SpaceX's rival to AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon might be among the "top three dumbest ideas"

Analysts highlight more reasons why SpaceX can't deliver on its vision.

spacex at&T t-mobile verizon rival
SpaceX might surprise everyone anyway. | Image by PhoneArena
0
The debate over whether SpaceX can challenge AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon using Starlink dishes and femtocells rages on. Most analysts remain skeptical, presenting more reasons why the idea is unlikely to work, as detailed in a new Light Reading report. 

How is SpaceX going to pull this off?


AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon customers don't worry about hardware installations. They just pop in a SIM card (or add an eSIM), and move on.

SpaceX's plan is a little convoluted. The company wants to mount small cellular base stations onto existing residential Starlink terminals. Users would need to stay close to a femtocell to get service, which would draw on broadband capacity and worsen service for everyone.


Earl Lum, founder of EJL Wireless Research, dubbed the strategy "one of the top three dumbest ideas" he has heard in four decades. An outdoor small cell draws around 5 watts per channel and requires radios and antennas. It could be difficult to set up on residential properties. SpaceX will also need permits for any macro cell site. The hassle might not be worth avoiding conventional cellular sites. If SpaceX opts for a low-powered 1-watt indoor transmitter, it would barely cover a single house.

Recommended For You

Paul Rhodes, wireless network and EdgeDC expert at Real Wireless, is equally dubious, pointing out that a 60-watt Starlink dish doesn't have enough power or backhaul capacity to handle multiple cellular radios.

Urban problems


The problem will be more profound in urban markets, where Starlink isn't as popular as it is in rural and suburban areas. A Starlink network of femtocells will likely provide patchy service, making it a hard pass for urban dwellers with better, lower-cost options.

SpaceX could target multi-dwelling units (MDUs), but that didn't work so well for Starry. Management is unlikely to allow residents to install Starlink dishes on their balconies.


Even if SpaceX somehow makes it work, the use of Starlink equipment as a mini cell tower would skyrocket electricity bills, which customers wouldn't want to foot, according to Aetha Consulting's Amit Nagpal.

What's SpaceX trying to do?
4 Votes

D2D dreams



SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has been hyping up the next-gen direct-to-device (D2D) satellites that are supposedly capable enough to support broadband data and IoT connectivity. If that were the case, why would he propose femtocells? Something doesn't add up, and the contradiction makes it a little harder to put stock in SpaceX's cellular plans.

Lum doesn't expect D2D to match terrestrial service anytime soon.

Never say never


Starlink has 12 million customers across the world, with 3 to 4 million in the US. Homebodies might find a Starlink cellular service sufficient. Even if SpaceX manages to sway some customers, it would represent a huge loss for AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon.

Besides, some analysts have argued that a hybrid network may not be that hard for SpaceX to concoct, though it wouldn't launch right away.


Six-month unlimited plan is now 57% off
$90
$210
$120 off (57%)
Mint Mobile is now allowing you to get whichever plan you like for either three, six, or 12 months for just $15/mo. If you go for the six-month unlimited service, for instance, you'll now have to pay just $90 upfront instead of $210.
Buy at Mint Mobile
Recommended For You
COMMENTS (0)