Apple's iPhone XR gets another analyst downgrade, from 100 to 70 million shipments

Apple's iPhone XR gets another analyst downgrade, from 100 to 70 million shipments
Just like they did with the iPhone X last year, analysts appear to have overestimated iPhone XR demand initially. Of course, Apple may have had somewhat unrealistic expectations this time around as well, reportedly leading to two consecutive production downgrades already.

Talking actual numbers, Ming-Chi Kuo now predicts a grand total of 70 million iPhone XR units will be shipped worldwide during the handset’s first 12 months on the market. That might still sound like a lot, but it’s also a whopping 30 million units less than the reputable number cruncher’s previous forecast.

There are several reasons why Kuo is lowering his prognosis so drastically, as reported by MacRumors, including a price point deemed excessive by many potential buyers, a not-very-impressive design considering said price point, “negative impacts on consumer confidence from the trade war in the Chinese market”, and strong competition from state-of-the-art Android rivals like the Huawei Mate 20 family.

Then again, this same industry pundit expressed a starkly contrasting optimism just last month, also describing iPhone XR pre-orders as satisfactory, at higher figures than the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus combined.

Bottom line, these things are in a constant state of flux, and with Black Friday deals and the holiday shopping season right around the corner, they could go back and forth for a few more months.

If Kuo’s current shipment estimations do prove entirely accurate, which is almost never the case, the Q4 2018 tally of 30 to 35 million units should drop to 20-25 million in Q1 2019, followed by 10-15mn units for next year’s second calendar quarter.

Thanks to higher-than-anticipated iPhone XS, XS Max, iPhone 8, and 8 Plus demand, Apple is still tipped to sell between 75 and 80 million handsets this holiday quarter, followed by only 47-52 million units in the January - March 2019 timeframe. Of course, these numbers are no longer relevant as far as the company is concerned.

Related phones

iPhone XR
  • Display 6.1" 828 x 1792 pixels
  • Camera 12 MP / 7 MP front
  • Processor Apple A12 Bionic, Hexa-core, 2490 MHz
  • Storage 64 GB
  • Battery 2942 mAh(25h talk time)

FEATURED VIDEO

15 Comments

1. Malcolm.Merlyn

Posts: 160; Member since: Sep 28, 2014

This the best iPhone to buy right now.

2. mootu

Posts: 1519; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

Ok, we best all run down the Apple Store then.

9. whatev

Posts: 2265; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

You should, I got my XS, you’re not in

3. NateDiaz

Posts: 1088; Member since: Mar 03, 2018

Stop with this crap. Every year these analysts predict iPhones won't sell, every year Apple proves them wrong.

6. mootu

Posts: 1519; Member since: Mar 16, 2017

Nobody's saying they won't sell, they will sell well as they always do. Apples big problem is that iPhone sales are flat and have been for the last 4 years. So to keep investors happy Apple just bangs up the price and says f*** the customer they will keep buying no matter what. The thing is they are making a lot of customers unhappy with their nickel and dime antics and it's the customer which pays their wages. Just visit any Apple centric forum and their are lots of people complaing about quality going down while prices are rising fast. I have a lot of friends who are Apple users and most arn't happy with them at the moment and they will only take so much before they move on.

7. midan

Posts: 2882; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

"Apples big problem is that iPhone sales are flat " I don't see that as a big problem knowing how much they sell, selling that amount of most expensive phones in the market, you can't except endless growth. Their services business is growing very fast which just shows when they can't reach new highs with phone sales, they can still keep growing and growing their userbase and getting more money from their ecosystem. Let's not forget that Apple is only company with google from phone OEMs who can get money from their users years after when they bought the device. Eventually phone sales going to go down for everyone and then you have to do money with something else, many will struggle very badly.

10. perry1234

Posts: 646; Member since: Aug 14, 2012

Yes this actually makes a lot of sense. I think Google will eventually have to make Android a bit more restricted because at the end of the day , they too want revenue from the Play store. Currently, side-loading pirated apps is too easy on any Android device. Also, there are devs like Epic who just provide APK on their website to avoid paying Google any revenue (with iOS they had no other option). **I CONDEMN PIRACY OF ANY SORT**

12. CreeDiddy

Posts: 2188; Member since: Nov 04, 2011

Regardless if iPhone’s are flat, they still have no competition. Brand loyalty alone is something no Android vendor has.

4. Peaceboy

Posts: 640; Member since: Oct 11, 2018

Time to buy apple stocks.

5. midan

Posts: 2882; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Exactly, said same earlier

8. JMartin22

Posts: 2370; Member since: Apr 30, 2013

Even if that number were true, 70 million shipments (which count as sold profits for the manufacturer) is still a lot for a single unit of a device. Personally, the XR isn’t just watered down; it looks watered down with its slightly thicker bezels. I personally wouldn’t buy it. But there are people who are willing or have to; now that this design choice is the way of the future for people on the Apple platform. And paying $1000+ is out of the question for certain individuals

11. whatev

Posts: 2265; Member since: Oct 28, 2015

Here we go again with bored analysts making up this kind of news, I don’t know about the XR, but I’ve seen lots of Gold XS and XS Max on the streets, subway and many places, as well as other iPhone X or XS with the other colors, this could be projected to other cities and countries as well, but anyways this kind of news are typical this time of the year so Apple stocks soar when Apple releases the next quarter report, it’s the same cycle every year, trolls are heartbroken every year too, they still bite the trap

13. tokuzumi

Posts: 1900; Member since: Aug 27, 2009

We need to stop reporting what analysts say. It's just a prediction based on absolutely nothing. These tech analysts are the meteorologists of the tech world. Almost always wrong, but somehow their opinion means something.

15. Shott3r

Posts: 20; Member since: Nov 28, 2017

I've had more than 15 phones the last 5 years. I buy and try, full price, on both major platforms. I return if I don't like, or keep til the next one catches my eye and flip. I am literally the target customer for Apple's high-end phones. I've mostly been on iOS this last little while, but I did not think the X was worth $1000 last year. I got an 8 Plus, which admittedly was only about $200 cheaper. I also do not think the Xs is worth $1,000. My next phone is likely going to be the smaller Pixel 3, or the Galaxy S10. Once you get over the iMessage lock-in (you should be using Signal or Telegram or even WhatsApp anyway), you realize the platforms are mostly the same now, except iOS limits your hardware choices to a laughable extent. The Xr is a joke at $750. If people like me are not on board with upgrading, Apple needs to rethink its strategy, and hiding unit sales is only going to work so long. I'm not saying they're going to fail overnight or anything. But remember, Blackberry had >50% of the smartphone market as late as 2011, and everyone thought BBM had the same lock-in effect iMessage does.

* Some comments have been hidden, because they don't meet the discussions rules.

Latest Stories

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. You can order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers at https://www.parsintl.com/phonearena or use the Reprints & Permissions tool that appears at the bottom of each web page. Visit https://www.parsintl.com/ for samples and additional information.