The latest iPhone Duo sales forecast is pretty strong, but the iPhone 18 Pro duo could disappoint
While Apple's first foldable device is expected to very quickly catch on, the latest non-foldable iPhones are unlikely to come close to their predecessors' sales results.
While the official iPhone Duo name reveal probably came as a big surprise for the vast majority of Apple fans after months and months of rumors calling for iPhone Ultra branding, the foldable's availability announcement was largely in line with everyone's expectations.
This will naturally make it hard for Apple's first-ever foldable device to impact the Samsung-dominated market segment to a very large degree by the end of 2026, although most major analytics companies are still quite optimistic about the iPhone Duo's initial sales figures... and rather pessimistic about the iPhone 18 Pro duo's prospects this year.
6 million units is a pretty big number
If you like to follow the annual smartphone market reports published by Counterpoint Research or Omdia, you probably know around 1.25 billion units were shipped worldwide in 2025. But while 6 million (with an "m") is clearly little more than a drop in that ocean, the figure would undeniably represent an excellent start for a first-gen device in a market division that only generated a total of around 20 million unit sales last year.
The iPhone Duo is certainly pretty and sophisticated enough to keep millions of buyers patiently waiting for its October 23 release. | Image by Apple
The iPhone Duo, mind you, is expected by Smart Analytics Global (SAG) to sell in 6 million copies between October 23 and the end of 2026 alone before jumping to a... significantly higher tally in 2027. That should allow Apple to edge out Huawei for the silver medal position in this year's foldable vendor chart with around 25 percent share and then leap to first place next year with a dominant 41 percent slice of the global pie.
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While these new SAG predictions are fairly similar to what Counterpoint Research anticipated ahead of the iPhone Duo's official announcement, today's novelty comes from the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max. Because the two new non-foldable handsets aren't viewed as significantly better than their predecessors, their sales results through the end of 2026 could fall well below the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max's combined total from the last few months of 2025.
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Specifically, Apple might be looking at a double-digit volume decline... that makes the company's decision to wait until next spring for a "vanilla" iPhone 18 release feel even riskier and potentially damaging for its year-ending bottom line.
The Apple Watch forecast is good but not great
If it seems like there's not much excitement around the largely repetitive Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, you're probably not wrong... although the two new wearables are also likely not disappointing enough to lead to an overall sales decline for their manufacturer's smartwatch family.
The Apple Watch Series 12 is probably great, but it's by no means a revolutionary product. | Image by Apple
Instead, global Apple Watch shipments are predicted to go up by 2 percent in Q3 2026 compared to last year's third quarter and 2 percent for the entire year compared to 2025. That's obviously not very impressive, but Apple's projected 48 percent share of the "true" smartwatch market at the end of this year is certainly astounding, jumping from an already remarkable 45 percent last year.
The AirPods 5 should become a massive instant hit
How massive? Believe it or not, Apple's latest "regular" earbuds are expected to account for an incredible 46 percent of the company's overall AirPods shipments in H2 2026 despite obviously not being available for the entirety of the year's second half.
The AirPods 5 are expected to sell like hotcakes immediately after their commercial debut. | Image by Apple
With the help of the surprisingly affordable, remarkably powerful, and decidedly sophisticated AirPods 5, Apple is likely to boost its total own-brand wireless earbuds sales by 8 percent year-over-year in both Q3 and Q4 2026, which would be a pretty amazing result in an increasingly mature and always extremely competitive market.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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