But the skepticism surrounding the early success of Apple's rookie foldable effort may have reached a higher-than-ever level with the first long-term market prediction released by a major research company in quite some time that lacks any (direct) reference to the Cupertino-based tech giant whatsoever.
Does this mean Apple will not become the world's number one foldable vendor by 2028?
I definitely wouldn't go so far as to expect that... just yet, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Samsung manages to retain its market supremacy both at the end of 2026 and 2027. Clearly, the (non-Ultra) Galaxy Z Fold 8 has gotten off to a flying start around the world, consolidating the new "wide-format design" as the key growth driver of the foldable landscape following the success of Huawei's pioneering Pura X Max device.
The first-gen iPhone Ultra may not prove quite as successful as originally anticipated. | Image by fpt on YouTube
With "similar products" expected from other "leading vendors" in the "coming months", Omdia analysts are just about certain now that the market will expand by a significantly larger rate this year than in 2025. Last year's 6 percent sales surge from 2024, mind you, was apparently the lowest growth rate recorded in "recent years", so it's definitely good news that the number is likely to jump to 22 percent in 2026.
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Do you plan on buying a new foldable soon?
But while Apple is obviously one of those "other vendors" planning a "wide-format" foldable launch by the end of this year, the iPhone Ultra may not be able to move the needle as much as the Z Fold 8 is evidently doing. Things could well change in 2027 or 2028, but the fact that Omdia avoids to make a prediction of the foldable vendor hierarchy for the coming years suggests (at least to me) that Apple's looming market dominance is no longer guaranteed.
What did previous forecasts say?
I'm not going to go all the way back to 2023 (just yet) because it was only last month that Counterpoint Research predicted 25 percent of all foldables shipped worldwide in 2026 would be iPhones. That wasn't expected to be enough to put Apple above Samsung in the global vendor chart, but it would have been close.
The Galaxy Z Fold 8 might be too good for the iPhone Ultra to vanquish right away. | Image by PhoneArena
Of course, anything is still possible, but if Omdia's 22 million unit shipment prediction for the foldable market this year holds up, I don't see how Apple could ever grab a quarter of that number after all the recent gossip around the iPhone Ultra. That's 5.5 million units that the company would need to ship to the handset's earliest adopters in the space of just a couple of months while battling all sorts of production difficulties, which seems unlikely (to say the least).
Interestingly, Omdia's 22 percent growth prediction for foldable sales in 2026 is extremely close to Counterpoint Research's 21 percent forecast last month, and if the iPhone Ultra is in trouble, that means some other device could prove significantly more popular than initially anticipated. And something tells me that other device can only be the "wide-format" Galaxy Z Fold 8.
The market's long-term doubling is actually not as impressive as it sounds
Yes, 2028's global foldable sales figures are expected to be 100 percent higher than 2025's worldwide total. But that still only means around 36 million foldable devices will be shipped around the world two years from now, and after even humbler 2029 and 2030 growth, the number is likely to rise to 45 million units four years from now, accounting for less than 3 percent of overall smartphone sales.
In other words, foldables are likely to remain a niche product for the foreseeable future, despite all of Samsung, Apple, or Huawei's efforts to popularize and extend the category's mass appeal.
Global foldable sales are expected to grow at a relatively steady but overall unimpressive pace. | Image by Omdia
And that actually brings me to a market prediction from 2023, which looks absolutely hilarious now. The expectation back then was that foldable sales would exceed 78 million (!) units in 2026 and surge over the 100 million (!!!) mark in 2027, which clearly hasn't panned out.
Now, I'm not necessarily saying that these latest forecasts for 2028 or 2030 will prove just as inaccurate, but you certainly have to take all those long-term numbers with caution and not put a lot of stock in them. What you can trust, for instance, is the downfall of flip-type foldables, which have declined by no less than 47 percent in H1 2026 compared to the same period of last year and are unlikely to ever recover, instead looking destined to be buried altogether in the near future.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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