First Galaxy Note 10 sales projection is good but not great, sitting below 10 million units

by Adrian Diaconescu / Aug 06, 2019, 6:10 AM

First Galaxy Note 10 sales projection is good but not great, sitting below 10 million units

The Galaxy Note 10 lineup is technically not out yet, but because we already know so much about the specs, features, and even price points of Samsung's next big thing(s), it's time to tackle a topic that hasn't been discussed a lot by leakers, insiders, and industry pundits so far. How well will the Note 10 and Note 10+ do at the box office?

Of course, in order to correctly assess the commercial success of the two flagship phones expected to be unveiled tomorrow and released in a couple of weeks, we have to put Counterpoint's prediction in the right context. According to Korean media, the reputable market research firm is currently projecting a global sales total of 9.7 million units for the Note 10 family this year, which would put it ever so slightly ahead of 2018's Galaxy Note 9 but also narrowly behind 2017's Note 8.

More variants don't always equate to higher sales

Given the popularity of the Galaxy S10 trio, which has reportedly outsold the Galaxy S9 duo by a wide margin, you'd be inclined to think Samsung's decision to launch two main models of the upcoming Galaxy Note 10 is the key to another blockbuster. Then again, it was probably the quality of the S10 roster rather than the number of variants that made it such a desirable product for so many people.

Besides, it doesn't look like a budget-friendly Note 10e is in the cards after all, while the "regular" Note 10 might prove a fairly tough sell without a microSD card slot or a fourth rear-facing camera sporting one of those forward-thinking time of flight sensors with support for advanced AR experiences.

What remains unclear is whether the aforementioned 9.7 million unit shipment forecast includes 5G-enabled models or not. The Galaxy S10 lineup, for instance, crossed 16 million sales during the year's second quarter without taking into consideration the (pretty impressive) numbers of the special 5G edition. If that's also the case this time around, 9.7 million wouldn't be so bad, as the 5G-capable Note 10 Plus could help boost that figure over the 10 mil mark. 10 million happens to be how many Galaxy Note 8 units Samsung managed to ship around the world back in 2017... when the market was still growing at a remarkable pace.

Is Samsung in trouble?

The short answer to that million-dollar question is probably not. Granted, the tech giant saw its mobile division profit plummet to a little over $1.3 billion in Q2 2019 due primarily to "stagnant demand for premium products", but at the same time, the company improved its overall smartphone shipment scores and market share compared to last year's second quarter.

As Huawei's situation can still be described best as uncertain and Apple is unlikely to bring a radical redesign or many meaningful upgrades to the iPhone family this fall, the Galaxy Note 10 and Note 10+ could well help Samsung maintain and possibly even extend its lead at the top of the global smartphone sales chart.

The mid-range Galaxy A series will also be pivotal for Samsung's volume growth prospects, but although we don't expect the 5G-capable A90 to be particularly affordable, the sprouting success of the non-flagship lineup might put even more pressure on the company's profit margins. All in all, there's a good chance Samsung's smartphone shipments will continue to improve by the end of the year at the expense of actual financial gains. Of course, a $1 billion+ quarterly bottom line for just one of the chaebol's business units is nothing to sneeze at.

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14 Comments

1. User123456789

Posts: 818; Member since: Feb 22, 2019

Note will never sell as much as S, even at same price. Nothing new.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 6:39 AM 6

9. pimpin83z

Posts: 469; Member since: Feb 08, 2019

It wasn't meant to. The Note has always been geared towards a different type of user than the S. Nothing new.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 11:53 AM 1

2. geordie8t1

Posts: 287; Member since: Nov 16, 2015

What im not overly happy with is that they may have simply removed some features or ommited others from the standard note 10 and retained its price point, then added some features back with a few new bits and jacked up the price.....tut tut, i will wait to see the retail price/goodies and trade in deals before defore taking the plunge on the N10+

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 6:57 AM 0

4. iloveapps

Posts: 855; Member since: Mar 21, 2019

9.7M for 5 months while apple sells 10M in less than a month and sgodsell still mocks apple with that.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 7:53 AM 2

7. Alcyone

Posts: 309; Member since: May 10, 2018

10 million of just one model? Or combined sales of all iPhones? Even then, its irrelevant to why the Note was created. Note line was never intended to sell to the masses as the S line. Notes are used by more people that need the extra productivity the S pen allows. What iPhone has the productivity output the Notes have...?

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 10:04 AM 0

11. lyndon420

Posts: 6736; Member since: Jul 11, 2012

His response to that question tells you all you need to know...

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 9:20 PM 1

14. oldskool50

Posts: 1323; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

Even though the Note was not meant to be a mass production phone, that doesn't mean it couldn't be. The Note III was so awesome it sold over 30M. In fact for the year of the S4 and Note III tandem, together both phone sold over 100M in just one year. The S4 sold 70M buy itself, making it the top selling single model from Samsung. The S3 sold 50M. Apple sells 10M phones in a month. Yeah, based on 6 total selling models. he talkign about the Note which is ONE model, selling 10M over 3 months. Let's look at the fact, Samsung sells roughtly 75-80Million phones per quarter, with them selling 290M phones last year. That means they sell roughly 24.1Million phones per month over a year. Apple last sold roughly 190M iPhone's with 6 total selling models. that break down to about 15Million phones per month. Based on scale, we already know as a fact, that the production runs are about 5M phones per model, per month. The Note is basically priced out of most countries just like the iPhone at $1000+ But Samsung phones outside the US still cost considerably less money vs an iPhone. Samsung sold just over 1M Note 9's last year in their one country, Apple sold even less phone in SK last year. This alone tells you price is an issue. But this analyst claiming in 4 months and 3 weeks and Samsung will only sell 9.7M total Note phones, is BS. In the US alone, I expect Samsung will sell 5M Note 10's in 5 months. Since AT&T have the most business customers on the enterprise, they alone will sell at least 1M Note devices, because they have done so every year since the very first model consistently. Verizon alone will sell at least 700,000 and if they do a BOGO deal, that means that number automatically double. T-Mobile and sprint combine will sell at least one million between them, then you add their MVNO's, you add their other carriers that pus the number to 5M at the least. I am sure Samsung would love to sell 30M of them like they did the Note III, but at $1000 each, its not gonna happen. They still sell roughly 20M Note's per year, I don't see this to be any different. Especially with the millions of ATT customers who will have access to ATT's 5G network.

posted on Aug 07, 2019, 10:40 AM 0

5. tedkord

Posts: 17307; Member since: Jun 17, 2009

Too many compromises. A stupid hole in the screen, dumb as a notch. No 3.5mm jack. Those two alone are enough for me to say no.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 9:05 AM 0

8. Cicero

Posts: 1115; Member since: Jan 22, 2014

Like almost all the phones fir now.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 10:12 AM 0

6. sissy246

Posts: 7070; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

No one has no idea how many will sale, the damn thing is not even out. Note line has NEVER be Samsungs big seller. All I know is my money is ready for the note 10+.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 9:14 AM 3

15. oldskool50

Posts: 1323; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

Yes the Note has NEVER been it's bigger seller. But even though they don't know how many they will sell, they can see trends. And the fact is, as the Note because more expensive, as with the S; the sales numbers started to drop. The Note 3 sold 30M which was it's peak. The Note 4 sold less, the Note 5 sold even lesser. The Note 7 was on track to nearly match the Note III; but well we know what happened. The Note 8 increased in price $130 above what the Note 7 cost, to $930, and then the Note 9 increased by $70. Selling 10M in just 5 months for one model to me is pretty good. That's almost 2M per month. Apple sells 15M on average per month. Stretch that over 6 selling models, that means they also sell roughly 2M of each per month. Samsung sells 24M per month on average. That's roughly 6M phones per week. No matter how many they do or don't sell really doesn't matter. I want one, but the price needs to be what I want to pay and I don't wanna pay $1200 each for 2. I want 2 for $1200 like I got last year. I'm hoping VZW offers a BOGO deal again.

posted on Aug 07, 2019, 10:56 AM 0

10. rizzell

Posts: 27; Member since: Dec 31, 2011

I guarantee if Samsung created a Note with the same specs as the Note 10 with a flat screen, bigger battery and put back the headphone jack it would definitely sell out. Nobody cares about the gimmick curved screen anymore or how many cameras you can fit in a phone.

posted on Aug 06, 2019, 7:03 PM 0

12. CableTelcontar

Posts: 91; Member since: Nov 19, 2014

I guarantee that that is your opinion.

posted on Aug 07, 2019, 5:50 AM 1

13. oldskool50

Posts: 1323; Member since: Mar 29, 2019

This person has no idea how many phones Samsung is gonna sell. If he is claiming that between Aug 8 until Dec 31? I can definitely say he is completely wrong. But Note sales have dropped, not because no one wants the phone. It because since the Note 4, the price of the phone has gone up $300-$600 depending on model and peopel simply don't want to pay it. I buy a phone every year. The only reason I bought the Note 8, was because of the Note 7 fiasco. I was very tempted to just stick with the Galaxy S, after getting the S8; but I love the Note. I bought the Note 9 only because VZW offer a BOGO deal, so I got the 512 model for me and the 128 for the wife. If they didn't offer that deal, I would have kept my Note 8 or I would have bought the S10's instead. The only way I will be buying the Note 10 is on a BOGO deal. I am not going to pay $2000 to buy 2 phones. I always buy a phone and just pay half, then sell it and use the money to buy the next model. So that I always own 2 models for the price of one. So if I an get 2 phones for the price of one, then I am all in. If not, I will wait for a price drop. I'm not saying the Note doesn't offer $1000 in value. I simply feel that the tech in these phones are nothign more than the expected improvements year over year. But in my opinion, nothign about the S or Note has significantly changes as far as features that the price should exceed the original price of the Note 7. The Note 7 was $850. The Note 8 and 9 basically have the same features, other than extra storage, better cameras and bigger screens. But I just don't see the extra $300/$400 price bump. If Samsung wants to get high sales, surprise us and drop the price down for the Note 10 to $799 and the 10+ to $899, and it will be sold out everywhere in the US and they could sell over 50M of them. But see they don't want too. What Samsung is trying to do is be Apple in that, yes they could sell cheaper and make more phone and make a lot of money over time. But long production runs cost more money. So selling less product for more money is what they are gunning for and I don't like it one bit. There is zero saturation of premium buyers. Premium buyers have a perception of value. They see that these phones are not worth $1000 and even if they are, we simply don't want to pay it. Just because you may have the money; doesn't mean I have to waste in on something I feel isn't worth what it costs. And yes the phone with any added freebies, certainly brings a value of $1000, but I don't want to pay it and millions of others are saying the same with their wallets. Both Apple and Samsung are gettign their wake-up call. You need to heed the warning or both of you are gonna be in some serious trouble with sales.