No one with a brain expects Musk's recent SpaceX forecast to come true

Now that SpaceX is a public company, it has to report its earnings to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) three times a year via Form 10-Q. After the third quarterly report, the company will file its annual report, also known as Form 10-K.SpaceX was founded by Elon Musk in 2002 and is known as a firm that launches rockets and satellites into space. Also important for PhoneArena readers to know, SpaceX operates the Starlink satellite constellation that delivers broadband internet service from low Earth orbit.

SpaceX recently acquired some low-band 800 MHz spectrum

Musk has also started putting into place plans to make SpaceX a terrestrial cellular provider competing with US carriers like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile. For example, SpaceX recently entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Grain Management's holdings of up to 14 MHz of 800 MHz low-band spectrum for approximately $8 billion.

The airwaves were used by Sprint and were transferred to T-Mobile with the latter's $26 billion purchase of Sprint. Dish Network had an opportunity to buy the spectrum from T-Mobile, but with its financial difficulties, the airwaves were sold to Grain Management and will soon belong to SpaceX.

Low-band spectrum is known for its ability to travel long distances while penetrating buildings and trees. That makes this spectrum perfect for nationwide 5G service even though it is not as fast as mid-band or mmWave airwaves. There has even been talk about SpaceX purchasing one of the Big 3 US carriers. The name that has come up most often is Verizon although such a deal does not seem likely at this point. Another name popping up yesterday as a potential buy for SpaceX was Boost Mobile.

Musk's stunning SpaceX forecast is not impressing investors

Not everyone is rushing to buy SpaceX shares based on Musk's forecast, even though much of its business, such as its launch operations, global broadband business, and defense contracts, is in high-growth areas.

SpaceX went public in June at $135 and is currently trading at $139.51, up $3.14. That is a 3.4% gain since the IPO, not exactly positioning the stock as a high-flyer. That said, SpaceX has traded between $104.83 and $225.64 since it went public.

Did SpaceX come close to a $1 trillion revenue run rate last quarter?

The problem is that if someone as close to SpaceX as Musk is can only give such a wide range as an estimate, it indicates a high degree of uncertainty on Musk's part. It also seems as though Musk was just giving a range that included the trillion dollars to point out that such a feat is possible. But looking at the last earnings release, covering the third quarter of 2026, SpaceX reported $14.6 billion in revenue, which works out to an annual run rate of $58 billion. That is pretty far from $1 trillion.

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