Apple's iPhone XR gets another analyst downgrade, from 100 to 70 million shipments

Apple's iPhone XR gets another analyst downgrade, from 100 to 70 million shipments
Just like they did with the iPhone X last year, analysts appear to have overestimated iPhone XR demand initially. Of course, Apple may have had somewhat unrealistic expectations this time around as well, reportedly leading to two consecutive production downgrades already.

Talking actual numbers, Ming-Chi Kuo now predicts a grand total of 70 million iPhone XR units will be shipped worldwide during the handset’s first 12 months on the market. That might still sound like a lot, but it’s also a whopping 30 million units less than the reputable number cruncher’s previous forecast.

There are several reasons why Kuo is lowering his prognosis so drastically, as reported by MacRumors, including a price point deemed excessive by many potential buyers, a not-very-impressive design considering said price point, “negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war in the Chinese market”, and strong competition from state-of-the-art Android rivals like the Huawei Mate 20 family.

Then again, this same industry pundit expressed a starkly contrasting optimism just last month, also describing iPhone XR pre-orders as satisfactory, at higher figures than the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus combined.

Bottom line, these things are in a constant state of flux, and with Black Friday deals and the holiday shopping season right around the corner, they could go back and forth for a few more months.

If Kuo’s current shipment estimations do prove entirely accurate, which is almost never the case, the Q4 2018 tally of 30 to 35 million units should drop to 20-25 million in Q1 2019, followed by 10-15mn units for next year’s second calendar quarter.

Thanks to higher-than-anticipated iPhone XS, XS Max, iPhone 8, and 8 Plus demand, Apple is still tipped to sell between 75 and 80 million handsets this holiday quarter, followed by only 47-52 million units in the January - March 2019 timeframe. Of course, these numbers are no longer relevant as far as the company is concerned.
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