Despite its 'Crackgate' scandal, Apple's iPhone Duo is likely to continue selling (relatively) well
Apple's divisive first foldable is predicted to hit 5 million unit shipments by the end of 2026 and then score nearly 30 percent market share for its maker in 2027.
Surprisingly or not, the impact is expected to be minimal by at least one major market research firm, which continues to predict a very robust sales total for the first-gen iOS-powered Galaxy Z Fold alternative through the end of 2026, naturally followed by an even higher tally and more impressive 2027 foldable market share... that's however not quite as strong as previously forecasted by other industry analysts.
Apple is expected to go from 0 to nearly 25 percent foldable market share this year. | Image by TrendForce
With those numbers in mind, the iPhone Duo's 5 million unit shipment forecast for this year might not sound awe-inspiring. But the foldable segment is still small enough for that figure to equate to an estimated 25 percent of all 2026 global sales, which would undoubtedly be a remarkably large slice of the pie for a category newcomer with only a few months of (limited) availability under its belt.
Yes, Apple is projected to essentially tie segment veteran Huawei in second place among this year's top foldable vendors, with Samsung not exactly looking like a very dominant leader either at an estimated 35.1 percent market share.
Apple could have a good but not great 2027 in the foldable landscape
Although the iPhone Duo's reliability concerns are evidently not expected to impact the product's mainstream appeal to a very large degree in the short run, something might keep Apple's rookie foldable effort from achieving its full long-term potential.
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The iPhone Duo may not prove quite as popular next year as initially predicted. | Image by PhoneArena
That's because the company is predicted to hold a 29.8 percent foldable market share in 2027, which sounds like a pretty solid but definitely not mind-blowing result following this year's estimated 25 percent slice of the pie.
Keep in mind that we're comparing a couple of months of sales with a full year of availability here, and said availability is also likely to improve in 2027 both in online and offline channels. That would make this forecasted 4.8 percent year-on-year market share progress totally unimpressive, leaving Samsung in first place and of course demoting Huawei to a clear final spot on the vendors' podium.
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While this year's updated 5 million iPhone Duo shipment prediction largely coincides with the numbers bandied about in several older reports, Apple was previously forecasted to jump to the top of the global foldable category in 2027 with 41 percent share by Smart Analytics Global (SAG). Compared to that, today's TrendForce estimation looks pretty awful for the Cupertino-based tech giant... and a little hard to explain as far as I'm concerned.
The foldable market as a whole could once again fall short of expectations
You probably don't remember this now, but Counterpoint Research predicted early last month that global foldable shipments would improve in 2026 by a solid 24 percent from 2025's total before gaining another 37 percent in 2027 compared to this year.
This optimistic foldable market forecast is apparently unlikely to prove accurate. | Image by Counterpoint Research
TrendForce analysts, however, are way more pessimistic today, only anticipating a 0.5 percent progress for the market segment at the end of 2026 compared to 2025. Unfortunately, foldable sales have regularly underperformed over the last half a decade or so, and because the iPhone Duo is still expected to get off to a flying start at the global box-office, I'm left assuming everyone else from Samsung to Huawei, Motorola, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor will fall short of previous predictions in 2026... if this new forecast proves accurate.
Curiously enough, TrendForce isn't ready to make an overall product category prediction for 2027, but something tells me worldwide sales won't exactly thrive if Apple is likely to sit at under 30 percent share after all.
Here are more articles about the iPhone Duo and the foldable market:
Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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