T-Mobile's record-breaking subsidy for the Razr Fold makes "On Us" deal for foldable iPhone likely
The "Big 3" carriers may stop tapping the promotional brake pedal for the remainder of the year.
T-Mobile shatters record for subsidy on a single device | Image by PhoneArena
According to Counterpoint Research's Tyler Graham, when each of the "Big 3" carriers in the U.S. (Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T) held their first quarter conference calls, they spoke about a "softening" environment for device subsidies. In other words, the carriers were not being as generous with their deals. While not as positive for consumers, the reduction in subsidy dollars offered was supposed to be the case throughout the rest of 2026.
The "Big 3" each called for a reduction in subsides during 2026
The carriers were supposedly looking for alternative ways to grab consumers looking to switch wireless providers. T-Mobile's Chief Business and Product Officer Mike Katz said that the carrier wanted to offer deals that are more than just "a promotion that provides a customer value once every 1,000 days when they upgrade."
But the pressure on these companies to sign new subscribers is immense. Graham points out that Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T are each exploring different ways to stand out from the pack, add new subscribers, grow brand loyalty, and increase the Average Revenue Per Account (ARPA).
T-Mobile's latest promotion featured a record-breaking subsidy
Even though the Big 3 talked about reducing the subsidies offered to potential new customers, the reality is that if a carrier wants to attract consumers switching wireless providers, nothing beats a free flagship phone. Take T-Mobile, which recently set a record by giving a $1,700 subsidy in the form of a free book-style Motorola Razr Fold, or up to $1,700 off any eligible Motorola device.
Counterpoint's Promotional Index Tracker shows carriers reducing the quality of their promotions over the last few months. | Image by Counterpoint
The $1,700 is an all-time record high subsidy and is available by switching to T-Mobile or by adding a line on the Experience Beyond or Go5G Next plans without a trade-in. Existing customers on those premium plans can get the deal by trading in an eligible device.
T-Mobile may not have made the decision to offer the Razr Fold a record subsidy on its own. Motorola might have been looking to make a splash with its first book-style foldable and offered to support part of the subsidy. Nonetheless, T-Mobile certainly has some monetary investment in the promotion.
The Apple iPhone Fold/Ultra could challenge the record later this year
Records are made to be broken and this deal on the Motorola Razr Fold indicates that we could see a new all-time record high subsidy offered when Apple releases its first foldable iPhone later this year. Rumors about the pricing of this device have been mostly in a range from $2,000 to $2,400, which would take the subsidy required to promote a no trade-in "On Us" deal for this device into record territory.
On the other hand, $1,700 just might be the subsidy point that no one wants to cross right now. Requiring a trade-in for an iPhone Fold/Ultra "On Us" promotion could help to keep the subsidized amount on such a deal from setting a new record.
A look at Counterpoint's US Weekly Smartphone Promotions Tracker shows that the Big 3 have been reducing how aggressive their promotions have been for deals offered for postpaid accounts. From Week 17 of 2026 to Week 20 of this year, the Tracker's score has declined from a score of approximately 68 to 60. Last year at this time, the tracker went from a score of roughly 64, bottomed at 62 during Week 18, and rose to 64 by Week 20.
There are times when carriers have to step on the gas
With the Promotions Tracker confirming that the Big 3 have been turning down the heat on their promotions over the last few weeks, the 2026 Index Trend shows a gentle decline for the year. But the combination of T-Mobile's Motorola Razr Fold deal with a potential promotion for the foldable iPhone could lead the Tracker to rise sharply during the second half of 2026.
We also can't forget the holiday shopping season, including Black Friday, that is sure to raise the quality of phone promotions during the second half of 2026. Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T talk about taking their feet off of the subsidy accelerator and applying the brakes. Over the course of a full year there will always be certain devices and certain times when the competition calls for more the carriers to step on the gas.
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