iPhone Ultra might be a repeat of a past Apple fiasco
The iPhone Ultra will be hard to come by in 2026.
Only a million units are expected to be produced in Q3. | Image by @Saurav_DJ47 on X
Apple is expected to announce the iPhone Ultra on September 8, nearly eight years after the first foldable phone was announced in 2018. It could be months before the average buyer can get their hands on one, though.
Esteemed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has echoed concerns that the iPhone Ultra may be subject to delays. So while it may be unveiled alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, the conventional models will likely go on sale before the bendable device.
Kuo's industry survey suggests that only 0.5 to 1 million units will be assembled in the third quarter, for a total of 7 to 8 million units to be manufactured in 2026. In contrast, 20 to 22 million iPhone 18 Pro units will be ready by Q3 2026.
If that staggered launch sounds familiar, it's because something similar happened with the iPhone X in 2017.
Now, foldable phones have been around for a while, but this is Apple's first rodeo. And considering the Cupertino giant's exacting standards, it's no wonder that it's facing a flurry of challenges.
The last time Apple tried something different was with the iPhone X, a very innovative device for its time. Due to manufacturing bottlenecks, only a million units were assembled in the third quarter of 2017. As a result, even though it was announced alongside the iPhone 8 on September 12, 2017, it didn't go on sale until November 3, more than a month after the iPhone 8.
This indicates that the iPhone Ultra is also unlikely to go on sale before the fourth quarter.
The anticipation for a foldable iPhone has been building for years. Kuo's discussions with carriers, sales channels, and resellers all point to robust demand through the end of 2026, even at the expected price of between $2,300 and $2,500.
Consequently, the iPhone Ultra will likely sell out the second pre-orders open, stretching delivery times deep into December.
The lack of availability could see scalpers selling the device at a 50 to 100% premium.
While the iPhone X's supply normalized in November 2017, the iPhone Ultra's shipments are expected to remain constrained throughout most of H2 2026. That's why late 2026 to early 2027 is when we will get a true picture of its demand, as by then the holiday rush and launch buzz will have died down.
Per an earlier report, Apple may make 10 million iPhone Ultra units in 2026 instead of its previous target of 7-8 million units. Despite the production challenges, Apple is projected to capture 28% market share in the category in 2026, within striking distance of Samsung's leading 31% share.
2017-esque delays
Esteemed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has echoed concerns that the iPhone Ultra may be subject to delays. So while it may be unveiled alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, the conventional models will likely go on sale before the bendable device.
Kuo's industry survey suggests that only 0.5 to 1 million units will be assembled in the third quarter, for a total of 7 to 8 million units to be manufactured in 2026. In contrast, 20 to 22 million iPhone 18 Pro units will be ready by Q3 2026.
If that staggered launch sounds familiar, it's because something similar happened with the iPhone X in 2017.
A technological breakthrough
Now, foldable phones have been around for a while, but this is Apple's first rodeo. And considering the Cupertino giant's exacting standards, it's no wonder that it's facing a flurry of challenges.
The last time Apple tried something different was with the iPhone X, a very innovative device for its time. Due to manufacturing bottlenecks, only a million units were assembled in the third quarter of 2017. As a result, even though it was announced alongside the iPhone 8 on September 12, 2017, it didn't go on sale until November 3, more than a month after the iPhone 8.
This indicates that the iPhone Ultra is also unlikely to go on sale before the fourth quarter.
How do you feel about potential iPhone Ultra delays?
Feverish demand
The anticipation for a foldable iPhone has been building for years. Kuo's discussions with carriers, sales channels, and resellers all point to robust demand through the end of 2026, even at the expected price of between $2,300 and $2,500.
Consequently, the iPhone Ultra will likely sell out the second pre-orders open, stretching delivery times deep into December.
The lack of availability could see scalpers selling the device at a 50 to 100% premium.
Scarce initial supply, a highly recognizable design, and an innovative user experience should all support a short-term resale premium; resale prices 50–100% above the official price would not be out of the question.
Ming-Chi Kuo, TF International Securities analyst, July 2026
The real assessment
While the iPhone X's supply normalized in November 2017, the iPhone Ultra's shipments are expected to remain constrained throughout most of H2 2026. That's why late 2026 to early 2027 is when we will get a true picture of its demand, as by then the holiday rush and launch buzz will have died down.
Per an earlier report, Apple may make 10 million iPhone Ultra units in 2026 instead of its previous target of 7-8 million units. Despite the production challenges, Apple is projected to capture 28% market share in the category in 2026, within striking distance of Samsung's leading 31% share.
Popular stories
Latest News
Things that are NOT allowed:
To help keep our community safe and free from spam, we apply temporary limits to newly created accounts: