Apple's 2027 iPhone 18 launch could hand Samsung a (narrow) 2026 global smartphone victory
The war for global smartphone market supremacy this year could well come down to the wire, but ultimately, there can only be one winner... and likely a different one in 2027.
After more than a decade of uninterrupted mobile industry domination in terms of hardware sales, Samsung yielded its crown to arch-rival Apple for the first time in 2023. But the two world heavyweight title contenders reversed positions the next year, and then did the same thing in 2025, which saw the Cupertino-based tech giant win its second global trophy in three years... by the slimmest of margins.
While the contest is predictably expected to remain just as close through the end of 2026, you might be surprised to find out that Apple is unlikely to score its third yearly triumph, at least according to the latest Counterpoint Research market forecast.
Samsung will trump Apple by 0.1 percent this year... probably
If you thought the 2025 global smartphone vendors race was a nail-biter, wait until you see how Samsung and Apple's market shares are predicted to progress in 2026. Although both numbers are likely to go up, the current champion's slice of the pie could expand from 19.7 to 22.5 percent (which is actually pretty good), with the silver medalist expected to jump from 19.2 all the way up to 22.6 percent.
The battle between Apple and Samsung is expected to remain super-close both this year and next year. | Image by Counterpoint Research
That should be enough to change the order of the world's top two vendors, but only barely and only if these projections prove 100 percent accurate, which is almost never the case.
In other words, this year's battle for mobile industry supremacy is still very much open and could go either way depending on little details like just how popular the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max will prove during their first few months of availability and how frequently and deeply Samsung's Galaxy S26 family will be discounted in the same period of time.
Only one of the two juggernauts is likely to defy the market's (huge) decline
What's perhaps more important to take away from this new forward-looking Counterpoint Research report than who is expected to claim what's ultimately a meaningless title when it's won by such a tiny margin is what company will actually be able to boost its shipments in addition to its market share.
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The success of the Galaxy S26 series is one of the big reasons why Samsung is headed for a sales boost this year. | Image by PhoneArena
That's the truest measure of evolution and resilience during some of the most challenging times in the smartphone market's history, and it's an area where only Samsung and Huawei are likely to excel in 2026 compared to last year.
Samsung could improve its 2025 sales scores by 0.8 percent, which may not sound very impressive until you consider the massive 14.3 percent reduction in volume tipped for the global mobile industry as a whole and the 2.1 percent decline expected from Apple's iPhones. That's obviously not a terrible result compared to the aforementioned 14.3 percent market contraction, but it's also not great when you consider Samsung's small projected growth and Huawei's amazing possible 8 percent jump from last year.
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The iPhone 18 taketh away, and then the iPhone 18 giveth back
If Samsung manages to get its world champion title back this year, the main device to thank for that achievement will probably not be the Galaxy S26 Ultra, Galaxy Z Fold 8, or even the Galaxy A57, but rather Apple's "vanilla" iPhone 18.
Is Apple's 2027 iPhone 18 launch a smart call?
This is widely expected to see daylight in 2027 instead of following the examples of its forerunners to make its debut alongside the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max this September. In the short run, that's likely to cause Apple some harm in terms of the mass appeal of its product portfolio, although that also virtually guarantees a 2027 global smartphone market victory by a (slightly more) comfortable 0.5 percent share margin.
Once again, both Samsung and Apple are expected to improve their market shares, and for a second consecutive year, worldwide smartphone shipments could drop in 2027... but only by 1 percent.
The next big rebound will not be caused by foldables or AI
If Counterpoint Research analysts are right (which remains a big if), smartphone sales will finally bounce back in 2028 as retail pricing "begins to stabilize" and all those of you who are intent to delay their purchases for as long as possible will have no choice but to get new devices at last.
Smartphone sales could start rising again in 2028. | Image by Counterpoint Research
At least some of these devices will be 6G-capable, mind you, and it's actually that next cellular standard that's expected to return the market to "2024-2025 levels" by 2030.
Meanwhile, foldables are likely to remain a relatively small niche (yes, even after a few different iPhone Ultra generations), and if we're lucky, we might be able to label the current "AI revolution" as a distant and equal parts annoying and amusing memory in three or four years.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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