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Tablets to outsell notebooks by 2016 according to NPD

Posted: , by Scott H.

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Tablets to outsell notebooks by 2016 according to NPD
Tablet sales have been growing like gangbusters – in the U.S. tablets hit the 10% market penetration point faster than any other major technology adoption (including smartphones). Industry analysis company NPD Group says that rate of growth isn’t a fluke, they expect tablets to outpace notebook PCs for the foreseeable future, eclipsing notebook sales sometime in 2016.

This is why Apple, Google, and Microsoft are fighting (and litigating) so fiercely on this front – even though the iPad has largely dominated tablet sales to date, the vast majority of the market is currently up for grabs, but within half a decade market saturation could already be setting in, at least for tablets sales in developing countries. And it’s far harder to disrupt a saturated market than it is to take market share before the market matures.

NPD thinks that developing nations will be underrepresented for the next five years, which probably means that industry work to produce lower-cost hardware for those markets may be a few years away. Or perhaps if one of the main tablet platforms falls behind they will double down by trying to accelerate adoption in developing nations.

You can see how much is at stake – Android devices alone are expected to outnumber all Windows PCs by 2016, and if Apple continues to own the tablet field (or if Android can repeat the success it’s had with smartphones) then Microsoft won’t even control the majority of the computer market. That’s why Microsoft has been willing to make Windows 8/RT such a radical change from Windows 7, and why they are willing to risk upsetting OEMs by making their own tablet hardware – we are truly entering the post-PC era, and whoever controls the mobile phone and tablet markets in the next few years will get to reprise the role that Microsoft played during the 1990s and early 2000s.





source: NPD via TechCrunch

14 Comments
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posted on 03 Jul 2012, 12:02 2

1. snowgator (Posts: 3209; Member since: 19 Jan 2011)


Weren't they supposed to be outselling notebooks already? That is what was predicted in 2010-ish.

Yeah, notebooks are fairly overrated and this next generation of Tablets will outperform them. But, for cheapskates everywhere, they sure will cut prices on them there notebooks.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 12:59 3

4. downphoenix (Posts: 2317; Member since: 19 Jun 2010)


What? Tablets outperforming Notebooks? Do you even know what you're saying? All but the cheapest notebooks outperform every tablet on the market. You can buy a notebook that can run circles around the new ipad in terms of processing power for about the same price as the new ipad. Now granted, the new ipad will have a higher res screen, a graphics chipset with better capabilities than said notebook, but will have a smaller screen, less ram, less storage space, no keyboard, and less sophisticated apps.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 13:29 1

7. TylerGrunter (Posts: 905; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)


netbooks, not notebooks. The prediction (and was right) was that the tablets would outsell netbooks last year.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 12:08

2. itiswhatitis (Posts: 422; Member since: 23 Jan 2012)


Not suprised at all!!!

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 12:40 1

3. Joshing4fun (Posts: 1047; Member since: 13 Aug 2010)


Really? Ha I predict 2013. iPad keeps dominating and now windows is coming? It should only be a matter of a year before we all forget what a notebook is.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 13:03 1

5. appleDOESNT.com (Posts: 432; Member since: 19 Nov 2011)


Don't see it. Tabs are a fad, everyone wants to make a keyboard attachment, a case to protect the screen.. voila, ultrabook with touchscreen. Keyboard, screen protector, more power, more flexibility once we get dual boot win 8 and android version.

I see convertible ultrabooks with touch winning this battle in the end, tabs are too small and too limiting to be taken seriously at $500-$800, ultrabooks will easily be at the price soon enough IMO

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 13:33

8. TylerGrunter (Posts: 905; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)


You can consider a convertible ultrabook a tablet with and extra keyboard.
The line to trace is going to be really fine.
CPU in the screen part = tablet
CPU on the keyboard = ultrabook with touchscreen
Just my definition

And I think tablets will win, I don´t see the advantage of having the CPU and chips in the keyboard side when you can detach it and have a lighter tablet.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 13:46

9. appleDOESNT.com (Posts: 432; Member since: 19 Nov 2011)


and you can consider a tablet with a case and a keyboard attachment a poor mans ultrabook. I don't see how buying a case to protect the screen, making your tablet bigger and a keyboard attachment can possibly be better than the Lenovo Yoga Flip -http://tinyurl.com/896dnnc

Also, 10" is fine for a news reader but I prefer something bigger, 12-14 inch ultrabooks with a innovative idea behind the Yoga Flip, if priced similarly and dual boot with Windows and Android, beats the competition for value, innovation, usefulness IMO

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 14:00

10. TylerGrunter (Posts: 905; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)


Well, no one has said that tablets will be only 10" in the future. You´ll have them in different sizes, it´s just that fro the time being they are a bit too heavy.
And for how to imagine something better as that you don´t need much: just think about a Lonovo Yoga that could actually detach the keyboard when needed to have a tablet and have that keyboard when you need to protect the screen or to write (no need for a case then).
As said: there will be really fine line between the two concepts.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 14:11

11. appleDOESNT.com (Posts: 432; Member since: 19 Nov 2011)


well you seem to like the detachable keyboard part. I feel a detachable keyboard and a case to protect the screen, which most tab users desire = Lenovo Yoga flip or many of the other convertible ultrabooks coming in the future with touch. I don't see how the detachable keyboard is useful and a case when you combine them and you have the ultrabook already mentioned, no case or detachable keyboard needed. Yes, concepts are similar BUT in my opinion, convertible ultrabooks take the best of tabs and notebooks and combine them, and is why I say it is the future

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 14:35

13. TylerGrunter (Posts: 905; Member since: 16 Feb 2012)


The advantage I see on detachable keyboards over convertible ultrabooks is the weigth. Ultrabooks are far too heavy nowadays (more than 1Kg) to be used in tablet mode. If you detach the keyboard you can reduce it by half, having an usable an light tablet.
The Lenovo Yoga Flip weigths 1.5 Kg, and that´s too much to be used as a mobile device (meaning no table to support it, only your arms).
On the other side I don´t see any disadvantage to the concept of the detachable keyboard as it gets the best of the two worlds: light when in tablet mode and with stable functional keyobard when that is what is needed.
It´s just my opinion, your take can be as good a mine expecially if ultrabooks start reducing weight in the near future.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 14:58

14. appleDOESNT.com (Posts: 432; Member since: 19 Nov 2011)


I see your point on weight but I would gladly give up a little weight for a dual boot win 8/Android hybrid (not the yoga flip, I wish tho) Whoever comes up with a nice dual boot first, thin and light, around 13 inches and a convertible gets my bucks :)

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 13:18

6. marchels14 (unregistered)


Make a fast , light, cheap tablet that is kills most computers out there , squeeze everything that you got in a computer to tablet and magic has been done .notebooks will be thing of the past.

posted on 03 Jul 2012, 14:17

12. MelvinPainter (Posts: 51; Member since: 05 Apr 2012)


Tablets will be just as popular as the netbook.

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