Global smartphone shipments forecast to run into incredibly strong headwinds this year
Shortages and overpriced RAM chips and the tensions in the Middle War are pointing toward a weak year for smartphone shipments.
Smartphone shipments could drop sharply this year. | Image by Apple
We already have heard from analytics firms like Counterpoint and IDC that global smartphone shipments are expected to fall in 2026. Both see a huge decline in global smartphone deliveries in excess of 12% this year. To be precise, both firms released their most bearish forecasts over the last decade, with Counterpoint expecting a year-over-year 12.4% decline in shipments and IDC looking for a 12.9% drop. That works out to a decline in worldwide smartphone shipments of approximately 1.1 billion units this year.
Higher memory prices and RAM shortages will lead to a decline in 2026 global smartphone shipments
Omdia has thrown in its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026, and while not as dire as the other two estimates, it still calls for a 7% decline in global deliveries of the device for 2026. Shortages of RAM memory chips, which have resulted in higher prices for the component, are expected to ease during the second half of the year. However, the constrained supply and higher pricing for memory will put pricing pressure on smartphone manufacturers in 2026.
Is Omdia's worst-case scenario about to happen?
Memory is now a larger percentage of the bill of materials (BOM) cost causing a drop-off in profits, especially for lower-priced, entry-level models. As a result, smartphone vendors have started to raise prices in order to maintain profit margins. But as you might recall from your Econ 101 class, higher prices result in lower demand, which explains why we are looking at a bad year ahead for smartphone shipments.
Omdia expects global smartphone shipments to decline by 7% in 2026. | Image by Omdia
With the Middle East war, smartphone shipments might decline as much as 15%
Also adding to cost pressures for handset manufacturers is the war in the Middle East. In addition to what Omdia calls "escalating geopolitical tensions. This could lead to higher energy prices, higher freight costs, and instability in the foreign exchange markets. All of these things can cause prices of materials to rise and that, of course, can cause the price of smartphones to rise.
Omdia's forecast of a 7% decline in global smartphone shipments, if it happens, would snap two consecutive years of growth, with smartphone shipments rising 7% and 2% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. However, under the worst-case scenario, if the war in the Middle East causes all the aforementioned issues to crater the global economy, Omdia says that worldwide smartphone shipments could decline by 15%, possibly exceeding the 12% decline experienced in 2022.
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