The first Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 2 and Note 20 5G sales forecast is in, and it's... mixed

The first Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 2 and Note 20 5G sales forecast is in, and it's... mixed
Even though we're still a few hours away from the official announcement of Samsung's "next big thing(s)", the Galaxy Note 20 duo and Z Fold 2 5G have stopped being a secret a pretty long time ago. What may seem a little harder to predict is exactly how popular these ultra-high-end smartphones will prove both in the short and long run.

That's because the mobile industry is in an exceptionally volatile and unstable place right now due primarily to all the uncertainty still associated with the coronavirus situation in many key markets around the world, US included. Samsung appears to have been hit particularly hard by the globally shrinking demand for high-priced devices like the Galaxy S20 series, opening the door to a new leader in shipments in the budget-conscious Huawei.

Add in the equation the highly anticipated October launch of Apple's first-ever 5G-capable iPhones, which are widely expected to start at almost shockingly low prices, and you could definitely understand why industry analysts and market research companies would be reluctant to make any firm predictions regarding the success (or lack thereof) of Samsung's hot new flagships. 

But according to Yonhap News, one of the industry's most reliable data analytics firms is in fact prepared to do just that, forecasting some... interesting (and specific) numbers for the imminent Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G and Note 20 series.

The good news

While it's perhaps not fair to compare what looks like a significantly more refined and mature product with a profoundly experimental and deeply flawed one at its core, today's Counterpoint Research prophecy for the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G strongly suggests its initial production volumes will not be quite as constrained as rumored a couple of months ago.

That's because Samsung could end the year with around 500,000 Z Fold 2 unit sales, which is a pretty big number for a device tipped to cost $2,000 or so when it eventually becomes available. That's likely to happen at some point in mid-September, mind you, making the aforementioned figure that much more encouraging, as it would equate to a little over 140,000 monthly sales through the end of 2020.

Of course, that's not an impressive average by conventional Samsung flagship standards, but as amazing as the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G looks in those leaked high-quality renders, this is still not what we'd call a mass-oriented product. 

In case you're wondering, the original Fold sold around 400,000 copies by the end of 2019, having been unveiled in its initial form in February and ultimately released in early September.

The not-so-good news

While the Galaxy Z Fold 2 5G is the epitome of technical innovation and design evolution in a time when the smartphone industry badly needs both those things to move forward, the Note 20 and Note 20 Ultra 5G look... awfully familiar.


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Although we wouldn't go so far as to deem them identical copies of the S20 and S20 Ultra released earlier this year, they're also not doing much to stand out from the high-end pack. All things considered, including the undoubtedly high price of the larger version and the surprising downgrades of the smaller model, we're definitely not shocked to hear the Galaxy Note 20 5G series is predicted to be less popular than the Note 10 lineup.

If anything, Samsung might be happy if the Note 20 and Note 20 Ultra indeed combine to sell 8.5 million units worldwide in their "debut year", which would represent a relatively small decline from the 9 million sales generated by the Note 10 and Note 10+.

Granted, that was itself a lower number than the 9.6 million units estimated for the Galaxy Note 9, but given the current economic climate and the much bigger drop in popularity experienced by the S20 family in comparison with its forerunners, 8.5 million would be a fairly decent result. Not great, not terrible.

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