Gartner predicts rosy future for the iPad, Honeycomb to trail
Gartner is a well-trusted tech oracle, but when it comes to predicting events in a 5-year timeframe, predictions become largely equivalent to palm-reading. Well, there might be one exception – tablets. Apple has basically created the tablet market with the original iPad and Gartner's latest prognosis says that Cupertino is to remain the dominant company. But even Steve Jobs won't be able to sustain the overwhelming popularity that the iPad is enjoying nowadays – the tablet's share will slip to some 69% this year and continue falling to around 47% in 2015.
Google's Android Honeycomb has the support of pretty much every other manufacturer out there, but this – in Gartner's views – won't prove enough for a quick start. Honeycomb tablets are to conquer the market gradually, starting from a 14% share in 2010, to reach nearly 20% this year and sprinting to the finish to close the gap with almost 39% in 2015.
The other major contender out there seems to be RIM's BlackBerry PlayBook. The 7-inch tablet holds ground with its business allure and QNX-based platform, but it will encounter one major obstacle on its way – apps. Nevertheless, Gartner forecasts bright future for the tablet which will supposedly occupy 5.6 of the market this year, only to reach the healthy 10% in 2015. But finally, HP's TouchPad will face the most difficulties. Gartner's predictions speak for a slow start for the tablet which will finish 2015 with a weak 3% presence.
Just last week, the analysts from Gartner presented us with their 5-year perspective on the cell phone market, but it was a whole different story with Android on top of the charts and Windows Phone picking up pace. Microsoft's OS, somewhat surprisingly, is not even in the forecast here, which makes us think that we might see a whole new model to reflect the three-horse race that Redmond wants to stage. Whatever the future brings, one thing is certain – the market will be a very competitive one and this is always good for the end-user.
1. protozeloz (Posts: 5381; Member since: 16 Sep 2010)
well.... they have to do something for living, I wonder how are they getting these numbers
5. remixfa (Posts: 14151; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
they use a bingo machine and randomly pull the numbers out.
Uhh, yea windows 8 for tablets is supposed to launch around christmas, which isnt that long after the palm tablet launches.
Also, the Blackberry tablet has been confirmed to be able to run the Android market, so apps wont be a problem. All the business power of a blackberry with the apps of android seems like a pretty good combination to me.
Personaly, i think this will be the last year that iOS leads in the tablet market unless they make drastic changes. It will still sell well because its apple, but it wont have a huge majority. All the other tablet OSs do more and are better optimized for the larger screens.
My "super in the know predictions" :)
Windows 8 tablet -20%
Windows 8 Tablet is where i think most school peeps that want real functionality and the most compatability will go unless something drastically changes since its a marraige of real windows 7 and phone 7. Like i said before, the first tablet that can get ALL of my online content for school without compromise gets my $$. More than likely thats windows 8 (even though im an android fanboy at heart.. lol)
7. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)
??? how can you say that Andriod will habe 40% of the market by next year??
Ipads are outselling Andriod devices as if they are the only option.
100K Xooms sold = Fail
2.4m ipads sold = Success
Blackberry is alread a fail because they are so behind they aren't even relevent anymore.
Samsung will bring the most competition but the OS will still ned tweeking over the next year
Windows8 tablet should have came out already. They missed thier opportunity!
17. AppleFUD (unregistered)
You do realize that the Nook Color is estimated to have 50% of the North American tablet market if considered a tablet? With the new update the Nook Color is every bit as much a tablet as the iPad, thus your statement is false. The Nook Color didn't even launch till October of 2010. . . in other words, it's kicking the iPad's ass!
FYI, the Nook Color only sells in N.A.
I love how iFans ignore things. Maybe you can reclassify the "iPad category" so that no other "tablets" will qualify for the category so it can still have market share.
So, what was that about the iPad selling as if there were no other choices? . . . freakin' iTards.
13. AndroidTroll (Posts: 359; Member since: 05 Mar 2011)
the image for this article really pisses me off...
14. AndroidTroll (Posts: 359; Member since: 05 Mar 2011)
what the golden apple doesn't know is that those are parasitic android robots that he is eating...After the apple is rotted out from its core, its shell will crack open to reveal 3 robust Android robots left standing.
2. nuadar (unregistered)
i dont know how others but im certainly going to buy Honecomb tablet, that platform is just completely adorable...and i even had iPad...
3. davecann2 (Posts: 460; Member since: 15 Mar 2011)
I'll stick with my ipad 2 for the next year, Andriod is just not there yet.
4. rakeshda (unregistered)
iPad At 47% in 2015... It will be around 30% or less with Android+WebOS+Others
6. doubler86 (Posts: 320; Member since: 26 Jan 2011)
lol iOS will be lucky to have even 40% by next June.
10. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5953; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
You may have missed the story about Apple buying up available display manufacturing capacity. Where are the Android manufacturers going to get manufacturing capacity to out-produce the displays headed to Apple's manufacturing partners? 40% market share in 5 years is definitely possible. Next year is a pipe dream.
18. remixfa (Posts: 14151; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
You know who makes the bulk of the displays left over in that percentage? LG and Samsung.. both make Android tablets. Samsung has also been building new display factories for a few years now to get them ready. Now immagine if LG decided to keep all the ipsLCD screens for itself and up the scale for tablets. What would Apple do since LG makes that pretty screen for the iphone?? Apple doesnt make crap, they outsource everything. They are at the mercy of their competition who actually makes the products for them. Samsung for the electronics and LG for the displays.
And its easy to be the leader when there are ony 2 contenders. As more players enter the field all with a slew of new features, they will take out of apple's camp more than android's camp. Especially since ALL of the other OSs will be tablet optimized, not just big ipods.
And actually, 2013 is 2 years away, not next year. its 2011.. and early 2011 at that.
8. PhoneLuver (Posts: 474; Member since: 05 Jul 2010)
I think this report really under estimates Windows 8. If Microsoft does a good job and delivers a fully functional OS, they have the potential of being in the top 3. It just makes sense to many people. Why do I need to sync my iPad with my Windows pc or laptop when I can get a real replacement device for my pc or laptop?
The pressure is on Android to become a fully fledged OS, (with proper USB functionality etc) and build up it's lead, before Windows 8 launches. Large companies would rather go with Windows to avoid compatibility issues.
The iPad will probably still exist, but will be seen as a useful toy, but not as a replacement device.
9. Xpple (unregistered)
yep. . . until Win8 hits we have no real idea however, they are going off the current state of things. . . that's why every year the guesses are so different.
Who knew Nokia would partner with MS? Who knows what Win8 will be?
So. . . it all things stayed they same their guess might be accurate.
We know all things WILL NOT be the same and will change dramatically.
11. Droid_X_Doug (Posts: 5953; Member since: 22 Dec 2010)
"If Microsoft does a good job and delivers a fully functional OS, they have the potential of being in the top 3." Pretty big IF there, considering they have yet to deliver a comparable (fully functional) handset OS, eh?
19. remixfa (Posts: 14151; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)
they once said the same thing about Apple getting into the phone business.
12. Kjayhawk (Posts: 291; Member since: 07 Oct 2010)
To be honest I love android, but iPads are going to be on top in the tablet industry for a long time
15. @randrums (unregistered)
It is funny and even kind of pathetic how defensive apple fans get. When anybody challenges their closed platform..they get so defensive. Comparing the Ipad to ONE device (the xoom) is not going to cut it. Android iiton many devices and will destroy apple shortly. Accept it and get over it. On 1 hand you have the ipad.. on the other hand you have an army of many different devices that run android. Its that simple. You can talk about apple hardware all you want. It is not saving i devices from a slow death. Cheers!
16. @randrums (unregistered)
Sorry. I tried typing that last comment from an ipad. I failed. Another fact is that the ipad probably has the worst auto correct I've ever seen.