Created by by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965, the rule of thumb known as Moore's Law originally called for the number of transistors inside an integrated circuit to double every year. In 1975, the Law was revised. That year, Moore said that the number of components inside an integrated circuit would double every year until 1980. After that, the doubling would take place every other year. The improvements and innovations in the performance of mobile tech devices, including the Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy devices, depended on this Law continuing to be in force.
According to CNET
, NVIDIA co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang said today at CES that Moore's Law is dead. To be precise, the executive of the GPU maker said, "Moore's Law isn't possible anymore." Every time the number of transistors inside an IC doubled, the performance and battery life of chipsets improved. The most advanced chips currently being produced commercially by companies like Samsung and TSMC use the 7nm process.
During a Q&A session at the Las Vegas Convention Center today, Huang said that Moore's Law has dropped off from a 10X improvement every 5 years to where the improvement is currently only 2X over ten years. The expense and complexity of continually cramming more transistors into a small area makes it difficult to forecast the doubling of chip performance on a regular basis.
"Moore's Law used to grow at 10X every five years [and] 100X every 10 years. Right now Moore's Law is growing a few percent every year. Every 10 years maybe only 2X. ... So Moore's Law has finished."-Jensen Huang, co-founder, CEO, NVIDIA
Analyst Patrick Moorhead of Moor Insights & Strategy said, "Moore's Law, by the strictest definition of doubling chip densities every two years, isn't happening anymore. If we stop shrinking chips, it will be catastrophic to every tech industry." But he notes that there are other ways to improve the performance of devices that relied on Moore's Law, including new advances in software, and new ways to package chips.