iPhone XR expected to account for majority of new iPhone shipments this year, despite late launch2
But none of that is stopping analysts from doing what they do, analyzing recent sales patterns, looking at average selling prices in previous years, and trying to anticipate the market’s response to Apple’s three highly anticipated new iPhones.
After crunching the (early) numbers, Digitimes Research has issued its first post-announcement estimate, forecasting a grand total of more than 85 million unit shipments for the iPhone XS, XS Max, and XR in the second half of 2018 alone.
Of course, the year’s second half has started months ago, which means the 85 million+ tally will need to come from roughly three and a half months of iPhone XS/XS Max sales, as well as a little over two months in stores for the more affordable iPhone XR.
Despite only kicking off pre-orders on October 19, with in-store availability underway on the 26th of next month, the LCD screen-sporting iPhone XR is expected to single-handedly account for over 50 percent of the aforementioned combined shipment figures. That’s more than 40 million units for this single-camera bad boy between October 26 and December 31, which sounds outright staggering.
Granted, these premature predictions should generally be viewed with skepticism, although if you look back at all the analyst forecasts and guesses regarding the 2018 iPhone lineup, you’ll see many were right on the money.
All in all, Apple is tipped to globally ship around 127 million iPhones, new and old, in H2 2018, which would represent “modest” volume growth compared to the same period last year. But thanks to a higher-than-ever ASP (average selling price), total iPhone revenues could increase by a solid 10 percent to almost $100 billion between July and December.