Analyst sees Apple cutting iPhone production by 4 million units in fiscal Q2

According to Seeking Alpha, Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang recently sent a note to clients with his prediction that Apple could cut iPhone production by four million units during its fiscal second quarter, which ends in March. The analyst based his forecast on weaker sales in China, but probably not for the reasons that you're thinking of. It actually has nothing to do with the ruling made earlier by a court in China that found Apple liable for infringing on two Qualcomm patents. The court imposed preliminary import and sales bans on iPhone models ranging from the iPhone 6s to the iPhone X; Apple is continuing to sell these models in the country with an updated operating system.

The analyst says that weakness in Chinese iPhone sales will come from companies in the country that support Huawei. After the recent arrest of Huawei's CFO for allegedly using the global banking system to make illegal sales to Iran, a Huawei supplier named Menpad said that it will fine employees who purchase an iPhone. It will also subsidize employees who purchase phones made by Chinese companies including Huawei. Other companies in China are apparently doing the same thing.

While we can't see how this show of nationalism in China could reduce iPhone sales by 4 million units, the analyst sees Apple cutting iPhone XR production by 2.5 million handsets, iPhone XS production by 1 million phones, and production of the iPhone XS Max by 500,000 units from January through March.