After suffering the largest ever decline in global shipments in Q4 2022 and ending last year with significantly lower volumes than in 2021, you might be wondering just how much worse things could possibly get for the smartphone market in the near future.
The answer is... not the one you're probably hoping for, as the latest CCS Insight report forecasts another big drop in worldwide sales this year for both smartphones and mobile phones as a whole.
From great to good to bad to decent again
The tech analyst firm actually focuses more on the latter market than the former category, expecting global mobile phone shipments to slip from a grand total of 1.4 billion units in 2022 and 1.59 billion in 2021 to "just" 1.35 billion copies in 2023.
That's still an absolutely massive figure that many other classes of popular consumer electronics products simply cannot and have never come close to, but compared to the nearly 2 billion units sold each year between 2014 and 2017, it... doesn't look great.
What's worse is there are no reasons to expect a spectacular recovery to those record levels from six to nine years ago anytime soon. Instead, the mobile industry could grow slightly to a global sales tally of 1.4 billion units in 2024, 1.47 billion the next year, 1.52 the year after that, and 1.56 billion in 2027, at which point phones will essentially return to their success from... 2021.
We're obviously talking about new phones here, and one of the main culprits for the market's struggles is reportedly the rising popularity of... pre-owned phones. The second-hand segment, believe it or not, is projected to generate sales of 330 million units around the world this year alone, with more and more consumers considering used devices not just a great solution to their financial woes but also an eco-friendly alternative to buying a new phone every year.
As far as smartphones go, their shipments are likely to go down to 1.16 billion units in 2023 according to CCS analysts from the 1.21 billion sold last year according to the IDC's comprehensive January report.
Brands, regions, and 5G evolution
Unfortunately, this latest research paper doesn't go into any detail about any specific smartphone vendors, suggesting however that brands "focused on premium" models (cough, Apple, cough) will continue to "benefit from the polarization of the market."
That's just a fancy way of saying that people who can afford to buy high-end smartphones will still do so in 2023, 2024, and beyond, while many people who can't are likely to explore the aforementioned second-hand alternative avenue for the first time.
Apple's thriving iPhone sales numbers are probably safe for another year... or five.
That's going to make life (and business) very difficult for manufacturers "targeting the low- and mid-range markets" (we're looking at you, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Motorola, and so on), as their customers will become more and more "price-sensitive", aiming to spend less and less money and thus further shrinking those companies' already modest profit margins.
From a geographic standpoint, certain regions will be affected by the global woes of the mobile phone industry to a larger degree than others, with demand for new devices being expected to continue its free fall in Western Europe and North America while bouncing back in China this year and remaining "stable" in India.
Temporally speaking, the market's decline is tipped to be "more pronounced" in the early stages of 2023, with a "trajectory toward recovery" anticipated for the fourth quarter, when "economic headwinds are expected to calm." And when some of the best phones of the year are obviously expected to see daylight, including Apple's iPhone 15 family and Google's Pixel 8 duo (or trio).
5G-enabled phones, meanwhile, should rise to no less than 700 million unit shipments in 2023, representing more than half of all mobile devices sold worldwide for the first time.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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