Apple is about to bank on what will likely be its most successful year and single-handedly move the global smartphone market growth beyond earlier forecasts. However, things don’t look all that good for 2026, but there’s a good reason for that.
The iPhone 17 is selling like hotcakes, breaking records for Apple
Apple is set to ship a record-breaking 247.4 million total iPhones in 2025, according to a new IDC report. That would help the company reach a 6.1% increase in shipments year-over-year.
In fact, iPhone sales are so good that IDC had to change its overall smartphone market growth forecast. Instead of the earlier forecast for 1% growth, IDC now expects 1.5% growth to 1.25 billion units. That’s mainly due to the great performance of the iPhone 17 in the holiday quarter, including in the Chinese market.
In China, Apple’s largest market, massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance. It ranked first in October and November per IDC’s China Monthly Sales data with more than 20% share, miles ahead of the competition, leading IDC to revise Apple’s Q4 forecast in China from 9% to 17% YoY.
Nabila Popal, senior research director, IDC, December 2025
Apple has turned market trends around across regions, including the US and Western Europe. The company was forecasted to record a 1% decline in China for 2025, but now it’s expected to have a 3% growth.
A different market in 2026
The expected annual smartphone market growth rate by OS. | Image credit – IDC
Apple plans to change the iPhone release schedule with the upcoming iPhone 18 series. The iPhone Fold and the iPhone 18 Pro models are expected to launch in September 2026, but the vanilla iPhone 18 may be delayed until the spring of 2027.
Do you think Apple’s 2025 success is deserved?
Yes, the iPhone 17 models are great
75%
No, there are much better phones out there
0%
Maybe, but it’s not only because of the devices
25%
Because of that decision, IDC predicts a 4.2% drop in iOS shipments in 2026. Along with the global memory shortage, which is likely to lead to supply constraints and price increases, overall smartphone shipments are also expected to drop 0.9% in 2026. Later, in 2027, the overall market and Apple’s shipments are expected to return to growth.
Well done, Apple
I’m not surprised that Apple is selling more phones than anyone expected before the launch of the iPhone 17. What’s shocking is the impact one company with only a few models can have on the overall market. Moving the whole industry up and down by changing your release schedule speaks of undeniable domination.
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Ilia, a tech journalist at PhoneArena, has been covering the mobile industry since 2011, with experience at outlets like Forbes Bulgaria. Passionate about smartphones, tablets, and consumer tech, he blends deep industry knowledge with a personal fascination that began with his first Nokia and Sony Ericsson devices. Originally from Bulgaria and now based in Lima, Peru, Ilia balances his tech obsessions with walking his dog, training at the gym, and slowly mastering Spanish.
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