Because the Cupertino-based tech giant is no longer likely to become the world's top foldable vendor this year, the question is now exactly how many iPhone Ultra units will be shipped by the end of 2026 and then in 2027 and how big of an impact those numbers will have on the global market as a whole.
Counterpoint Research has a few possible answers today, and although these are undeniably positive for market segment newcomer Apple, they may actually provide even better news for the current heavyweight champion of foldable sales.
Samsung could extend its lead after all
After accounting for 40 percent of the world's total foldable smartphone shipments in 2025, Samsung is now expected to end this year with a 38 percent market share.
Samsung's top position in global foldable sales looks pretty safe... for the time being. | Image by Counterpoint Research
Technically, that would represent a decline for the industry veteran, but it's hard not to view this latest prediction as a big potential win when 2025's silver medalist is forecasted to drop from a 30 percent slice of the global pie to just 22 percent.
That means Samsung's lead over Huawei could grow from 10 to no less than 16 percentage points in market share, and if that doesn't sound impressive enough, it was less than two months ago that the champion was predicted to sit at only 32 percent at the end of 2026. That number has incredibly jumped to 38 percent since July, which clearly means the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is significantly more popular than originally anticipated.
Apple should still edge out Huawei
While Samsung and Huawei's predicted scores have changed over the last six weeks or so, Apple continues to be looking at a 25 percent share of 2026 foldable shipments, which should be enough for a relatively narrow victory over the segment's former silver medalist and future bronze holder.
Recommended For You
When do you think Apple will become the world's top foldable vendor?
2 Votes
That sounds like a terrific result for a first-gen device whose "initial supply constraints" are reportedly "unavoidable", most likely equating to a little over 6 million units in just around three and a half months of (limited) availability.
Of course, the 25 percent share is far from etched in stone, and depending on how well Apple will be able to navigate the iPhone Ultra's production challenges, exactly how costly the device will be, and well, how good it will be, that number could obviously go up to threaten Samsung's (temporary) supremacy or down to allow Huawei to cling on to its second place on the global podium.
Here are more news stories about foldable devices:
The market will finally cross 100 million unit shipments this year
Yes, that's a pretty big number for what's still characterized as a relatively small niche by most analytics firms, but it's likely to feel a lot less impressive when you consider how long foldables have been a thing now.
The original Galaxy Fold saw daylight all the way back in 2019, and while it's certainly miraculous that the catastrophic initial issues of that product were relatively quickly forgotten, it's also a little disappointing that it's taken more than seven years to get close to a 100 million global sales total.
The foldable market is still not as big as many may have anticipated years ago, but it's getting bigger. | Image by Counterpoint Research
That's right, we're talking about all foldable shipments from 2019 to 2026, mind you, rather than just this year's tally, which is expected to barely exceed 24 million units. That would still represent a solid increase over the 19.6 million units estimated to have shipped around the world in 2025 before jumping to more than 33 million in 2027.
Next year's 37 percent growth could be the market's biggest year-on-year improvement from 2022, and yes, Apple is expected to be primarily responsible for this huge progress. Technically, Apple is not explicitly predicted to become the world's number one foldable vendor in 2027, but with an expected 40 percent share, it's unlikely that the company will be eclipsed by Samsung again.
Six-month unlimited plan is now 57% off
$90
$210
$120 off (57%)
Mint Mobile is now allowing you to get whichever plan you like for either three, six, or 12 months for just $15/mo. If you go for the six-month unlimited service, for instance, you'll now have to pay just $90 upfront instead of $210.
Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
A discussion is a place, where people can voice their opinion, no matter if it
is positive, neutral or negative. However, when posting, one must stay true to the topic, and not just share some
random thoughts, which are not directly related to the matter.
Things that are NOT allowed:
Off-topic talk - you must stick to the subject of discussion
Offensive, hate speech - if you want to say something, say it politely
Spam/Advertisements - these posts are deleted
Multiple accounts - one person can have only one account
Impersonations and offensive nicknames - these accounts get banned
To help keep our community safe and free from spam, we apply temporary limits to newly created accounts:
New accounts created within the last 24 hours may experience restrictions on how frequently they can
post or comment.
These limits are in place as a precaution and will automatically lift.
Moderation is done by humans. We try to be as objective as possible and moderate with zero bias. If you think a
post should be moderated - please, report it.
Have a question about the rules or why you have been moderated/limited/banned? Please,
contact us.
Things that are NOT allowed:
To help keep our community safe and free from spam, we apply temporary limits to newly created accounts: