T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon reject Starlink's MVNO, but the Starlink MVNO may be closing in

Neither MVNOs or Starlink are new phenomena – Americans have heard about them. But what about a Starlink MVNO?

All three major telcos in the US – T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T – have directly or indirectly said they're opposed to the Starlink MVNO idea.

But then I look out my window and I see ten buildings they said they were never going to build, so I guess completely trusting big business is not the best idea ever.

What the future holds

AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are MNOs (Mobile Network Operators). They own and operate their own mobile network infrastructure, including towers and spectrum licenses. In contrast, an MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) doesn't own the network itself and instead leases access from an MNO to sell mobile service under its brand. So to speak, MVNOs rent what MNOs have built from scratch.

As we reported, T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T recently announced an unconventional partnership. Their joint venture is all about ending dead zones (areas where no traditional phone network is available) with the help of satellites.

Of the three telcos, T-Mobile's T-Satellite project (a collaboration with SpaceX) is the most popular right now.

But if they're willing to unite with Verizon and AT&T, this means all telcos are feeling the heat from Starlink's eventual domination.

Prospects and eventualities

Fierce Network has just led a webinar titled "Direct-to-Cell Disruption: Analyzing the Starlink Mobile MVNO Opportunity". In it, analysts spoke about Starlink Mobile's prospects for striking an MVNO deal, even though the Big 3 currently say they are not interested.

Starlink is building up spectrum assets and could use them in negotiations to push carriers into offering better wholesale pricing in exchange for access. Analysts think that as Starlink's ambitions grow, the traditional carriers may eventually have to compromise, especially if a fourth major network starts to look realistic.

If that direct path fails, Starlink still has alternatives like buying an existing MVNO or working through intermediaries that resell network access.

20 million US subs

Some forecasts go further, suggesting Starlink Mobile could reach around 20 million US subscribers within about five years if it successfully scales beyond niche use cases like emergency connectivity. Instead, it would likely aim for full mobile service nationwide… and eventually globally.

So once Starlink becomes a credible competitive threat, I think the Big 3 will sing to a different tune. At that point, one carrier may decide it is better to earn wholesale revenue than risk being bypassed entirely.

Which will it be?

According to Besen Group, AT&T could be the one to strike an MVNO deal with Starlink. But, in the same breath, analysts say that they won't be surprised if T-Mobile is the one that acts faster.

In contrast, other experts say that Verizon is the most likely candidate.

Whatever happens, the Starlink MVNO now seems to be in the cards. It's too early to predict what this would mean for you and me as end users, but I expect a fierce competition. Prices for satellite-backed connectivity services could go down, but keep in mind that this is a new technology, so please don't expect to get satellite connectivity for $1–$2 on top of your current bill.

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