Weighted Average Selling Price of iPhone in the U.S. is in a downtrend

A disturbing trend, at least disturbing in Apple's eyes, has been taking place with iPhone pricing. Over the last two quarters, the Weighted Average Retail Price (US-WARP) of iPhone units sold in the U.S. has declined according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP). For the quarter that ended in September 2023, US-WARP was $918 down from the $948 US-WARP for the quarter that ended in June 2023. The high of $988 was achieved during the quarter that ended in March 2023.

A year ago, the US-WARP was $957 for the iPhone which means that the trend toward lower iPhone pricing in the states has not only been happening for two consecutive quarters (the short-term trend) but has also occurred on a year-over-year basis (the longer-term trend). The "Weighted Average Retail Price" looks at the mix of iPhone models sold in the U.S. The "Weighted Average" price is based on several factors including which models are selling (are the Pro models outselling the non-Pro models? What storage sizes are consumers willing to pay up for?)

Since the end of the June 2021 quarter, the iPhone has not had two consecutive declines in US-WARP until now. The September 2021 quarter showed a small decline in US-WARP from $869 to $865. The next quarter showed a huge increase in the iPhone's U.S. Weighted Average Retail Price to $949. Following a dip to $882 in US-WARP for the iPhone during the March 2022 quarter, the iPhone had four consecutive rising quarters of US-WARP to, as previously noted, reach a peak of $988. Since that peak, Apple has had two declines in US-WARP to the current $918. 

The current trend seems like a surprise since the iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Pro, the two priciest current iPhone models, made up 15% of total iPhone sales during the September quarter. That is a small decline from the 17% of iPhone sales during the September 2022 quarter that came from the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro. And sales of older models like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 have been pretty steady during the September 2023 quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier.

The data for the December quarter should be very interesting since it is the holiday quarter after all. Either Apple will finally be able to end the current downtrend in US-WARP or the company will be looking at a continuing concerning trend of lower weighted retail prices for the most important product in its lineup.