AT&T's big connectivity win over T-Mobile might be around the corner

AT&T believes it can leapfrog T-Mobile in the next connectivity battleground.

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AT&T Dallas | Image by AT&T Discovery District
While AT&T inked a partnership with AST SpaceMobile in mid-2024 to bring satellite connectivity to its customers, nothing tangible has come of the collaboration. That may soon change, with AT&T claiming it's one step closer to a beta program. The carrier suggests the patience will pay off, throwing indirect shade at T-Mobile, which officially launched the service in July last year.

Bigger satellites for the win



This week, AST handed over its BlueBird 7 (BB7) satellites to the space company Blue Origin, putting it closer to launch into Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Equipped with a denser antenna array than its commercial rivals, the BB7 can provide broader coverage, better connectivity, and higher speeds. AST claims peak data rates of 120 Mbps, much higher than what T-Mobile provides.

AT&T is celebrating this milestone and hopes to match or exceed T-Satellite with fewer satellites.

Will AST make good on its promise?


AST is a rival to SpaceX, the rocket company whose Starlink Direct to Cell constellation T-Mobile uses to deliver messaging and data services to dead zones. SpaceX has over 650 satellites in orbit.

AST hopes to launch 45 to 60 satellites this year to bring space-powered cellular broadband connectivity to customers.

However, AST doesn't have a good track record of meeting its goals, and some have even questioned its ambitions. According to Light Reading, the company set a target of five launches for Q1, but has so far only launched one BlueBird 6 satellite.

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Satellite analyst and TMF Associates president Tim Farrar isn't optimistic about the company's progress and doesn't expect it to deliver a continuous service across the US this year.

The number of satellites AST deploys will impact its coverage and, subsequently, the launch plans for its partners, which also include Verizon.

AT&T previously said it would roll out a beta program in the first half of the year to select customers, but shied away from providing a commercial timeline.

The company is building infrastructure for the service, including the deployment of ground gateways to connect the satellites to its network.

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Size matters


The larger size of the BlueBird communications array will theoretically allow AST to deliver broadband speeds to smartphones, which could give AT&T an edge over T-Mobile. However, smartphone users typically don't need blazing fast speeds when they are in deadzones, where even basic connectivity suffices. More importantly, customers spend more time in areas with terrestrial coverage, so fast satellite speeds may not be that big of a draw.

Still, a win is a win, and at a time when satellite is the new buzzword, faster speeds could give AT&T an edge over T-Mobile. Whether that would have any material effect on its business remains to be seen.

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