I'm ready to admit the iPhone Duo will probably be a hit, but definitely not a revolution
Yes, I think Apple will be the world's number one foldable vendor next year, but no, I don't expect the iPhone Duo to take over the world anytime soon.
The iPhone Duo is finally here... kind of after close to a decade of waiting from both hardcore Apple fans looking for the mobile industry's "next big thing" and Apple executives looking for the likes of Samsung, Motorola, and Huawei to show them what mistakes not to echo and what foldable designs to avoid.
But is this "breakthrough" device that's scheduled for an October 23 release truly the spark that was needed to ignite a rapid expansion of the foldable market segment and the biggest shift in global consumer habits since the rise of the smartphone in the early 2010s? One generally reliable and extremely well-connected journalist and Apple leaker sure seems to think so, but I'm not convinced.
My iPhone Duo skepticism has definitely fallen to an all-time low
As some devoted PhoneArena readers might know, I'm not exactly the world's biggest Apple fan, and I'm still not sold on foldables in general. As such, I was never particularly excited by the arrival of the iPhone Duo (formerly known as iPhone Ultra and iPhone Fold), and I wasn't afraid to voice my distrust in its (eventual) box-office prospects in multiple editorials.
The main 7.6-inch screen looks like one of the iPhone Duo's biggest strengths. | Image by Apple
Now that the Galaxy Z Fold 8 rival has been formally unveiled, I must admit I was wrong about a few things and Apple certainly exceeded my expectations in at least one key area: pricing. Yes, I never thought it was possible that Cupertino's first-ever foldable device could undercut the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra (at least at its starting price), and as awesome of a job as Samsung is doing to boost the appeal of all three of its new foldables with impressive (and impressively early) discounts, the iPhone Duo remains a potentially smart buy for many people.
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"Smart buy" is not a label that's been associated with many first-gen Apple products in the past, so it definitely seems like the company was wise to wait this long to join the foldable sector, as the $1,999 price point would have probably been a lot harder to achieve two or three years ago, especially by such a polished and undeniably handsome device as this year's iPhone Duo.
The iPhone Duo's secondary screen also looks undeniably cool. | Image by Apple
As much as I hate to clash with someone as respected and knowledgeable about all things Apple as Gurman, I do think this is a totally unreasonable and unrealistic expectation hailing more from the journo's personal feelings towards the Cupertino-based tech giant than anything resembling cold facts and, well, basic common sense.
To make up "the majority" of global phone sales right now, foldables would have to exceed around 625 million units a year, and unless the market will dramatically shrink over the next decade (which is obviously highly unlikely), I don't see how the iPhone Duo's sequels and the Galaxy Z Fold 8 family's heirs could be able to come anywhere close to that kind of number.
Do you think foldables will ever outsell "normal" smartphones?
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Just consider the fact that foldable sales didn't even break the 20 million unit barrier in 2025, with the latest projections from unbiased sources like Counterpoint Research bumping that tally up to 23 million or so in 2026 and a little over 30 mil next year. Now, I'm no math whiz, but in order to see that figure jump to 600, 650, or 700 million by 2037, the foldable market would need to maintain a yearly growth rate that seems both unsustainable and unheard-of (at least to my ears).
Oh, and just to add one final (hilarious) piece of context, it was only a few months after the original Galaxy Fold's release that Strategy Analytics predicted foldable sales would reach 100 million units in 2025 (alone). That milestone is now likely to be crossed by the end of 2026, but only if we consider the combined sales of all foldables since the very inception of the market segment. So, yes, other experts have wildly overestimated the impact of foldables before, which doesn't make Gurman's overestimation feel any less utopian.
So what would be a realistic iPhone Duo expectation?
From my perspective as a former foldable iPhone hater turned (semi) believer, the 5 or 6 million units projected by multiple analytics firms for this year sounds about right.
I also now believe it's very likely that Apple will become the world's number one foldable vendor as early as next year with a tally of anywhere between 10 and 15 million unit sales and a market share exceeding 40 percent, but what comes after that depends on a lot of variables (pun intended).
The iPhone Duo is not as slim as a few of its direct rivals. | Image by Apple
If Apple does think foldables can take over the world "within a decade", iPhone Duo's sequels need to become the best and most sophisticated mobile devices you can get in all departments, from productivity and versatility to camera performance and battery life.
In other words, if the iPhone Duo 2, iPhone Duo Max, or iPhone Duo Ultra comes with a variable aperture camera, telephoto sensor, Face ID technology, and somehow, an unchanged or ideally an even lower price point, I'm definitely going to start seriously entertaining the possibility that this is the industry's mainstream future.
But we all know that's not happening, and although I'm obviously not as privy to inside information as Mark Gurman, something tells me foldable iPhones will remain a step or two behind "conventional" iPhones in key areas like imaging or screen technology for several more years (at the very least).
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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