I don’t think the foldable iPhone stands a chance against the Galaxy Z Fold 8

Every year since the launch of the iPhone 12 mini, Apple has had at least one smartphone model that could be considered a failure. While there’s a month before it premieres, it feels more and more likely that the foldable iPhone will be the company’s 2026 misfire.

Unlike before, the stakes this time feel higher, and the reasons appear more complex. There are rumors of major production issues and early design leaks that both point to some serious issues inside Apple.

The consequence could be a humiliating loss against Samsung. The Galaxy Z Fold 8 is already turning into a resounding success, and I think Apple’s chances to surpass it dwindle by the day. Here’s why.

The iPhone Ultra sure looks like a design mess

Apple is famed for its great design, but we often forget the long list of horrible errors the company made. Horror classics like the trashcan Mac Pro, the Magic Mouse 2 with the bottom-side charging port, and the butterfly keyboard on the MacBook Pro are only a few of the examples.

The iPhone Ultra may not top this list, but its design quirks could be bad enough to join it. One reason is the asymmetrical front side when the phone is folded. On the right, you have the rounded corners of the display, while on the left are the square corners that go into the hinge, just like on the Pixel 11 Pro Fold.

Then there are the selfie cameras, which are rumored to end up in the corners of the two displays of the foldable iPhone. The outer one will be in the top-right part, while the internal may end up in the top-left corner. Certainly a quirk that will lead to millions of weird selfies and irritated users.

None of these is such a big deal, but they could make the iPhone Ultra feel unpolished, especially compared to the wonderful Galaxy Z Fold 8. Samsung’s passport-style foldable has a harmonious design and centered cameras, which make it feel delightful. A word I wouldn’t use for any of the leaked iPhone Ultra images.

Availability is the key to success

Selling many phones requires producing many phones and shipping them to many potential buyers. We’ve been hearing for months that Apple is suffering production issues, but the latest reports claim that the situation is so bad it could affect availability and lead to a staggered release.

In practical terms, this could mean a limited US-only launch of the iPhone Ultra, followed by a slow rollout across the globe over several months. Samsung will be the big winner if that happens, and it’ll get the opportunity to keep its leading position in the global foldable market a little longer.

The Korean company has been dominating until now in great part because of the wide availability of its phones. While competitors like Huawei, Oppo, and Honor have often offered better hardware, their phones were rarely available outside of China, leaving Samsung with the lion’s share of the global market. 

In China, things are very different, and Galaxy Z phones got under 5% market share even after the Galaxy Z Fold 7 premiere. This is bad news for Apple, because any availability issues will play in Samsung’s favor. Unfortunately, that’s not the end of the iPhone Ultra issues.

Samsung may have won with its price already

It’s clear that the die-hard Apple fans are going to buy the foldable iPhone regardless of anything. No matter how problematic, ugly, or expensive it is, the device will enjoy strong initial sales.

When this excitement dies down, Samsung will have the edge thanks to what’s probably its greatest achievement this year. The company managed to launch the standard 256GB model of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 at “only” $1,900.

While far from cheap, this could be much more affordable than Apple’s price. The most optimistic rumors put the iPhone Ultra’s starting price at $2,000, but the most likely price could be about $2,300. 

The potential $400 difference may not be enough to make iPhone fans switch to a Samsung foldable, but anyone who doesn’t care that much about iOS may feel differently. Add the better design, and the easier availability to the mix, and you can see why Apple is in trouble.

Of course, all these are mostly speculations at the moment, and we still need to wait for the premiere of the iPhone Ultra. There’s still hope that Apple has a surprise up its sleeve, and even if I don’t believe that’s the case, I’d be eager to be proven wrong.

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