The smartphone market might get a bit rougher in 2026. Memory shortages and rising component costs are already starting to bite, mainly because chipmakers are putting more resources into AI data centers instead of phones.
It’s a bit unsettling, right? But judging by our poll, it looks like a lot of you are already ahead of the curve.
More than 85% of you won’t need a new phone anytime soon
According to our recent poll, most people won’t feel the impact of rising prices, at least for now. Why? Because (at the time of the writing of this article) over 41% of voters already got a new phone before the hikes hit, and nearly 44% say they don’t need an upgrade anytime soon.
Did you manage to get a new phone in time?
Just in time! Whew!
41.38%
I'm trying very hard to
10.82%
No, I don't need a new phone
43.88%
No, though I tried
3.91%
That leaves about 11% trying to buy a new phone before prices climb. And honestly, I think they should be fine – we don’t expect sudden, dramatic jumps. The Galaxy S26 series in the US will likely stay around the same price as the S25 series, so Galaxy fans still have time to upgrade.
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Most of you are covered for now. | Screenshot by PhoneArena
The iPhone 17 is also still fresh on the market and hasn’t seen a price hike, so upgrading before the iPhone 18 launches next year is still doable. Apple might raise prices with the next generation, but probably subtly, not in a huge jump. Big hikes usually backfire anyway – users hesitate to buy, and sales could dip, which no company wants, especially when giants like Apple and Samsung are riding growth streaks.
So yeah, it’s reassuring to see most of you already covered. But if you haven’t bought a new phone yet and are due for an upgrade, there is no need to panic.
You still have time. Plus, let’s not forget that in the US, most people buy phones through carriers. And the big three – T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T – are battling harder than ever to win or keep your business. That means deals on phones and plans are still coming your way.
How much might prices actually go up?
Still, let's get into some numbers. Most major research firms, like IDC and Counterpoint, have already revised their 2026 forecasts upward, and the message is clear: smartphone prices are heading higher. On average, we are looking at a 6% to 8% increase in the global average selling price.
But the hike won’t hit all phones the same way. Surprisingly, budget phones could end up taking the biggest relative hit. With tight margins, brands like Xiaomi or Motorola often have no choice but to pass every extra cost onto buyers, meaning these phones could jump anywhere from 10% to 20% in price. That’s a big deal if you’re usually buying on a budget.
Mid-range and sub-flagship phones aren’t immune either. To maintain the features and specs users expect, prices in this segment could rise roughly 7% to 12%. That’s not negligible, but still manageable for most people who aren’t buying the cheapest models.
Flagship phones, meanwhile, are likely to see more predictable increases – probably around $50 to $100. That could push the base iPhone 18 close to $850–$900, and the same for the base Galaxy S27. Of course, these are only estimates for now, and the exact numbers will depend on how Apple, Samsung, and other big brands handle rising component costs and market demand.
So, price hikes are coming, and they’ll touch every segment of the market differently. Budget buyers might feel the pinch the most, mid-range users will see steady increases, and flagship fans can expect moderate bumps.
How big and how fast will the hikes happen? That’s still uncertain, but I think being aware now gives you a better chance to plan your next upgrade without getting caught off guard.
Tsveta, a passionate technology enthusiast and accomplished playwright, combines her love for mobile technologies and writing to explore and reveal the transformative power of tech. From being an early follower of PhoneArena to relying exclusively on her smartphone for photography, she embraces the immense capabilities of compact devices in our daily lives. With a Journalism degree and an explorative spirit, Tsveta not only provides expert insights into the world of gadgets and smartphones but also shares a unique perspective shaped by her diverse interests in travel, culture, and visual storytelling.
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