Apple market share to hit a plateau in 2013, remain flat in next 5 years

Apple market share to hit a plateau in 2013, remain flat in next 5 years
We have an instant negative reaction whenever we hear a 5-year forecast as the mobile industry is simply too hard to predict, let alone for such a long period of time. Some keep on trying, though, and this time it is ABI Research who join the bearish Apple sentiment and say the company’s market share will hit a plateau in 2013 and remain flat in the forecoming 5 years.

Apple’s market share will allegedly rise to 22% this year and all the way until 2018 it will remain relatively flat.

Could this happen in real life? Of course, but if we take a look at the dynamics in these past years the chances don’t look very high.

First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform. Samsung on the other hand is the opposite, a success story built on Nokia’s collapse with its share going from 8% to over 30% last year.

While we remain unconvinced about Apple’s future, it’s hard to overlook all the negative reports from close-to-Apple sources like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters. Devices like the iPad are selling less, and the iPhone is struggling against Android pretty much everywhere except for the States. What are your expectations and thoughts on Apple’s future?

source: eWeek

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23 Comments

1. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

Calm down people, calm down...it's just a plateau, it's not running downhill. Oh wait, there always is downhill direction at the end of every plateau...:D

2. darkkjedii

Posts: 31346; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Ur on a roll today

4. Nathan_ingx

Posts: 4769; Member since: Mar 07, 2012

How's that? Don't be offended Apple people...i'm just making fun of the headline. I don't trusts analysts, although i'm very tempted to, on this particular subject. :D Anything could happen...nothing will ever be on a level for that long, it'll either go down or go up...

9. zuckerboy

Posts: 898; Member since: Dec 22, 2011

yes every company will face downgrade like nokia ;)

3. speckledapple

Posts: 902; Member since: Sep 29, 2011

Nothing lasts forever with any company. Not Google, Not Apple, and Not Microsoft. That said, Apple has encountered some serious competition in Android that has seen it erode its marketshare and has even started to push forth in its profits. It brings up the question of whether or not Apple will be able to maintain its current strategy for its products or alter to better handle its competition. The curreny environment is very familar to what happened with Apple and Microsoft in the pc market. Apple is one heck of a strong company with revenue and innovation to continue to be strong. The question is whether the push from competitiors like Android and now Windows Phone and BB10 will continue to erode that strength. The next five years will be very interesting on the software and hardware front. Great time to be a consumer.

19. HDShatter

Posts: 1021; Member since: Jan 17, 2013

Apple stock will crash, Google will then be the #1 company.

21. JeffdaBeat unregistered

But see, you have to follow that up with one day Google's stock will crash and someone else will be number one. I have to agree with the article though. In something that changes as rapidly as mobile tech, you can't predict the next five years. Before the iPhone, no one knew Apple would trigger a downfall of RIM and Nokia. You would have been laughed at. Surprise, surprise. Five years ago, no one knew Apple wouldn't dominate the smart phone realm. If anyone mentioned Google's Android taking over, you would have been laughed at. Surprise, surprise. And here we are today with Samsung and Apple going head to head. We don't know what these companies have up their sleeves or what public perception will be. Big things can hurt a company (Apple Maps) or could do nothing at all. We just don't know and it's never a safe bet to say a company is going to plateau for the next five years. Apple may very well come up with something that pushes them beyond anything anyone has seen. Or it could be HTC...or Motorola. That's why this s**t is so exciting...because you can't predict it.

5. Lifengineer

Posts: 44; Member since: Dec 15, 2011

I really laugh hard hard when I read such articles! These are really ridiculous!!! I mean who even knows what happens "tomorrow"?! A big event, accident etc.. can take place in the next few days and change the whole world or the whole world of technology!!! What came to my mind was nokia!!! Who even anticipated such downward spiral for nokia before iphone and android announcement?!? It was the king of cell phones! The same thing can happen (and I'm sure will) with Apple or Google or Microsoft or any other company/individual in the world!!! SO KNOCK IT OFF PEOPLE! NOBODY KNOWS IN 5min WHAT COULD HAPPEN!!!

6. mercorp

Posts: 1045; Member since: Jan 28, 2012

Serves them right.

7. fanboy1974

Posts: 1345; Member since: Nov 12, 2011

Apple needs to totally revamp the OS to accept various screen sizes and resolutions. And get away from this one size fits all model. Basically copy Android.

8. ilia1986 unregistered

10. andro.

Posts: 1999; Member since: Sep 16, 2011

Ive said it for a while,we only a had a bit of an iphone 5 rush for the first 2 deliveries a week after launch,then the ifan salvating ended. The iphone 5 now never sells out and is being outsold by the s3 3:1 and by android in general probably 10:1. People have realised the exact same phone is being released time after time year after year,but with prices increasing

11. freebee269

Posts: 542; Member since: Aug 10, 2012

"First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform." in june 2011 nokia share was at $1.68 per. right now it is at $4.45 per. where's that catastrophical fall? congrats on false info.

12. phonemirer

Posts: 111; Member since: Dec 07, 2012

yea, lumia 920 is saving them, i hope they release 922 w the flagship 2013 specs, it will trounce everything again :)

14. Luuthian

Posts: 332; Member since: Sep 09, 2011

Actually the Lumia line barely did anything for them if you read the sales data. Apparently their feature phones in Europe are what made their sales jump a bit higher than expected this year. Windows Phone has basically given them little to no favor. It's no wonder there's a small rumor they're looking into adapting Android.

13. Aeires unregistered

I think it was more about how they were the top OEM but lost that spot. They will turn it around though, too much quality for them to close doors.

16. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

According to stock market sites, quotes....it was at or around $6.66 in early June 2011.. Feb 2011 Nokia was at $10, around the time it was announced they joined up with MS. It was fallen since and has not gotten close to $10 yet. And has been on a steady decline until recently.... Maybe you meant June or July...2012....it was around $1.68 then. Its just now starting to go back up. From $10 to $1 = fell catastrophically...Nokia first WP wasnt in 2012...it was in 2011. False info? How about researching and proofreading first...

15. Droiddoes unregistered

Sounds legit, I mean their "innovative" novelties hit a platue a couple years ago.

17. jroc74

Posts: 6023; Member since: Dec 30, 2010

"First, Nokia - who everyone thought would be much stronger - fell catastrophically after adopting Windows Phone as its main platform. Samsung on the other hand is the opposite, a success story built on Nokia’s collapse with its share going from 8% to over 30% last year." This might be more interesting.....I did not know this.

18. jsdechavez

Posts: 810; Member since: Jul 20, 2012

This is calm down investors. But will find out soon..of its inevitable downfall.. It will take some time though.

20. HDShatter

Posts: 1021; Member since: Jan 17, 2013

Iphone 5s and ipad 5 only change will be an a6 that runs 1.5ghz instead of 1.3ghz, a better camera and nfc. These devices will cause it to crash even more.

22. amirata_xman

Posts: 33; Member since: Jan 05, 2013

Serves them right.

23. amirata_xman

Posts: 33; Member since: Jan 05, 2013

Serves them right.

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