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One analyst doesn't believe the iWatch is real

Posted: , by Michael H.

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One analyst doesn't believe the iWatch is real
Given all of the reports, rumors, and speculation that has been surrounding the iWatch for the past year or so, this is one analyst opinion that hasn't popped up too often. Mike Oertli from OpTe.ch doesn't agree with the majority of the media, which are essentially saying that the iWatch release is inevitable. In fact, Oertli doesn't believe the iWatch is real at all.

The reasoning behind his theory is somewhat sound: Apple doesn't usually release products when the technology isn't ready. We have all come to grips with the fact that right now, component sizes and battery technology isn't where it needs to be in order to offer a true smartwatch that can act independently from a smartphone. Also, Apple tends to want to aim for high-class design, which is an entirely different beast in the watch market. A smartphone with premium design can be sold for $600 or so, but a watch with a premium design is hard to get under $1000, or so the idea from Oertli goes. 

The thing is that Oertli is conflating watches with smartwatches, and thinking that the two are going to be direct competitors. Premium watches tend to be extremely expensive because they are completely mechanical, and it costs quite a bit more to build multiple watch gears than it is to build a motherboard and processor. Also, smartwatches seems to be aiming at a much different consumer than a traditional watch, which is more of a fashion item, while smartwatches are much more functional. 

Oertli goes beyond his original, somewhat reasonable ideas, into the territory of complete error based on a misunderstanding of the topic he is confronting. He says that because the watch space is one where Apple's "one size fits all" philosophy simply cannot work, that it could be possible for Apple to be building a software ecosystem that supports 3rd party hardware. The trouble with this idea is that Apple's need to control the ecosystem top to bottom will always trump the "one size fits all" philosophy. 

source: OpTe.ch via BGR

42 Comments
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posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:19 11

1. XperiaFanZone (Posts: 1313; Member since: 21 Sep 2012)


Of course it's not real, it doesn't exist!

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:42 9

4. androiphone20 (Posts: 1450; Member since: 10 Jul 2013)


Yes, here's our very own ANALyst on Phonearena!

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:04 3

8. Finalflash (Posts: 1762; Member since: 23 Jul 2013)


He could be right though, since this rumor has been out for like a year and a half now and no product design or even prototype has been heard of. For that matter, making something of this complexity would leak several different portions from several sources by now if it had gone into production for this year. If there is an iWatch, we probably will not see it in any good quantity this year because if the design hasn't taped out yet, there is no chance of them finalizing, building, testing and releasing if the manufacturer (foxconn or whoever they use) doesn't get started soon. If they had started, we likely would have had some small amount of info leak as to the fact that something has started.

Also, if Apple has just sanctioned their Sapphire Glass factory to be built now, there is no chance of smart watches being released from Apple this year (assuming they use Sapphire) because using the current supply of Sapphire would likely lead to shortages.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:34 1

10. androiphone20 (Posts: 1450; Member since: 10 Jul 2013)


Whether they'll use sapphire or not there's no better time to announce the iwatch than this year. I really don't see the Apple/GT Advanced deal falling far behind schedule. Yes, supply could fall short but is that really new? That could easily bring up sales figures up too.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:46 1

12. XperiaFanZone (Posts: 1313; Member since: 21 Sep 2012)


The product has not yet been finalised.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 15:40 2

23. InspectorGadget80 (Posts: 6497; Member since: 26 Mar 2011)


And I praise him

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:47 1

6. Arte-8800 (banned) (Posts: 4562; Member since: 13 Mar 2014)


Concept looking designs never exzist, to good to be true.

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 07:07

35. sam3k (Posts: 34; Member since: 02 May 2013)


Apple doesn't know if they want to go ahead with the i watch, because samsung, sony and pebble has gone with all the good features and idias, trust me they are confuse.

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 21:32

39. InspectorGadget80 (Posts: 6497; Member since: 26 Mar 2011)


He's ONE SMART analyst!

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:35 1

2. jroc74 (Posts: 4783; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


That is true about Apple not usually releasing products when the tech isnt ready.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:18 11

9. willard12 (Posts: 796; Member since: 04 Jul 2012)


Apple Maps

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:34 6

14. ph00ny (Posts: 602; Member since: 26 May 2011)


First iPhone.

Didn't even come with MMS capabilities. Same goes for copy and paste

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:41 1

18. jroc74 (Posts: 4783; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


But with the iPhone...Apple took some chances...

Capacitive screen, the UI setup for smartphones, like you said a half baked phone.

After the orig iPhone Apple has been kinda conservative. iPhone 4 with the display was probably the last time they went outside their norm.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 16:04

25. superduper (Posts: 150; Member since: 20 Oct 2013)


What are MMS?

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 16:45 3

27. tedkord (Posts: 4776; Member since: 17 Jun 2009)


They are delicious candies that melt in your mouth, not in your hands.

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 11:54

38. darkkjedii (Posts: 11395; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


LMAOOOOO +1

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 21:33

40. InspectorGadget80 (Posts: 6497; Member since: 26 Mar 2011)


and pinch to ZOOM

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:35

15. AfterShock (Posts: 2803; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)


+10
Well done.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:37

16. jroc74 (Posts: 4783; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


I dont think you understand the statement...

Maps software has been around for years. Look how long it took Apple do do Maps. Look how long its taking Apple to do NFC.

Its not about tech Apple has released that isnt ready....but tech overall that is still somewhat new Apple doesnt touch.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:43 1

19. AfterShock (Posts: 2803; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)


Are you saying Wills statement is lost on you?
That really is a shame because its their tech, they made or bought it an released as is.
That Ant issue was hardware.. Took another phone to be solved..idk.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 15:21

22. jroc74 (Posts: 4783; Member since: 30 Dec 2010)


Look at what I said about Maps and NFC.

The iPhone still doesnt have NFC yet. When did smart watches come out? Look how long it was between the first smartphone and the iPhone if you wanna talk about hardware.

Apple did the Newton...before Palm did their first smartphone. The Newton failed miserably. Compare that to the release of the iPhone and iPad. Apple usually waits til they think the technology is mature enough. Very rarely do they just jump out there.

By the time they do NFC...it will be when battery life issues, compatibility issues have been tested, gone thru by others...

Like someone mentioned....look how long before they did an LTE phone.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 17:26

29. Doakie (Posts: 1254; Member since: 06 May 2009)


That might have been true when Steve Jobs was alive. Their releases have become more and more buggy each year. Which is fine I might say because getting a product out the door at 98% is fine if you can fix that last 2% through software patches. I'm just saying Apple isn't the perfectionist company it once was.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:36 1

3. camera531 (Posts: 162; Member since: 30 Jun 2012)


He obviously never heard of the Moto 360, because that's a high end smart watch that has an outstanding design and very advanced new OS. Smart watches aren't (yet) meant to be full replacements of phones, which is why they aren't fully independent. This analysis is as dumb as claiming that the iPod nano isn't "ready" because it still relies on a computer to get iTunes.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:49 1

13. KillgoreTroutTime (Posts: 296; Member since: 06 Jan 2014)


So you have used a 360? Oh, you havnt? Then you know as much about it than I do, which is not much at all.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:43 4

5. StraightEdgeNexus (Posts: 3282; Member since: 14 Feb 2014)


Analyst or gambler of statements

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 21:34

41. InspectorGadget80 (Posts: 6497; Member since: 26 Mar 2011)


He's jut another pathetic analyst ifanboy.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 12:52 1

7. androiphone20 (Posts: 1450; Member since: 10 Jul 2013)


I can't say how far true this is but I can only say that this guy totally forgot to realise Apple's position right now. They just don't have the luxury to sit out innovations after six friggin years, Silicon Valley has changed. The new guard is heading for sexting apps not the old guard companies. Apple is one of those companies that have kept their cool to reach out to the new guard by out-innovating the competition. Innovate or die!

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 15:12 2

20. VZWuser76 (Posts: 1436; Member since: 04 Mar 2010)


All what you say is true, but the thing is, Apple does things on their timetable, not someone else's. They put it out when they want to, figuring loyal customers will wait. They were over a year behind others releasing an LTE compatible phone, but at that time they had also just brought the iPhone to other carriers, so that along with the relatively small LTE coverage bought them some time. But if they continue in that way of thinking that the market will wait for them, eventually it'll bite them. The same thing happened with BB. They assumed their user base would remain loyal and wait for them to catch up. While Apple is a dominant player, you only have to look at BB, Palm, and Nokia to see how quickly you can go from dominance to obscurity. Seven years after the iPhone and five after Android came onto the scene, Palm is gone, BB is on the brink, and Nokia is running at the bottom, relative to where they were before. Like they say, those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

And this is not to say I want Apple to fail. Competition breeds innovation and keeps stagnation at bay. But there are many on these comments sections saying how company X will never fall, and it's arrogance like that that ensures they will.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 13:39 6

11. darkkjedii (Posts: 11395; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


I already own the iWatch. Cook brought me one over last night, while I was feeing my pet blue whale. It's got a 12 in screen, 128,000,000 gigs of ram, and 469,000,000 ppi. 4 year battery life too. Then I woke up

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 14:40 3

17. AfterShock (Posts: 2803; Member since: 02 Nov 2012)


I was going to ask where you bought your plankton at... Or if Capt Cook had brought some over.

+10 humor.

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 19:35

31. darkkjedii (Posts: 11395; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Lmao good one. +1 back atcha

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 15:13 2

21. VZWuser76 (Posts: 1436; Member since: 04 Mar 2010)


What? No bread maker? Sorry, can't even consider it now. ;)

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 16:28 3

26. Napalm_3nema (Posts: 946; Member since: 14 Jun 2013)


That's for the "S" model...

"We're very excited to build upon the success and groundbreaking technology of the original iWatch, which is why we are introducing...the iWatch 1S. Everything you love about the original, with even more innovation. We've added a revolutionary bread maker to iWatch, which even does pumpernickel. On top of that, iWatch is an ASIC, and it mines SHA256 cryptocurrency at 25GH/s."

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 19:00

30. PBXtech (Posts: 980; Member since: 21 Oct 2013)


Does it have the wifi's?

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 21:31

34. Napalm_3nema (Posts: 946; Member since: 14 Jun 2013)


What use do you have for a WiFi bread maker?

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 19:39

33. darkkjedii (Posts: 11395; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


Now that is funny, and you actually sound like Schiller and the gang would. Apple loves to use the word "we". Good one bro +1

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 19:36

32. darkkjedii (Posts: 11395; Member since: 05 Feb 2011)


It's got an app for the bread maker lol. +1

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 15:43

24. howStuffWorks (Posts: 3; Member since: 22 Mar 2014)


Come on guys,Wake up,Don't you know about iPod Nano 6th Generation?Considering That,I Think Apple Inc. Was The First Company To Make Smart-watches!
Just Google(iPod Nano 6th generation Watch)Then You'll Find out...

posted on 22 Mar 2014, 17:25

28. Scott93274 (Posts: 1020; Member since: 06 Aug 2013)


I'm sorry, but that is anything but a smart watch. It's simply an mp3 player with watch, pedometer, and radio. It will never be more than that. It will never notify you about incoming calls, texts, weather, directions, voice activation, wirelessly connect to a network, work as a compass, you get my drift.

That being said, I actually own that model iPod, and do have a really nice wrist band that I attach it to. I love it very much, but it is not a smart device, it will never be more than what it already is, a very good mp3 player.

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 09:34

36. howStuffWorks (Posts: 3; Member since: 22 Mar 2014)


That Was For 2010,We're in 2014 Now,There Must be Something more Advanced and different,We can Say iWatch is Somehow Like The iPod Nano 6th generation,Something Like the iPod,But More Advanced And Capable Of Doing More..

posted on 23 Mar 2014, 10:50

37. Scott93274 (Posts: 1020; Member since: 06 Aug 2013)


But your statement said that Apple made the first smart watch. That is incorrect, I already listed the reasons in my previous post. Yes, you could use that iPod as a watch, but it's main function was to play music. What makes a smart phone a smart phone is the ability to develop software for it that adds additional functions to the device, and to provide real world information to the user by connecting to a network (Weather, traffic, news, emails, sports stats, stocks). the iPod you named did not do any of this. It just played music and told the user the time and how many steps they've taken.

posted on 24 Mar 2014, 02:51

42. howStuffWorks (Posts: 3; Member since: 22 Mar 2014)


Yeah,Maybeh You're Right,Because I Haven't Worked With One Yet,And You Said That You own This Model...

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