Analyst expects iPhone sales to drop next year, predicts no big redesign

Analyst expects iPhone sales to drop next year, predicts no big redesign
The 2018 iPhone lineup

At one point, Apple’s brand-recognition and premium image appeared unstoppable in the smartphone segment. But over the past few months, multiple reports have hinted at weak sales. And now, in yet another blow, Nomura analyst Anne Lee is expecting further sales declines in both 2019 and 2020.

From a very respectable 213 million units in 2018, the analyst in question believes Apple’s iPhone shipments will drop to 204 million units next year, before falling even further to 200 million in 2020. This will reportedly happen due to “limited changes” in the external department.

According to the report, Apple will retain the design language introduced with the iPhone X one final time in 2019. This essentially means that the iPhone XR, iPhone XS, and iPhone XS Max successors will be almost identical to the current-gen devices in the looks department. The only major difference, other than the usual internal upgrades and camera improvements, will be the presence of some extra Augmented Reality features, according to the analyst.

As a direct result of this, Apple is expected to introduce some external changes to its iPhones in 2020, although these weren’t specified. Anyhow, the most likely change will be the removal of the controversial notch. In addition to this, the analyst states that a greater focus on AR and the introduction of 5G to the iPhone lineup are to be expected.

At the moment, Apple itself hasn’t officially addressed any of the recent sales reports. But a few recent changes to its marketing strategy do suggest that they are true. Because of this, further declines in the coming years wouldn’t be impossible.

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56 Comments

1. Ichimoku

Posts: 173; Member since: Nov 18, 2018

Everything have a peak point.

3. joshuaswingle

Posts: 641; Member since: Apr 03, 2018

Yep. At this point the focus of everyone should be the company's profit and how it reduces its dependence on the iPhone, imo.

6. cmdacos

Posts: 4265; Member since: Nov 01, 2016

Easily done. They already have their strategy of raising prices without adding value.

15. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Unfortunately, that's absolutely true. Only Midan, Peaceboy, Pyiath, Rouyal, Whatev, and Leo disagree.

21. Subie

Posts: 2392; Member since: Aug 01, 2015

I'd add NateDiaz as well.

23. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

He’s a racist, I don’t even speak his name.

27. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

He has been limited LMAOOOOO

28. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Good, he needs to be banned anyway.

37. whatev

Posts: 2332; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

I’m glad I live in your mind 24/7 granny, Samsung is also doing the same btw, raising prices without adding value and that’s why they are hemorrhaging customers. Btw your wife is creating a mess in a Nokia article, slap her for misbehaving, that woman has no manners

38. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Whatev(errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr). I call you come, you just haven’t caught on yet lol.

41. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

45. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

Oh look the snake in the grass comes out, claiming Samsung dowels the same? The Note 9 for $1000, has 128GB of internal vs 64GB, has better cameras, support pen input, comes with one too, has more ran sonic can hold almost 40 apps in memory, while the iaohine handles maybe 15, bigger screen, higher res display, support for Dolby, HDR10, better headphones in box, fast charger, all adapters, more features and so much more. What a frickin joke these guys are. That's I say, just talk tech with those who agree, because fans will always be onesided. If you just love all tech for what it is, the petty crap they always wanna argue, ain't even worth it. An idiot can't be straighten out. They are like people who believe the earth is flat Then when answer with something like, well because if it was, there was ne no need for time zones; they say you're the one who is stupid. You can't reason with a person who is unreasonable. Please just let them wallow in their own stupidity. Apple fans are obsessed with total lack of class.

22. joshuaswingle

Posts: 641; Member since: Apr 03, 2018

Increasing the prices only works in the short-term, though. Apple can't keep raising prices forever.

25. xfire99

Posts: 1206; Member since: Mar 14, 2012

They can't lower price either. It's even worser than not show8ng shipping report. Shareholders won't be happy and lowering price is same telling everyone the sales declining are much worse than its now. I already said with iPhone X price tag is theirs dead mistake. Same with others that following Apples price tag and theirs sales will declines as well. Majority are not willing to pay $1000 for a god damn phone. Doesn't matter what it can do. Unless it can make call to the future and ask for the lotto numbers.

2. dubaiboy78

Posts: 455; Member since: Sep 19, 2014

Greedy fruit will end for sure

16. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

They wont end, but they're definitely losing their grip.

4. Be_Mine

Posts: 290; Member since: Dec 29, 2013

Apple will probably change the Antenna Lines and the Rear Camera (Possibly 3 Lens). *Voila*... All new best iPhone Apple have ever made again.

11. worldpeace

Posts: 3135; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

That's a nice reason to reduce battery size.. Apple might actually did that.

5. drunkenjay

Posts: 1697; Member since: Feb 11, 2013

im expecting the notch to be a little smaller, probably a faster face id, dual cameras and a slightly thinner bezel.

7. gamehead unregistered

People finally waking up

17. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

Wallets are speaking. Even iFans are waking up and want more. I can't blame them one bit either.

47. strategic_developer

Posts: 1627; Member since: Jul 17, 2018

I think it's just the price. If they actually wanted more, they wouldn't be fans to begin with. I certainly don't wanna pay $1000 for a phone which is why I was gonna skip the Note 9 and just wait for the 10. So getting 2 phones for one price if $1250 was a no brainer. Outside the US, the iPhone was already priced out of reach of the majority. Now they have basically sealed their own fate. At least Damsung has lower priced phones and can compete. Apple simply cant.

30. Nine1Sickness

Posts: 896; Member since: Jan 30, 2011

it’s still top notch.

8. miketer

Posts: 527; Member since: Apr 02, 2015

I expect the notch to disappear in 2020 models

9. rouyal

Posts: 1583; Member since: Jan 05, 2018

People are satisfied. Apple probably hitting a bubble, but they make their products so good (probably too good), and update for many years, folks are just satisfied and not upgrading. Good for the consumer, but bad for business. It’s not like android where consumers are constantly on the lookout for a new phone to get satisfying experience months after they get a phone (spoiler alert: there is none).

10. sissy246

Posts: 7124; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

No, people are getting smarter and not paying the price. They are letting their wallets speak. And its not just apple, its the same for Samsung also.

13. rouyal

Posts: 1583; Member since: Jan 05, 2018

No, iPhone users are satisfied. If people were “voting with their wallets”, market share would decrease. YOU might speak with your wallet, but don’t assume everyone else is you.

19. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

I'm an iPhone user, and I'm not satisfied. In fact, I'm very dissatisfied, and wanna see more

24. rouyal

Posts: 1583; Member since: Jan 05, 2018

That’s fine, you have the right to your opinion, but doesn’t reflect the average iPhone user.

33. Supah

Posts: 692; Member since: Mar 08, 2017

And your iTrolling opinions reflect the avg iPhone users?? Now that's an iJoke LMAOOOOO

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

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