Top Apple analyst raises estimate of iPhone shipments following better than expected pre-orders

Top Apple analyst raises estimate of iPhone shipments following better than expected pre-orders
Reliable TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is weighing in on the first three days of pre-orders for the 2019 Apple iPhone models. According to 9to5Mac, Kuo says that interest in the more affordable iPhone 11 is higher than expected because of a couple of reasons he cited in a new report. One reason is obvious; by pricing the base model $50 cheaper than the lowest-priced version of last year's iPhone XR, Apple is making the 64GB version of the iPhone 11 seem like a bargain at $699. In addition, he points to the new color options that are available this year for the 2019 iPhones and sees higher demand for three specific models.

Those three models include the iPhone 11 in Green and Purple and the iPhone 11 Pro/Pro Max in Midnight Green. Kuo notes that Apple has been experiencing difficulties producing the latter variant because of issues with the phone's glass panel. As a result, there could be shortages of this particular color option. The analyst also sees differences in the demand for the new phones in Apple's top two markets. In China, he predicts that the iPhone 11 will be the big seller while in the states the iPhone 11 Pro will be the model of choice.

Kuo sees the iPhone 11's base price as irresistible to iPhone 6, iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 owners


Earlier forecasts by Kuo called for Apple to ship 65 million to 70 million units of the new handsets this year, but he has bumped that a bit higher. The new estimate calls for 70 million to 75 million units to be delivered in 2019. Kuo says that Apple's aggressive pricing of the iPhone 11 makes it irresistible to consumers still using an iPhone 6, iPhone 6s and iPhone 7 owners. While models from the iPhone 6s and up are getting the iOS 13 update this year, it is likely that this will be the last hurrah for the iPhone 6s.

As we told you this morning, it would appear that those pre-ordering the iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max models this weekend have shunned the Gold version of these phones. While new orders for most configurations were listed as shipping in 2 to 3 weeks, several versions in Gold were still listed with a September 20th arrival date.


The changes that Apple made to its new iPhones centered on the cameras, battery life, and water resistance. The iPhone 11 has two cameras on the back including a 12MP Wide or Primary and a 12MP Ultra-wide. The iPhone Pro has three cameras on the back including the 12MP Wide, the 12MP Ultra-wide and a telephoto lens carrying a 2x optical zoom. Both versions now have a Night mode for taking viewable pictures in low-light conditions, and can record slofies; these are selfies recorded in slo-mo. The iPhone 11 has one additional hour of battery life compared to the iPhone XR; the latter already had the longest battery life of any iPhone ever made. The iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max have 4 and 5 more hours of battery life respectively than the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max.

Apple has enhanced the new phones' protection from water. The iPhone 11 can be submerged to a depth of 6 and a half feet for as long as 30 minutes while the iPhone 11 Pro models can be submerged to a depth slightly over 13 feet for the same time period. Of course, the warranty still doesn't cover water damage so you take your device into the pool at your own risk.

Pre-orders for the new iPhone models continue through this Thursday, September 19th. The next day, the pre-paid orders will start arriving and the devices will start to appear on store shelves.

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28 Comments

1. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2253; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

As expected...just about every PhoneArena Blogger would love to see Apple fail. The funny thing is that Apple is future proof for the next 3 years, even if they don’t release a foldable phone. Apple has tapped into the customer base because of their ecosystem. What this means is that Apple’s Arcade and Apple TV+ serves as a huge hit for the next 2-3 years. With potentially 100-200 million customers within the next years...this could end up being their second highest revenue generator and capture iTunes status. Pretty crazy...

4. IT-Engineer

Posts: 566; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Do you get paid to stay stupid stuff?

10. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2451; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

Apple is not future proof for the next 3 years. I’m not sure where you are getting that information. They have to definitely come out swinging in 2020 if they are to keep their user base or expand it. Right now there are more people leaving iOS than retaining it. In June, there were 18% of iPhone users switching to Android while only 7% of Android users switching to iPhone. The iPhone 11 is a great phone that may stop the bleeding, so to say. However, if Apple doesn’t come up with something really innovative next year then it doesn’t matter what services they offer, people won’t buy their hardware. They may buy an Apple TV just to use the arcade and tv subscription but that’ll be it.

14. midan

Posts: 3013; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"Right now there are more people leaving iOS than retaining it. In June, there were 18% of iPhone users switching to Android while only 7% of Android users switching to iPhone." This is false, Apple userbase is growing, not getting smaller. Also your data is completely wrong. it was only in US and one survey after S10 launch, of course it would make survey lean towards S10 when it was just released. "BankMyCell collects its data from its customers, so the numbers don't represent overall sales, which also include carrier stores and Apple itself. "

15. IT-Engineer

Posts: 566; Member since: Feb 26, 2015

Well it does, here in Europe for example, Apple has lost a number of their user base, and companies are also switching. Our company doesn't offer anymore iPhones, only S10 and note 10. Many companies are doing the same.

26. mackan84

Posts: 555; Member since: Feb 13, 2014

”In June, there were 18% of iPhone users switching to Android while only 7% of Android users switching to iPhone.” So 18% of 1b users are switching from iOS. And 7% of 10b+ users are switching from android? Sounds like iOS is doing fine then?

20. Mike88

Posts: 437; Member since: Mar 05, 2019

iPhone 11 gained features over iPhone XR ( extra camera, extra GB RAM etc)) but the price decreased while 11 pro actually lost its advantage over 11 which XS had over XR including extra RAM and 3D Touch but price remained the same. Is apple trying to betray the rich this time? They know there’s a class of people who won’t buy the cheaper iPhone so let’s try to steal from them?? Apple is fake Robin Hood lol it’ll give an opportunity to the competition to grab some premium customers from apple next year with launch of next gen products. Let’s see if someone can grab the opportunity by setting a more premium brand image which apple couldn’t this time in their love for Asian markets.

2. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2253; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

FEI (For Everyone’s Info) - Antutu on 11 Pro Max hit 462k+. ROGII = 396k. Which is the true gaming phone now?

3. OneLove123

Posts: 1189; Member since: Aug 28, 2018

Redmagic 3s just hit over 500k.

6. gadgetpower

Posts: 283; Member since: Aug 23, 2019

462k is in V7, maybe you’re talking version 8.

8. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2451; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

There should be two notes to this: 1. We don’t know whether the score for the ROG phone was based on normal mode, X mode, or 60 hz mode. From my research, there is a difference in scores depending on which mode you select. 2. Naturally Apple which releases its phones in the second half of the year are going to beat a CPU from the first half. The 855+ is just a higher clock version. So really it would be newsworthy if it DIDNT beat it. When the 865 comes out, it’ll beat the A13 in some benchmarks and on and on the cycle will continue.

13. worldpeace

Posts: 3135; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

Apple processor top Antutu for 4 months. Snapdragon top Antutu for 8 months.. Repeat that every year..

27. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2451; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

You could be technically right but there is a huge caveat you are missing there. Yes, Snapdragon may dominate Antutu because they are benchmarking prototype devices. However, the devices that CARRY the actual processor are released in March which would mean 6 months of being the top CPU before Apple releases their iPhone.

16. Rostvast

Posts: 1; Member since: Sep 16, 2019

I fear SD 865 wont even beat A12 bionic. Check anandtech review on A12, the performance is night and day. I hope SD and exynos will step up their game in 2020 but i fear it wont happen.

11. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1438; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

Still not the iPhone

12. worldpeace

Posts: 3135; Member since: Apr 15, 2016

You playing with Antutu score? With all those power did 11ProMax could hit 120FPS IN GAMING? 1ms input response time? what about the best FF stereo speaker? using 3.5mm jack while charging? Massive battery for all-day gaming? Ask your own question... Which is the true gaming phone now? Lol...

23. ShadowSnypa786

Posts: 593; Member since: Jan 06, 2017

Well if you comparing them 2 phones only Asus has the slightly bigger display, they are both 120hz but Asus has 240hz touch sensing, the Asus has more Ram and Storage, The Asus has audio jack, the Asus also has some really good stereo speakers from what I have seen have to see if Apple can top that, the Asus also has 6000mah battery. On top of that the ROG II has all of coolers and the twinview dock So overall I say the Asus Rog Phone II definetly

5. midan

Posts: 3013; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Not surprised at all, like i said earlier the new camera system will be big sales driver. It's biggest upgrade for a camera in many years. It's not just small update for camera quality it gives you option to take photos which weren't possible before with iPhone. So the difference what you can shoot is very easy to sell for potential customers.

7. gadgetpower

Posts: 283; Member since: Aug 23, 2019

I’m so excited with Max Pro. For budget conscious, especially those people who were holding 6, 6s, and 7, theres a budget phone for you, iphone 11 pro. The cameras on Max Pro is amazing because they all work to get the best shot and it’s accompanied by the most powerful chip A13. When the new ipad pro release this October with A13s, maybe they would be 99.9% faster than PCs.

9. whatev

Posts: 2332; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

Here we go again with “analysts rumors: chapter 2019” Later today: “analysts predict iPhone 11 weak sales for holiday season” Next week: “iPhone 11 breaks sales records according to analysts” ...

17. mootu

Posts: 1530; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

Kuo has said something like this every year for the last 3 years. Apple has a good xmas season like always then he has to "revise" his predictions as sales slump for the rest of the year. It's almost as guaranteed as the sun coming up in the morning.

18. darkkjedii

Posts: 31313; Member since: Feb 05, 2011

iOS 13 is actually a huge update over iOS 12, and yes, some of it is Note inspired. I like what apple has done though. Very nice update. https://youtu.be/vDiQsI18Zk4

19. strawberry

Posts: 115; Member since: Feb 20, 2019

good for Apple. why can’t samsung sheep and android fanboys be happy for Apple? whoever does well, I am happy for them be it Apple or Huawei

22. Vancetastic

Posts: 1591; Member since: May 17, 2017

Yay, super rich company keeps making more and more money! That's all I need to know!!!! More profits!!!!!! More money!!!! Is that better?

21. Vancetastic

Posts: 1591; Member since: May 17, 2017

Predictable story, even more predictable comments.

25. TBomb

Posts: 1572; Member since: Dec 28, 2012

"...Apple is making the 64GB version of the iPhone 11 seem like a bargain at $699" So it still isn't a bargain? :P Jokes aside, Analysts: The weather-people of tech sales. Step 1: Plug some data into a model and report what you see. Step 2: Go a few weeks, the change the data you put in and report what you see. Step 3: Get paid. Meanwhile, the people with real insight live in the comments section. Have you seen the facts people post here?!?! It's amazing how analysts get it wrong :P

28. midan

Posts: 3013; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"It looks like the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro are off to a great start in China. On JD.com, the second-largest e-commerce website in China, more than 1 million units of iPhone 11 have been reserved since the pre-orders went live. Compared to previous years, this was a 480% surge in iPhone orders. The Midnight Green iPhone 11 Pro was the most popular followed by the iPhone 11 in black and purple colors. Despite its high price tag, the iPhone 11 Pro ran out of stock within five minutes."

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