It would be hardly surprising if the sales of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max go down this year, especially considering how successful the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max were last year. On a first glance, that’s only natural for new models with barely noticeable design changes, a muted new color, and a $100 higher price tag.
I don't believe these are the main reason for the lower demand, though. In fact, I am ready to bet that premium iPhones will record another quarter of excellent sales once the iPhone Duo finally comes out.
iPhone 18 Pro sales going down is not a surprise
The iPhone 18 Pro Max isn't exactly a radical change from last year. | Image by PhoneArena
This development shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been following the smartphone market in recent months. Back in August, research firm IDC predicted that the global smartphone shipments will drop 16.7% in 2026 compared to last year due to the memory shortage and higher prices. However, the average selling price of a smartphone is expected to grow 27.6% and reach $581.
There are two important details in the IDC report. One is that shipments of iOS devices are expected to go down by only 1.3%, helping Apple to reach a record-high 23.6% market share. The other is that foldables will be the only category to grow, with the 2026 forecast is for 12.6% increase to 22.9 million units, followed by 18% growth in 2027, to about 27 million units. Apple is expected to have 31% of the foldable shipments this year, and 40% next year.
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Apple is projected to dominate the foldable market next year. | Image by IDC
With these numbers in mind, the underwhelming demand for the iPhone 18 Pro makes much more sense. After all, the people who want the fanciest, most expensive, and most exciting iPhone won’t buy the repeat of last year’s Pro. No, they’ll just wait a few weeks and opt for the first truly different iPhone ever, which is the iPhone Duo.
Do you plan to buy an iPhone this year?
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Many potential iPhone 18 Pro buyers actually want an iPhone Duo
iPhone 18 Pro Max | Image by PhoneArena
As much as the increasing smartphone prices are ravaging the overall smartphone market, they’re unlikely to affect the people who buy Pro iPhones all that much. Getting a $100 price increase on a $1,100 device is certainly not as shocking as on a $500 device.
Going even further, there are more than enough people who would buy the most expensive smartphone available, regardless of what the price is. Many of these people are already buying Apple phones, so they’re very likely to opt for the iPhone Duo this year.
Then there are the tech enthusiasts who are not necessarily buying the fanciest phone, but are interested in innovative products. The iPhone 18 Pro is an antithesis of innovation, despite its impressive chipset, while the iPhone Duo is chockfull of new ideas, especially in the software. For the enthusiast crowd, this is enough of a motivation to spend extra and get access to the most exciting iPhone release in at least a decade.
Apple sales will be alright
It’s tempting to say that the iPhone 18 Pro is a failure, but I think this is too much of a stretch. The Pros won’t reach last year’s heights, but Apple won’t mind it once the iPhone Duo launches.
I’ll be shocked if the first foldable iPhone is anything less than a glowing success, which will compensate the slight decline in the sales of the slab models. That’s why I bet that Apple will report excellent financial results once again, which is the company’s main goal after all.
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Ilia, a tech journalist at PhoneArena, has been covering the mobile industry since 2011, with experience at outlets like Forbes Bulgaria. Passionate about smartphones, tablets, and consumer tech, he blends deep industry knowledge with a personal fascination that began with his first Nokia and Sony Ericsson devices. Originally from Bulgaria and now based in Lima, Peru, Ilia balances his tech obsessions with walking his dog, training at the gym, and slowly mastering Spanish.
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