Telcos to sell fewer phones because of the RAM crisis – and billions of users won't taste 5G in 2026

By now, you've surely heard of the RAM crisis and the overall picture isn't too optimistic: data centers and AI projects are inhaling memory chips, which could soon lead to price hikes on smartphones and tablets.

It's not just phone makers that are in trouble: telecom operators also face poorer device sales… which leads to a slow 5G adoption across the world.

4G still dominates

We're talking about 6G nowadays, or 5G-Advanced at least (that's the step between 5G and 6G connectivity), but the truth is that billions of users are nowhere near 5G yet. 4G remains king in terms of sheer user numbers.

Some people don't shop online, and they just go to their telco's brick and mortar for a new phone. If the representatives there have a bit of luck, they can sell a 5G phone (it doesn't have to be a flagship). The current reality is that higher memory prices translate directly into more expensive devices.

That pressure is already showing up in shipment forecasts, a report by Light Reading reads. Industry analysts have recently projected a 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026, warning that memory prices could rise another 40% through the second quarter of 2026. As a result, bills of materials are expected to climb between 8% and more than 15% above already elevated levels.

The impact is uneven across the market. While leading vendors such as Apple and Samsung are expected to see shipment declines of just over 2%, lower-end Chinese OEMs are facing steeper cost increases.

The telcos' road obstacles

For telcos like T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T, rising device prices are an indirect risk, but a meaningful one nonetheless.

Hardware sales have always been a bit of a rollercoaster, rising and falling with new launches and marketing pushes, but they still matter. Even for big operators like AT&T, devices bring in about 6% of total revenue. For smaller telcos, the stakes are much higher. Hong Kong's SmarTone, for instance, made nearly 29% of its revenue from selling devices last year.

Hence, slower demand for new phones could also put the brakes on 5G adoption. While 5G has not lived up to the early hype and has lately taken a back seat to the industry's AI obsession, there is still plenty of room to grow. The latest Ericsson Mobility Report indicates that 5G makes up around 2.9 billion of the world's 7.4 billion smartphone subscriptions, meaning a huge number of users have yet to make the jump.

Everything's connected

Phone sales and 5G upgrades may no longer be the main growth engines, but they still help keep the numbers in check for telcos. For both operators and device makers, pricier phones are shaping up to be a slow but steady drag over the year ahead. And you know what happens when telcos don't draw enough revenue in.