Following a year of modest growth projected by most major research firms and industry pundits, the global smartphone market is expected to contract in 2026 due primarily to rising memory costs. This is likely to cause significant issues for top dogs Apple and Samsung, but also for smaller players like Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and Honor, which were previously predicted to either boost their shipment figures or keep them relatively flat next year compared to 2025.
So who will the market's biggest loser be?
That's obviously too soon to tell, and even if we assume the latest Counterpoint Research estimates for the entire year of 2026 will prove 100 percent accurate (which they won't), that's a far too complex question to answer in one word or with one or two names.
Everything is most definitely not awesome for the global smartphone market.
Right now, Apple and Samsung definitely can't be happy to see their numbers projected to decline by 2.2 and 2.1 percent respectively year-on-year, but in a way, Vivo's 1.2 percent drop in smartphone sales would be even more painful. That's because the Chinese brand was actually expected to improve its global volumes just last month, and the same was true for compatriot and sister brand Oppo, which is now looking at an identical 1.2 percent decline.
If we continue to analyze the report like that, Xiaomi is in a (slightly) better position than its domestic rivals, having already been forecasted for a tiny drop in shipments... that's now expected to be significantly larger, at 1.8 percent. Still, the company should find some solace in its ability to fend off Vivo and Oppo and cling to the last spot on the smartphone vendor podium in 2026.
Those are some pretty big differences across the board between the latest 2026 forecast and the one from just last month.
The same can most definitely not be said about Honor, which was also previously looking at a small decline next year, but is now headed for a very concerning 3.4 percent drop in volumes compared to this year. The "others" category is unlikely to have a much better 2026, combining for a 26 percent market share while slipping by 2.5 percent in sales and contributing to an overall industry decline of around 2 percent.
Basically, you can say that everyone is likely to be a big loser, although Apple and Samsung are said to be "best positioned to weather the next few quarters."
Are you ready to pay more for your next phone?
Unfortunately, with bill of materials expected to jump by anywhere from 10 to 25 percent, most smartphone manufacturers are likely to pass some of those added expenses to consumers by jacking up their device prices.
Fortunately, steep price increases will not be sustainable in "the lower price bands", so most budget-friendly handsets could retain their affordability. But because companies can't afford to see their profit margins obliterated all of a sudden, there's a very good chance low to mid-end phones will no longer get the kind of upgrades you've come to expect.
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Will you buy a new phone in 2026?
Probably
44.44%
Yes, but only at the right price
11.11%
Probably not
22.22%
Definitely not
22.22%
That might explain, for instance, why Motorola's new Moto G Power (2026) is so incredibly similar to its predecessor. Another measure many brands are likely to adopt in 2026 is a portfolio "restructuring" or "rebalancing" in such a way that some models will be eliminated to keep production costs to a minimum.
That all sounds pretty bleak for everyday users, so if you're thinking of buying a new phone in the relatively near future, I strongly advise you to do so while many popular devices are still deeply discounted for Christmas.
Could this new forecast be wrong?
That's obviously not for me to say, but I highly doubt it. Clearly, no one can anticipate the exact numbers Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, and Honor will close 2026 with an entire year in advance, but the general industry trends are often fairly easy to "see" ahead of time.
So, yes, the smartphone market is very likely to contract next year, but I think that Apple and Samsung (more than anyone else) can find ways to keep their declines in check. I'm looking primarily at that first foldable iPhone (which should come out sooner rather than later to help keep Apple's overall sales numbers relatively steady), as well as the Galaxy S26 family, which absolutely needs to keep the price points of this year's Galaxy S25 trio unchanged.
That's not going to be enough to prevent the entire industry from shrinking, of course, but it could make the overall numbers look a little less depressing.
Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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