The iPhone Duo starts the foldable takeover, and an Apple insider admits it will cost you

Every rival is priced the same way, which is the part that should give you pause.

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iPhone Duo opened
Apple's first foldable is the product Gurman thinks resets the category. | Image by Apple
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Foldable phones only account for about 2 percent of global smartphone shipments today, and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman believes the iPhone Duo is the product that changes that. In his September 13 Power On newsletter, he predicted that foldables will make up the majority of new phone sales within a decade.

Gurman's case rests on what the original iPhone did


This is Gurman's read of the market rather than anything sourced from inside Apple, and he frames the Duo as doing for foldables what the 2007 iPhone did for smartphones.

Just before the iPhone arrived, smartphones were only about 6 percent of global mobile phone shipments. Six years after launch they were the majority of phones sold worldwide, and today they account for roughly 85 percent of handsets sold globally, which is the curve he expects foldables to start climbing now that Apple is in the category.

When do you see yourself buying a foldable?
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The price tag is what slows the whole thing down


Gurman is upfront that this shift will take longer than the smartphone one, and the reason is simple. At $1,999 and up, the Duo costs more than two standard iPhones combined, and Apple is charging more in some overseas markets to keep the US starting price below $2,000.

That is a category problem more than an Apple one. The Galaxy Z Fold 8 and the Pixel 11 Pro Fold both start at $1,899 and the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra opens at $2,099.99, so the Duo arrives right in the middle of a price band that has barely shifted across seven years of Android foldables.

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Samsung's wider Fold 8, the model built as its answer to the Duo, sits alongside it on price as well, so nobody in this category is competing on cost at the moment. Whichever one you buy, you are paying well past flagship money for the folding screen, and that is the wall Gurman's decade has to get through.

He does expect that to ease, of course, with the Apple Upgrade leasing program going international and Apple putting the monthly rate in its marketing instead of the full price.



Our own forecasts are a lot more cautious


I went back through the foldable projections we have covered this year, and none of them are close to this bullish. Analysts have had the category sitting under 3 percent of global smartphone sales in 2026, and a more recent forecast keeps it under that same mark four years from now.

Still, I think Gurman is directionally right, since those models describe the market as it exists today and his whole argument is that the Duo resets it.

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What has to happen for him to be right


Foldables only become the default once that price gap closes, and I am not expecting it inside three or four years.

But 10 years is a long time, and I would be glad to get there and find myself buying a foldable for what a regular flagship costs today.

More on Apple's foldable and where the market goes next:
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