Windows Phone to outgrow iOS by 2016?
You didn't see that coming, did you? Ovum's principal analyst Adam Leach came out with a bold forecast about the future of mobile platforms saying that Windows Phone will outgrow Apple's iOS in terms of market share by the year 2016. Microsoft's platform is to have a 22.6% share, higher than the 19% projected for iOS. Android is to be the leader in that yet uncertaing postapocalyptic future with a market share of 38.7%.
"We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms, with Android storming into the lead with 38.7% market share, compared to Apple iOS’ 19%, by 2016 in AP alone," Leach noted. As uncertain as it all sounds now, the forecast takes into account Nokia's adoption of Windows Phone and all of its reverberations:
"For Microsoft the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone," Leach suggested. In any case, long-term predictions in the rapidly growing industry are risky business as RIM and HP have yet to strike back with new devices and updated versions of their operating systems, but what do you think, do you see a “three-horse race” in the future?
source: Ovum via WMPowerUser
25. BobbyTaba (Posts: 316; Member since: 11 Aug 2010)
yea and ill be able to shit gold in 2016 too
2. bluechrism (unregistered)
World wide or US market share?
28. Lucas777 (Posts: 2121; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)
it would have to be worldwide cause this wud be nokias work...
3. Tre-Nitty (Posts: 458; Member since: 16 Nov 2010)
This is the dumbest prediction ever. Not cause of what he said but because he is predicting something for 2016.
26. CRICKETownz (Posts: 980; Member since: 24 Oct 2009)
No kiddin...that's like saying "yea Microsoft to will overtake all OS's in 2035".
4. for lulz (unregistered)
MAC FANBOY RAGE!!!
5. remixfa (Posts: 13901; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
analists predict things all the time. he is going off current sales, future deals, apps in the store (which MS got to 10k before apple n android both).. that kind of stuff.
that said, they are normally wrong. :)
i assume MS would take 3rd place.. i always have. it would be interesting to see what happens though if MS overtakes the iphone. hey, maybe the iphone will finally upgrade its OS and allow things like widgets n live backgrounds.. lol
6. Tre-Nitty (Posts: 458; Member since: 16 Nov 2010)
I believe its time for ios to update its os. Do I think m$ will overtake, uh no.
7. snowgator (Posts: 3149; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
4 years in the future? That is where he is going? Does he work out of a tent, wear a cape, and flip over fancy cards on top of sales figures while chanting? What if Samsung and Bada come out of nowhere and becomes a huge player overseas (or home for some of the Phone Arena bloggers) and erodes Nokia's sales? What if RIM partners with someone to improve their market share? What if HP hits the ground running and stuns everyone in the next three years with devices nobody has seen yet? What if Apple, who is not a dumb organization, goes on the attack with the updated OS and it's best-in-show promotions? Let's just get WP7 in some Nokia devices and see if we can get it into the double digit sales first, shall we?
Won't I feel stupid in 2016 if he is right......
8. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
I wonder what this guy said in 2006 about the growth of Android?
9. nak1017 (Posts: 328; Member since: 08 Jan 2010)
As far fetched as this sounds, Jobs lost the lead in the computer market by running Apple the same way he's running it now. If MS can get a good foothold, or say, port windows 8 to phones and eliminate the idea of a mobile OS all together, then this isn't too far off...
10. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
The problem with the Mac-MS analogy is that there have been only two commercial players in the PC market the last 15 years. I think a better analogy between today's mobile landscape and the PC landscape of the 90s would be the following:
iPhone = Apple/Mac
Blackberry = Commodore/Amiga
Android = MS/PC
It may be too early to say where Windows fits in the above picture.
13. protozeloz (Posts: 5284; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
think MS had its chase to shine and kinda had it ruined... but 2016? is he getting paid to say that? I i think by 2016 something may change the way smartphones work and may not even have the same competition
14. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
True. If someone had shown me a Droid X in 2006, I would have said it looked like a calculator and asked how you keep your face from pushing buttons on the screen. And if someone said we'd have phones with 1 Ghz dual core processors for $200... you get the idea. Nobody can accurately predict where this developing industry will be in 5 years.
17. nak1017 (Posts: 328; Member since: 08 Jan 2010)
Ok, I still stick by my analogy
I'm not focusing on Apple's competitors, I'm focusing on Apple's historical business strategy of requiring everything to go through them. It's a great strategy unless there's a comparable, cheaper alternative...
20. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
But there have been plenty of comparable, cheaper alternatives for the last 18 months, most of them Android-powered. The iMac, iPod and iPhone changed things for Apple and gave them a brand cachet and loyal following companies like MS and HP could only dream about. They don't need to be the cheapest or the best anymore (although they like to believe they're the best!)
But Windows? I'm sorry, but even if it were the best-designed platform, it has a serious lack of desirability. I grew up in the 90s, and to me MS will always be the evil empire that destroyed Netscape and gave us bloated OSes.
23. kit (unregistered)
iPhone = Apple/Mac
Blackberry = Commodore/Amiga
Android = ibm
windows = MS/PC
Samething all over again
apple and there cute all in one, comm/ amiga and there coolness. Ibm domination/ but no foresight, (Ibm created internet but didn't capitalize on it)
Microsoft won by compatibility, and partner ships, and availability
and that colored graph, is missing one point, higher than all them, apple/adroid/wp/etc Nokia is the highest current . If thier users converted and (they may do that) then ms would be the top one right now, barring growth of other platforms and including good choices from Nokia and HTC and others, not even including the windows 8 pads coming out, what hes saying is probable less ms messes it up.
29. Lucas777 (Posts: 2121; Member since: 06 Jan 2011)
i would say u r wrong... jobs hasnt gotten the best ceo award for nothin.... he turned apple around and made it the name brand it is today
11. cornerofthemoon (Posts: 466; Member since: 20 Apr 2010)
iOS is getting kind of boring. I know that Apple doesn't need to re-invent the wheel but it needs to add more interesting graphical elements besides infinite rows of chicklets.
12. Eingild (unregistered)
I gotta agree with you dude. iOS' interface has been the same since the day it was launched. From 2007, the only features that were added are facetime, multi-tasking and folders, yet no one dares to call iOS dated like others refer to symbian.
27. corps1089 (Posts: 492; Member since: 20 Jan 2010)
Thumbs all around. iOS was always boring. Stevie is just invading a new market and bleeding it as dry as he can with incremental releases and no real innovation. He's laughing all the way to the bank and cares not what the market will hold in 2016.
30. fairly_mismatched (unregistered)
Jobs doesn't like widgets, or more to the point - interesting graphical elements. He prefers simplicity. Simplicity does work well when creating a market as Apple has done with it's past few products, but the nature of things is to start off simple and gain complexity. Amoebas work very well as an animal - haven't needed to change for millenia, but in comparison to a cockroah, a rat or even a human it's a whole different ball game.
It will be interesting to see Apple's standing financially, technologically, and productionally 3-5 years after the leadership reigns have been handed over.
15. Kjayhawk (Posts: 271; Member since: 07 Oct 2010)
This other poster said it very nice. Right now its 1 vs 100 with android and it is going to be the same with microsoft. Apple can't expect to stay number one with so few choses. Its not the end of the world if the iPhone isn't number one because we all know it will still be competitive for as long as apple continues making it...
I want Web OS back... Now that would be awesome!!
16. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
WebOS is the wildcard. It's been well-reviewed and respected, but never had the hardware to back it up. The HP Pre 3 could be the device that finally proves the potential of WebOS. HP's recent announcement that they'll put WebOS in both their tablets and upcoming PCs is a bold move, and it could be brilliant or disastrous for them. What will hold the platform back is if they try to control everything like Apple does. Apple has gotten away with it because they have the marketing muscle and devoted following. We'll see what this summer brings, and it may be make-or-break time for the platform, but I wouldn't count WebOS out yet.
22. zuno gyakusatsu (Posts: 257; Member since: 16 Mar 2010)
finally, someone with a brain. thumbs up to you sir.
19. rocker-guy (Posts: 13; Member since: 24 Mar 2011)
dont worry apple... Before 2016, Dooms Day would come...
21. roldefol (Posts: 2855; Member since: 28 Jan 2011)
CUPERTINO, CA (AP) Steve Jobs shocked and confused analysts in the tech, financial, and religious sectors with his bold announcement today that the iPhone 9 will be "rapture ready".
24. som (Posts: 768; Member since: 10 Nov 2009)
Is Windows Phone 7 platform will last to 2016?