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Where do your favorite mobile features land on the hype cycle?

Posted: , by Michael H.

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Where do your favorite mobile features land on the hype cycle?
You all likely understand the hype cycle of technology, even if it has never officially been explained to you, because we've all followed the cycle numerous times with various products and features. The basic idea (as you can see on the chart below) is that every technology tends to go through a cycle of hyper-inflated expectations and disappointment, before finding its groove in the market. Today, Gartner released its 2014 Hype Cycle Map for emerging technologies, and we wanted to take a look at where different mobile features land on that chart.

An interesting piece of the chart is that virtual personal assistants are at the beginning of the hype cycle, but various technologies that make those personal assistants work are found farther along. For example, natural-language question answering is at the Peak of Inflated Expectations right now, while speech recognition has made it all the way to the Plateau of Productivity. 

Unsurprisingly, NFC is found almost as deep into the Trough of Disillusionment as you can get. NFC has plenty of viable uses, but the push to make it the mobile payment standard has failed, and companies have yet to try other options beyond sending files between devices. Similarly, mobile health monitoring is deep in the Trough. This may seem a bit surprising given how popular fitness trackers and health-focused wearables are right now, but it should be noted that the many fitness wearables end up abandoned pretty quickly. 

Overall, we can't argue too much with the placement of various items on the list. Gartner has done a solid job. What do you guys think?

Where do your favorite mobile features land on the hype cycle?

source: Gartner via Quartz

12 Comments
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posted on 11 Aug 2014, 22:39 10

1. gaara6775 (Posts: 280; Member since: 20 May 2014)


Above things goes above my head. What will I do with bioacoustic sensing, quantum computing, neurobusiness? Just make a phone which can last a week on a single charge with heavy usage xD

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 00:31 1

3. TylerGrunter (Posts: 905; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)


Funny comment when one of the hyped promises of quantum computers is precisely more processing power while using less power, therefore fulfilling your desire ;-)

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 01:09 1

5. 0xFFFF (Posts: 2962; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


Or just ditch your smartphone and use your brain, i.e. the quantum computer you already have.

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 05:15 1

8. reckless562 (Posts: 702; Member since: 09 Sep 2013)


hhahahahahah, HAHAAHAH yea right. its devoted to Titties and Asses!! Football, baseball stats, and driving windows down, while listening to Too short, tyga, or some Dub step !!!
......also devoted to tryna keep my job lmao!!!

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 05:11 1

7. reckless562 (Posts: 702; Member since: 09 Sep 2013)


thumbs up n i agree, but
all that other stuff u mentioned?? taking over the world is what You would Do!!!! Bwahahahahah!!!!

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 00:28 1

2. gigaraga (Posts: 885; Member since: 29 Mar 2013)


Augmented reality would be so awesome if Sony didn't make a mess of it.

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 01:10 1

6. 0xFFFF (Posts: 2962; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


Generally speaking anything done at the beginning only for money is going to suck. Augmented reality is exactly this.

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 01:09 2

4. 0xFFFF (Posts: 2962; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


Another nonsense graph from "analysts", i.e. highly paid shills.

They didn't properly graph age vs. hype. For example, connected home has been around for a long time. But where is it on the graph? Right near the beginning.

Also, it assumes all technologies follow the same curve. But that is an obvious fallacy.

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 07:54

9. MichaelHeller (Posts: 2669; Member since: 26 May 2011)


You're reading the chart wrong. How long a technology has been out has no bearing at all on this chart, because the hype cycle doesn't really start until a tech has gotten enough public attention.

The chart only gives an estimate of how long it will take for a tech to work its way through the cycle. Because of that, "time" is different for every item on the graph, and is shown in the shape symbol connected to the graph.

posted on 13 Aug 2014, 01:47

11. 0xFFFF (Posts: 2962; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


The horizontal axis is labeled "time". The symbol shapes indicate the time before one data point, i.e. "connected home" will take to get from where it is on the time access to the "plateau" part of the graph which is on the right side of the graph, on the horizontal time axis.

Basically Gartner is redefining "time" and what it means on a graph. Which is a bonehead thing to do, but typical of analysts whose primary job is deception.

The short of it is that Gartner screwed up and mislabeled the horizontal axis. It should have been "stage of development" or "cycle stage" or something like that, not "time".

And this still doesn't reflect reality. The shapes of the curves for these various technologies are not the same.

posted on 12 Aug 2014, 08:03

10. troutsy (Posts: 257; Member since: 17 Feb 2012)


The independent axis of the graph isn't time in years, it is displaying time in "stages of the development cycle".

So yes, connected homes have been around for some time, but the technology hasn't been developed or accepted from a cost or ease-of-use standpoint yet so it is placed at the beginning of the chart.

posted on 13 Aug 2014, 01:50

12. 0xFFFF (Posts: 2962; Member since: 16 Apr 2014)


"The independent axis of the graph isn't time in years, it is displaying time in "stages of the development cycle"."

It is not displaying "time" in any way. Rather the horizontal axis is indicating some discontinuous discrete variable that represents "stage of development" (as you mentioned). Basically, the horizontal axis should have been labeled better.

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