Late surge in iPhone 18 Pro lead times tell us how iPhone Duo orders will fare
Apple's plan to split up iPhone 18 Pro and non-Pro releases appears to have paid off for Apple.
What surging iPhone 18 Pro lead times tell us about demand for the foldable Duo | Image by Apple
Apple's annual iPhone unveiling was shaken up this year as the tech giant made some changes. First, the obvious. Apple, for the first time ever, had a foldable iPhone to introduce.
Apple splits the unveiling of the new iPhone models into two parts
The second change was to limit the September announcement to the two premium iPhone Pro models, the iPhone 18 Pro and the iPhone 18 Pro Max. The base iPhone 18, the lower-priced iPhone 18e, and the iPhone Air 2 are expected to be released next spring.
This is when pre-orders will begin for the iPhone Duo
Apple started accepting pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max on September 11 and the handsets were available starting yesterday. Pre-orders for the iPhone Duo will start on October 16 at 5 AM PDT/8 AM EDT and availability will begin one week later, on October 23.
Apple iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max pre-orders got off to a slow start
At first, pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max got off to an inconspicuous start. But things changed since the first 24-48 hours of the pre-order period, and former Piper Jaffray (now known as Piper Sandler) analyst Gene Munster says that demand eventually picked up, indicating a few things.
How will the iPhone Duo sell in its debut year?
18 Votes
Munster, now a Managing Partner and Co-Founder at Deepwater Asset Management, notes that Apple's decision to split the introduction of the iPhone 18 series into two parts is working. In an online post, Munster says that at yesterday's launch day, pre-order delivery times were 15% longer for the Pro models compared to last year's launch day.
Lead times on launch day for the iPhone 18 Pro series pre-orders. | Image by Gene Munster
He also wrote that some iPhone buyers who would normally purchase the base model, are shelling out the extra dough to buy one of the more expensive iPhone 18 Pro models. Munster says that Wall Street's forecast for fiscal 2027 iPhone revenue is 10% too low. Considering that the Street expects the iPhone to generate $274.4 billion in sales for fiscal year 2027, which will end on September 25, 2027, Munster sees the iPhone generating $301.84 billion in sales during that period.
Using data tracking iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max pre-order lead times, Munster was surprised that they were longer since he expected some traditional Pro buyers to opt for the iPhone Duo. The fact that the lead times were longer, not shorter, has him thinking that either demand for the Duo will fail to live up to expectations and potential Duo buyers are purchasing the iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Pro Max as they usually do.
This scenario is the one that Munster believes is most likely
More likely, according to Gene, is his second scenario in which traditional iPhone Pro buyers move up to the foldable Duo. With this theory, the strong iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were created by typical base model buyers moving up to buy one of the two premium Pro models. He says that the picture will become clearer once pre-orders start on October 16.
If his second scenario is right, it seems that Apple is benefiting from splitting the unveiling of the Pro and other iPhone models as consumers apparently don't mind paying more to move up to the more expensive Pro variants.
Turning to the Duo, Munster says that based on revenue estimates, Wall Street expects Apple to end up the first year with a foldable iPhone with a 35% slice of the global foldable pie. He says that this estimate is too low.
Munster says that over the last four quarters, the global market for foldable phones was 13 million units led by Huawei's 50%. Samsung, Motorola, and Honor each own 10-15% of the market while the others have 10% of the global foldable market. Samsung used to own 60% of the foldable market, but this has been reduced by competition from Motorola in the US and Honor across Europe and Asia.
Has Gene Munster figured out how iPhone buyers are responding to the split unveiling and the introduction of the foldable Duo? We will know more once the Duo pre-orders start streaming in on October 16.
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