu believes supply chain inventory digestion has come to an end."  Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise iPhone Tracker is calling for 56.5 million units to be sold during the current quarter. The brokerage firm itself sees Apple selling 49 million iPhones from January through March, while Apple expects to sell 52 million.

According to Huberty, China has been providing the strongest growth of any country that is monitored on the AlphaWise iPhone Tracker despite a weak economy in Greater China, including Hong Kong. She expects Apple to build 40 million new iPhones during its second and third fiscal quarters. That is a sign of strength for Apple, which historically has a percentage decline in iPhone production in the low- to high-teens from fiscal Q2 to fiscal Q3.

A wild card here is the 4-inch Apple iPhone SE. Huberty says that the phone could ship in time to have some units count during the current quarter (which ends on March 27th), but the majority of those units will ship during the June quarter. And that partially explains the strength in that period's production numbers that we discussed above.

"Last week, Apple sent invitations for an event on their campus on Monday, March 21," the analyst commented. "They will likely announce a refresh to the current 4" iPhone (5s), which has been in the market since September 2013. It's possible the new iPhone ships before the end of the March quarter (ends 3/27) but the bulk of the contribution will come in the June quarter, helping explain better than seasonal builds."-Katy Huberty, analyst, Morgan Stanley

Despite the better than expected numbers forecast by the iPhone Tracker, it would appear that Apple will still report a historic year-over-year decline in iPhone sales when the current quarter's numbers are released late next month.


Thanks for the tip!

source: StreetInsider via SeekingAlpha

20 Comments
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posted on 15 Mar 2016, 12:56 6

1. Adreno (banned) (Posts: 755; Member since: 12 Mar 2016)


Nice decline in sales. At least, Android OEMs could then get better market share.

posted on 16 Mar 2016, 02:56 1

56. amasog (Posts: 346; Member since: 22 Aug 2013)


decline in iphone sales doesn't automatically mean increase in android phone sales.

try to do simple logic or some probability analysis. LOL!

posted on 16 Mar 2016, 03:29

60. Adreno (banned) (Posts: 755; Member since: 12 Mar 2016)


@amasog

Didn't Apple brag about having experienced the highest rate of Android users switching over to iOS?

I've personally seen people ditching Android for iOS because of Apple's fast updates and long-term support of it's iPhones.

If Apple's sales decine, it'll leave room for Android OEMs to sell even more phones!

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:01 7

2. natypes (Posts: 1092; Member since: 02 Feb 2015)


Honestly, they are probably just feeling the loss due to very incremental progression of the devices.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:04 12

5. MrHate (Posts: 226; Member since: 09 Feb 2015)


Of course the sales will decline. The 6s didn't over anything major and all the people who waited years for a bigger iPhone got the 6 already. Why buy the 6s if it is just a small update? But I'm pretty sure that for 2016 the overall iPhone sales will rise by a lot due to the iPhone SE coming out and Apple being able to target more markets other than the high end market with it.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:50 4

25. bucky (Posts: 2563; Member since: 30 Sep 2009)


To me it's a mixture of 3 things.

1-saturation of smartphones (most people have them now)
2-cheap powerful alternatives
3-on contract prices. Here in Canada I inquired into a 64gb 6s and it was $500 plus tax PLUS a 2 year contract and an extra $25 per month for phone financing. That's just ridiculous.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 15:18 5

44. willard12 (Posts: 1677; Member since: 04 Jul 2012)


The smartphone market is saturated and the need to upgrade them is beginning to be like the need to upgrade tablets. It happened to Samsung 2 years ago. It happening to Apple now. If it weren't for the larger screen and earlier release in China, it would have happened 6 months ago.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:19

7. lyndon420 (Posts: 4370; Member since: 11 Jul 2012)


Apple Watch sales (not shipped)...when can we see those numbers?

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:23 7

10. ctdog4748 (Posts: 285; Member since: 05 Mar 2016)


Samsung Gear S2 sales numbers; when can we see them?

posted on 16 Mar 2016, 03:21

58. tedkord (Posts: 11626; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


The difference is Apple traditionally announces sales numbers, while Samsung doesn't.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:25 13

11. twens (Posts: 978; Member since: 25 Feb 2012)


Hmmm, when will people on this site grow some common sense. Apple is the only company selling IOS enabled devices. The planet is still filled with millions of people who like iOS based devices so Apple will forever make money. I keep repeating this, if only one OEM manufactured android based device eg Samsung, the numbers will equally be same or even be more than what Apple is making. It's simple logic.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:36 3

18. saif2711 (Posts: 69; Member since: 22 Feb 2016)


The number will still be higher than what s7+s7 edge achieve in the whole year or may be lifetime.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 15:07 6

43. sissy246 (Posts: 994; Member since: 04 Mar 2015)


Yeah it will sale more then Samsung. There is only one IOS, Samsung has to compete with alot of other android phones.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 13:51 2

27. natypes (Posts: 1092; Member since: 02 Feb 2015)


Quit responding to chocolatesaucemaker and just report him. He's just a troll anyway. Probably someone who got banned and made another account.

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 14:06 10

30. Ordinary (Posts: 2316; Member since: 23 Apr 2015)


Damn multi-accounts, back at it again

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 18:00

50. xfire99 (Posts: 827; Member since: 14 Mar 2012)


Shipped not sold:https://gigaom.com/2013/05/09/what-apple-really-means-when-it-says-it-has-sold-a-product/

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 20:13 1

52. coldspring22 (Posts: 311; Member since: 28 Feb 2015)


Exactly. The historic first ever YOY iphone sales decline has already occurred in Q1 2016. Apple sold only 71.5 million iphone (vs 74.5 million iphones in Q1 2015) to end consumers. This is from Gartner which only count iphones sold to end customers. What Apple was celebrating as "record" was record sales channel stuffing. Over 3.3 million iphones were sitting in warehouses and store shelves unsold and Apple was counting it as "SOLD" to customers. What a bunch of crap from Cupertino!!! Apple brass cannot even be honest about it's sales numbers any more!

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 18:02

51. jadjr (Posts: 32; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


I hope people will stop spending their money on overpriced things. I'm not saying it's bad but it surely doesn't deserve all the hype

posted on 15 Mar 2016, 20:20

53. coldspring22 (Posts: 311; Member since: 28 Feb 2015)


This article is WRONG!! Apple's first historic iphone sales decline already took place in Q1 2016!! Iphone sales dropped to 71.5 million units from 74.5 million in Q1 2015 (Per Gartner).

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Gartner-iPhone-sales-declined-year-over-year-in-Q4-2015-for-the-first-time-in-history_id78486

posted on 16 Mar 2016, 03:24

59. tedkord (Posts: 11626; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


I disagree. Sold is sold. If Apple received payment, then the devices were sold.

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