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Analyst: Amazon Kindle Fire will own half of the Android tablet market in 2012

Posted: , by Alan F.

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Analyst: Amazon Kindle Fire will own half of the Android tablet market in 2012
According to Evercore Partners analyst Robert Cihra, the Amazon Kindle Fire will own half of the market for Android tablets by 2012. Even though the tablet was launched just a bit more than a couple of weeks ago, some pencil pushers are predicting as many as 5 million units of the tablet will be sold in the fourth quarter. The big feature driving these sales is price as the Amazon Kindle Fire is priced at $199.99.

Cihra says that Amazon has to sell its tablet at cost to mount a competitive threat to Apple (actually, previously reported studies show that Amazon is taking a $10 hit on each tablet sold, but turns a $10 profit on each tablet after selling apps, content and cloud based storage to Kindle Fire buyers. Cihra also says that Amazon's game plan might also eliminate other Android powered tablets. According to the analyst, "... Apple goes on as the only vendor able to cream off the most profitable segment of each market it targets, whether tablet, smartphone or PC."

Despite the minimal impact that Cihra expects the Amazon tablet to have on the iPad, he did reduce his estimate of Apple's Q1 tablet sales by 1 million units to 14 million. He also lowered his Q1 revenue estimate for the Cupertino based firm from $39.4 billion to $39.1 billion. He also cut his first quarter earnings estimate 2 cents a share to $10.26. Thanks to the ever growing influence of the Apple iPhone on the company's financials, he sees gross margin rising to 41.1% in Q1.

source: Fortune via BGR

11 Comments
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posted on 05 Dec 2011, 14:42

1. som (Posts: 768; Member since: 10 Nov 2009)


Kindle Fire didn't have a camera, led flash, light sensor, accelerometer sensor, proximity sensor, gyroscopic sensor, etc. this why it is a lot cheaper than Samsung Galaxy Tab.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 14:58 2

2. ZEUS.the.thunder.god (unregistered)


so ???
.. if you really wanna spend more go n buy yourself some cotton candy

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 15:41 2

3. The_Miz (Posts: 1496; Member since: 06 Apr 2011)


Half of a small number isn't that overly significant.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 15:53 4

4. robinrisk (unregistered)


Troll comment, yes, but true.

However, 5 million devices on the first two months of availability of a new product is significant. Specially on a market controlled by one company.

This is the first Android tablet marketed right, and good marketing pays.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 20:40 1

6. ardent1 (Posts: 1991; Member since: 16 Apr 2011)


My estimate of the Amazon Fire's return rate is 15% to 20% meaning of the 3.9 million units shipped, about as much as 800,000 units could have been returned by unhappy customers.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 22:15

7. remixfa (Posts: 13902; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)


oh absolutely ardent,
let me just check your facts, links, and records to prove that your not full of it..


oh.. wait.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 23:11 1

11. The_Miz (Posts: 1496; Member since: 06 Apr 2011)


Good point. People overlook the fact that Android has a higher turnover rate than any Apple product. And for good reason.

Plus as you can see the bitter Fandroids are thumbing down your comment just for making an observation that was actually pointed out a while back by PA.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 22:23

8. remixfa (Posts: 13902; Member since: 19 Dec 2008)


5 million in 2 months is huge.

ipad 1 and 2 has sold what.. like 60 million? is that about right? in like what.. 2 years basically?

5 million a month is 60 million in 1 year, if it keeps it up. Thats no small number, Mizzy. :)


2 sides to the coin. I too, think the Fire is going to eat up more android sales than it does iOS sales. That doesnt mean its not eating up iOS sales by the boatload either. If your a non-apple fanatic and your looking for a tablet that is dual core, can read books, stream media, get on the web, and so most anything a tablet can do, it becomes really hard to justify an extra 400 bux for what basically looks like just a difference in screen size. If you dont just have to have it because it has an apple logo on it.. its near impossible to justify the cost. If you were thinking about buying 1 ipad as a present for someone, u could buy 3 kindles for your family instead.

The other side of the coin is easy. While it may be cannibalizing a lot of potential android sales, its adding to the over all android market share by a huge amount. Thats market share that's coming out of apple.


the common decision tree "hmm. i could buy an awesome new ipad2... or for the same money i could buy 2 kindle tablets.. which might not be as cool, but even after buying myself and wife a tablet, Id still have money left over to buy Skyrim for me and a day at the masseuses for her... I think ill get the kindle instead"

You cheer on apple and their huge profit margins. the bulk of america will be making decisions like the one i just showed.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 23:08 1

10. The_Miz (Posts: 1496; Member since: 06 Apr 2011)


Lol, you overlook so many things here, remixfa. Unlike Android, iDevices have a higher retention rate. Plus, the Kindle Fire is not without its issues addition to the normal Android issues that Google still has not fixed after what, three or four years now lol?

Plus, Apple already has the iPad 3 in the works. So that kills that right there. Apple would slaughter the competition if they released a $200 tablet, but it would dilute their brand name and prestige, something Android lacks.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 23:05 1

9. The_Miz (Posts: 1496; Member since: 06 Apr 2011)


It's only selling because it's cheap. Doesn't matter if the product isn't of real quality since it does have a few issues on top of the normal Android issues.

posted on 05 Dec 2011, 20:12 2

5. mctcm (Posts: 204; Member since: 19 Oct 2011)


Good point, the sales are immaterial to the tablet market.

However, apple cannot ride the tiger forever and they have demonstrated they are more willing to legally pressure market competition than they are to push the envelope on innovation. That 11 figure cash number they're sporting may dwindle a lot faster than anyone would anticipate without strong offerings in the near future.

Odds are they will always appeal to their yuppie user base, but their current attitude is remarkably similar to RIM about 3-4 years ago.

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