Gartner predicts Android domination, Windows Phone to top iOS in sales by 2015
Dear, Gartner, you just don't learn do you? Seven months ago, the company was drawing a rosy future for Symbian, forenaming it the top mobile OS for 2014 with some 30% share. Well, now it has decided to peek into the future of the mobile industry all the way into 2015 and here's what the analysts found: actually, Android is to dominate the market grabbing a nearly 50% portion, while at the same time Symbian's share will shrink to 0.1%. Uh oh! On the other hand, Windows Phone, adopted by Nokia for its main platform, will outscore iOS by 2.3% with a share of 19.5% in 2015, according to the latest prognosis.
The forecast – of course – is no palm-reading, but taking into account that less than two months ago, such a prediction would have seemed wildly extravagant, we would take this one with extra caution. Even more so, given Gartner's expectations for iOS, which the analysts expect to reach a peak next year and fall down to 17.2% by 2015. Gartner's numbers come close to those in a recent report by tech oracle IDC, which foretold a market share of 45% for Android and of 0.2% for Symbian in 2015. So with that in mind, why don't you bring out your own magic ball and give us your predictions in the comments below?
1. snowgator (Posts: 3294; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)
Again, "predicting" about Symbian losing market share and Windows piggy backing on Nokia to respectability isn't exactly going out on a limb here. The thought of Apple losing share is. Lots more to guess at here then I will buy into.
2. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)
I still believe that its unfair to say that Andriod OS will dominate IOS by any date, Like I've stated before...
Andriod has flooded the market with its OS (just like Windows on PC's) and IOS has only one device in each catagory. I think market share should be determined by individual devices... like the Iphone vs. any driod model, or the ipad vs. the Xoom.
5. protozeloz (Posts: 5381; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
the only problem with that comparison is that in a market where different companies adopting one same OS you will end up people fighting and flaming on devices from other manufacturers with android, for example HTC fans are not likely to support the XOOM but the flyer or other similar HTC tablet, same with Droid fans and Samsung fans. witch is a disadvantage of this spread model.... no single device will have full chance of spreading so no sales to compare there :(
11. remixfa (Posts: 14175; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
this is OS vs OS, not phone vs phone. By 2015 Apple will probably be on just about every major carrier in the world. If they dont, thats their fault. Every carrier would like to sell an iphone, even though maybe not all want to play by Apples crap rules.
And at any rate, if Google only made one phone a year, and apple only made one phone a year, the google phone would still outsell it. Google is easier to have relations with carriers with, they are open sourced, heavily customizable, and do more for the money. Look how many of the GalaxyS's Samsung has sold worldwide just by making it availible on so many carriers. And thats just one of dozens of high end android phones. So, i really dont think your thought process is valid.
23. Templer16 (Posts: 20; Member since: 09 Apr 2009)
How is it unfair to compare to all Android to all of Apple?
It's amazing how being an fanboy can make you completely stop using reasoning and logic, just so you can some how form views that are inline with your feelings.
The writing is on the wall my friend and based on the merits of Androids open OS it will over take Apple
3. protozeloz (Posts: 5381; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
I predict it will rain cats and dogs by 2025 is it possible? yes, probable? who knows....
4. iphone6 (unregistered)
davecann2. Android--open source. It can be on any maker of a phone--Samsung, Motorola, HTC, etc. Apple, chooses to keep it's system on Apple and not reach out to other providers. I'm sure if they wanted the ios on a Motorola, Samsung, etc, it would work and probably better on a HTC, vice Apple. The Apple brand is plain. They have a select group of followers- tea baggers who refuse to accept anything other than Apple. The phone hasnt changed since 2007, the user interface hasn't changed since 2007. What's impressive about that. Android is taking over, the numbers are the facts. Look at Windows PC's. It's either windows or mac, and their are a lot more windows based pcs's in the world than macs.
10. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)
I started to respect your opinion up until you called Apple fans teabaggers. You lost credibility my friend.
IOS hasnt changed because the technology to utilize hardware changes hasnt caught up yet. I like competition... I like Andriod. But whats the use of adding more chipsets and better resolution before we have 4g or LTE?
Apple makes minor improvments that have been keeping up with the current state of technology. up until about the middle of 2010 the IOS has been the envy of the mobile world.
I aggree that the IOS needs a major overhaul to remain fresh and new. But the IOS in its current state is still nice. Andriod still needs tweeking to be labled a better OS in my opinion.
16. SemperFiV12 (Posts: 868; Member since: 09 Nov 2010)
teabagger or not, hes got a point. Besides making a mistake on the concept of open source. The iPhone WAS revolutionary when it came out, and now... 4+ years later it's the same ish. News flash, sprinkling features here and there doesnt cut it, you need to continue to innovate. Thats why BlackBerry is dying. Thats why Apple is boring. Thats why Android has picked up steam. Thats why Windows is desirable currently. Thats why people are waitting for new WebOS devices.
Bottom line, people want innovation. Something to WOW us. Apple has not done that since the original iPhone, and I am unimpressed.
25. very well said SemperFiV12 (unregistered)
My thoughts put into words. WOW. Very well said sir. :)
6. Super Android Evo (unregistered)
It's OS vs. OS. It's not Android's fault that iOS is on 1 phone. Why not put the iOS on other phones then!!! Facts are facts. That is why this is happening to Apple. If Apple wants to compete they need to put the iOS on other phones.
7. jwl3429 (Posts: 36; Member since: 28 Sep 2009)
Where is WebOS in all of this, HP has big plans for WebOS i would think by 2015 there market share will be better. posted by some one who has both a WebOS and android device.
8. Motosurf (unregistered)
Symbian 0.2%... you guys sure that there will still be Symbian in 2015?
9. Proprietary Android (unregistered)
I know right now Android seems to be a runaway freight train however, there really isn't a "open platform" that is competing against it just yet. And lets us not forget that this growth is form devices that are generally upgraded every year or two--not ten years like business PCs.
iOS & BB are only on their own devices, thus they will always suffer due to lack of device choices.
Symbian is now dead.
MS has just released WP7 which is the only other major competition to be on multiple OEMs however, I think WP7 is a stop gap measure for MS. Win8, from what I've read, will be on phones, tablets, and desktops. It will be a "unifying" OS, and it will be the first real competition in an "open" manner to Android.
However, I believe Win8 will offer more "openness" to end users than Android does. Android is currently being locked down by OEMs and carriers, thus the devices it ships on are often just as locked down as any iOS device--you must VOID THE WARRANTY, just like with an Apple device, to make any really changes to the device and to put on a clean installation of stock Android. Furthermore, Android is NOT supported by Google unless you purchase the single Google device. It is only supported by OEMs and thus far they have done a crap job at supporting Android and they will not support it on devices for as long as MS supports Windows (10 years on a major release).
Thus, I think Android will ultimately be hampered by OEMs and Google's lack of control over the OS and their unwillingness to support devices directly long term, and this will allow MS inroads with Win8.
Win8 will leverage the massive software ecosystem that Windows has. If MS does a decent job implementing Win8, and they get good battery life with the OS then it will be game on and they will have a great shot at taking over the mobile space just as they did the netbook space.
Apple could do so much better if they would let go of their totalitarian ideas--just make the devices as functional as possible and stop crippling them. An iOS device is SO MUCH MORE USEFUL AFTER ITS BEEN ROOTED.
Thus, it will be Microsoft's willingness to work with OEMs while still maintaining control over the OS so that end users actually get a decent non fubared OEM-OS that is supported by a central party that will allow them to dominate if things don't change.
12. Madman25 (unregistered)
As it is stated several times already....Android will always beat out iOS and will continue to due to lack of device choices on iOS, also not to mention the customization features android phones have and the ability to load third party apps!..prediction ...iOS obsolete by 2015 android the new staple in smartphones!
13. sherjo311 (Posts: 3; Member since: 24 Jul 2009)
in order to top iOS in market share, wouldn't windows phones have to be selling first?
19. andromadness (Posts: 1; Member since: 08 Apr 2011)
The issue of the slow Windows Phone 7 sales for now shouldn't matter in the projected numbers. Like the Android devices they are available with many different manufactures. Most important, Nokia will soon be loading their new devices with the Microsoft software. With competition and range of devices, the Windows Phone 7 could very well beat out Apple iOS. There is no competition with iOS, so if you can afford (or settle for) an iPhone then you are stuck with those features only and at a premium price. Windows and Android are poised for tremendous growth.
22. downphoenix (Posts: 2416; Member since: 19 Jun 2010)
plus its safe to say Windows sales will pick up a lot by holiday season. Microsoft, unlike Google, set up minimum requirements in order to ensure the devicse the OS was put on not only could run the OS, but run it fast and efficiently. So yea, initially the prices for these handsets had to be higher, but we will see free Windows 7 devices as a regular thing by this holiday season. One of the main factors besides being the new kid on the block that hurt initial sales is the fact the phones were same price as a high end android or Ios device.
14. VZW Rep (unregistered)
Guys, guys, GUYS!
I think we're all missing the most important thing here. The most important thing is, that picture is f@#*ing EPIC.
17. SemperFiV12 (Posts: 868; Member since: 09 Nov 2010)
It is... too bad Verizon is screwing their customers lately
20. iwebdroidberry7 (Posts: 230; Member since: 17 Jan 2011)
Yeah with that $50 unlimited plans right?
15. forgetlogic (unregistered)
I think the biggest thing were all forgeting is that there prob. won't be a year 2015..the world is ending 2012 :p
18. bisyballer (unregistered)
iphone sucks ass! slow, controlled, sloppy browser, locked battery, expensive songs, totally inconvenient w/ pc's, tiny screen, way outdated!!!. Long live android, the world's # 1 OS!!!
21. downphoenix (Posts: 2416; Member since: 19 Jun 2010)
Apple fanboys crying over Androdi taking over. Its already outselling Iphone, its just a matter of time before total sales are more than Iphone's total sales.
Its because Google wants mass market penetration, they want to be the top dog on the market, regardless of the cost.
Apple is in it for profits and a controlled market, as they always have been, its their philosophy and ecosystem
24. duck duck (unregistered)
I wish this whole 'LTE' naming would end, it's a stupid marketing gimik that will end up confusing people to hell and IMO hurt carriers in the long run.
"hay guys i'm loving this 3G CDMA EVDO network!"
Just call it 3G or 4G or 5G or 6G for the love of god.