Apple might secure number one spot on the market in Q4 2022, leave Samsung second

Analyst company TrendForce expects that Apple will overcome Samsung and have the largest market share in Q4 2022. Cupertino is set to capture a 24.6% of the phone market, a significant uptick of 7% in comparison with Q3 2022 when it shipped nearly 51 million iPhones, and thus overtake Samsung's projected 20.2% market share in Q4 '22. Samsung was the market leader in Q3 2022 with 22.2% of the market, but this unfortunate decline is set to push it to the second spot, for now. 

Apple is enjoying strong demand for its latest iPhones, which has shifted towards the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. Due to issues with Foxconn's Zhengzhou factory in China, supply for those models has been hampered a bit. Meanwhile, Samsung's non-foldable flagships are currently nearing the end of their life cycle and are about to get refreshed with the Galaxy S23 series in February 2023. 

Recently, reports revealed that Apple is also projected to become India's top phone exporter and overtake Samsung's local manufacturing effort. 

That said, the overall shape of the phone market in Q3 2022 is significantly worse when compared to the previous year. In Q3 2022, some 289 million units were shipped, an 11% decline in comparison with Q3 2021 and a 0.9% decline in comparison with Q2 2022. However, there's optimism as TrendForce anticipates 316 million sales in Q4 2022, a 9.3% YoY increase and possibly a sign that the market is on track to stabilize itself. 

In such a hostile environment, little to no room for growth is available for the rest of the entrants in TrendForce's Top 5 on the phone market—Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, which are situated at the third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, with all of their sub-brands included in the mix. In fact, all of those are expected to see their respective market shares decline at the expense of Apple gaining ground. 

TrendForce doesn't anticipate than neither Xiaomi, Oppo, or Vivo will continue to face some serious issues in the near future due to the highly-saturated and very aggressive Chinese phone market, as well as the quite negative effects on smartphone demand due to the Zero-COVID policy enforced by the Chinese Communist Party. The sluggish temp of India's economic growth is also singled out as a significant source of issues for China's top smartphone brands.