According to those familiar with the thinking of the Trump administration, the U.S. government is considering giving Nvidia permission to sell the Nvidia H200 AI accelerator chip in China. The chip is designed to speed up AI computations. These Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) use parallel processing allowing them to run matrix multiplication calculations over thousands of cores simultaneously.
Whether or not Nvidia is allowed to sell the H200 in China will be a decision made by the U.S. Commerce Department, which handles U.S. export controls. Not wanting China, especially its military, to get its hands on powerful AI chips like the Nvidia H200, the U.S. government had banned sales of Nvidia's most powerful AI chips to that country. But that move backfired since it allowed Huawei to grow its domestic AI accelerator business while reducing Nvidia's revenue in China.
Nvidia's H200 is twice as powerful as the most powerful Nvidia AI accelerator the U.S. allows to be shipped to China
Even though a White House official, and the Commerce Department, refused to comment on the matter, the administration did release a quote which doesn't mention anything about the matter at hand involving Nvidia. "The administration is committed to securing America's global technology leadership and safeguarding our national security," said the White House official. Those are standard objectives for every administration that has worked at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Nvidia hopes for a greenlight allowing it to ship the H200 AI accelerator to China. | Image credit-Nvdia
Nvidia's H200 chip was launched a couple of years ago. With more high-bandwidth memory than the H100 AI accelerator, the H200 processes data faster. The chip is manufactured by TSMC using its 4nm process node and features the Hopper core architecture. It is also twice as powerful as Nvidia's H20 GPU which is currently the most powerful AI chip from Nvidia that the U.S. will allow to be shipped to China. The Nvidia H200 is made for Large Language Models (LLM) and high-performance computing (HPC) units. It features 141GB of HBM3e memory, and 4.8TB/s of memory bandwidth.
U.S. approves the shipment of 70,000 Nvidia next-gen Blackwell AI chips to Saudia Arabia and the UAE
This past April, the Trump administration banned sales of the Nvidia H20 to China but reversed its position just a few short weeks later. The administration also announced this past week that it approved the export of up to 70,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips to Saudi Arabia's Humain and G42 of the United Arab Emirates. The Blackwell chips are Nvidia's next generation of AI accelerators.
Will the U.S. allow Nvidia to ship H200 AI accelerator to China.
Yes. Otherwise, Huawei starts building up its share.
0%
No. The plan is to keep cutting-edge chips from Huawei.
100%
While President Donald Trump has talked about tightening up on the export of U.S. tech to China, following a recent bilateral agreement between the U.S. and China, the Commerce Department will supposedly make changes to the U.S. chip export control policy. As part of the bilateral trade agreement, the U.S. agreed to lower to 48% its average tariff rate of Chinese imports to the U.S.
One estimate says Huawei's Ascend AI accelerators own a 79% market share in China
Nvidia executives say that export limits prevent the company from offering a competitive data center product in China. This has opened up China to Nvidia rivals from other countries that don't have limits on tech exports to China. And as we already pointed out, without Nvidia's most powerful AI chips battling for market share in China, Huawei is able to sell its Ascend 910C AI accelerator, used to train AI models, in its own country. One bit of analysis claims that Huawei's Ascend AI Accelerators have a vast 79% market share in the domestic AI accelerator market.
Still the most valuable U.S. publicly traded company with a value of $4.35 trillion, Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster said in a video posted on social media that the U.S. policy change on Nvidia's Chinese exports could turn Nvidia's expected 49% revenue growth in China this year to a 72% hike. Munster says that even if Nvidia's access to China is restricted by the U.S., growth in revenue from China this year could be in the 60% range. If H200 exports resume, that figure could jump to 75%.
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Alan, an ardent smartphone enthusiast and a veteran writer at PhoneArena since 2009, has witnessed and chronicled the transformative years of mobile technology. Owning iconic phones from the original iPhone to the iPhone 15 Pro Max, he has seen smartphones evolve into a global phenomenon. Beyond smartphones, Alan has covered the emergence of tablets, smartwatches, and smart speakers.
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