Apple Glasses won't launch until December 2021 says Gene Munster

Apple Glasses won't launch until December 2021 says Gene Munster
Last summer, Loup Ventures' Gene Munster said that Apple's AR glasses would launch in 2020 and become bigger than the iPhone. But that was last year. Munster, a long time Apple watcher for Piper Jaffray, now expects the wearable to come to market a year later than he originally expected. In a new report posted online, Munster says that Apple Glasses will be released in 2021.

Munster said that after meeting with AR experts, a product like Apple Glasses are still a few years away from being ready for prime time. This basically confirms what Apple CEO Tim Cook said last October when he stated that the technology for AR glasses is not mature. Munster says that it is more likely Apple will launch the AR headset in December 2021 instead of his earlier call for a September 2020 release. He sees Apple selling 10 million units in its first year, in line with the number of Apple Watches that the company rang up during its rookie year.

With an average selling price of $1,300, the Venture Capital executive sees Apple grossing $13 billion from its AR glasses during their first 12 months of availability. He says that this will make up 3% of Apple's fiscal 2022 revenue. Munster told clients that Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple Glasses will generate $71 billion in revenue for 2023, up from $12 billion this year.

Munster's report says that fears about privacy will hold back AR glasses at first. He mentions the failure of Google Glass back in 2014-2015 as proof that society was not yet ready for people to wear a camera. But pointing to how cameras on flip phones were first seen as a privacy threat and then welcomed as a convenience, the venture capitalist says that "In the future, we won’t be able to live without an AR wearable, and Apple will be there to sell us one."

source: LoupVentures

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18 Comments

1. Martineverest

Posts: 521; Member since: Oct 27, 2015

by then, it would be hard to catch hololens ,as it becones difficult for homepod to catch alexa

2. midan

Posts: 2597; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Just like it was hard to catch smartwatch markets? Hololens doesn't have mass appeal, also why it has to catch Hololens?

4. sgodsell

Posts: 7031; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

First of all AR glasses have to not only capture and process what we are looking at using cameras. But also augment and overlay live graphics as well at a sustainable frames per second. We are talking a whole crap load of processing that is needed, and the battery life that is needed to go with those glasses as well. There is an experimental AR/VR platform called Occipital, which cost $400 USD. And it only works with the iPhone 6s, 7, and 8. It doesn't support the plus models. If you haven't figured out what AR and VR headsets actually do. Then remember this all smartphones including the iPhones displays are split in two for AR and VR headsets. So an iPhone 6s, 7, or 8 display is now 667x750 resolution per eye. That resolution is just so pitiful, that you can forget about reading text that is right in front of your face. That is why you need higher resolution displays for AR and VR headsets. But the higher the resolution the faster the SoC you will need as well.

16. Finalflash

Posts: 4063; Member since: Jul 23, 2013

You are thinking of phones mounted in headsets which is a dead prospect since VR definitely requires dedicated headsets from my experience. As for AR, they will attempt to copy Google glass which has its own display but failed due to privacy reasons. The iFans who were against Glass will all of a sudden find no privacy issues when Apple does it so that is a non-issue for Apple. The mass public will also go that route because marketing will make it cool and the US market is basically influenced by brand far too easily. Basically you need Apple to get into this, no matter how copycat the solution because that is where the koolaid in the US comes from. It's also the reason NFC and wireless charging weren't cool until Apple suddenly got it (some iFans are still spinning from the hard 180 they tried when Apple released 4 year old wireless charging tech). So for this, I'm hoping Apple gets into this, I don't even care if they call it Apple Glass, just make it happen so everyone else can do it better.

18. sgodsell

Posts: 7031; Member since: Mar 16, 2013

Clearly you experience is very limited, especially when it comes to VR. When it comes to AR headsets dedicated or not, all require displays. From this point you have a choice of dual displays, or a single display split in two (L/R). Plus you need high resolutions. Higher than anything that Apple currently has on any iPhones. In order to drive a display for either AR or VR you need a high resolution display(s). But the higher the resolution, then the more GPU and CPU resources you will need in order to drive those higher resolution displays. This is where Apples current line of Ax SoCs would fail, especially when they would throttle down and die, if they were currently placed in any headset, and had to drive any high resolution display(s). For any reasonable length of time. It's one of the reasons why we haven't seen any VR or AR headsets from Apple. That an iOS doesn't lend itself to any AR/VR headset, especially when users have to take off their headset to run different apps every time.

6. Back_from_beyond

Posts: 1300; Member since: Sep 04, 2015

At $1300 as a base price Apple's AR/VR solution, it won't have mass appeal either. Add to it that they supposedly require a base station that wirelessly streams the content you hit another less desirable feature of the product. There are already AR/VR wearable products being developed that are completely stand-alone and withat least 3 years to go on expected release odds are th competition will not be slacking off and make this idea of Apple's a very hard sell.

5. iPhoneFanboy

Posts: 286; Member since: Apr 21, 2018

just as its hard for the S9 to catch owners

8. someguy2261

Posts: 250; Member since: Feb 12, 2016

Proud ownerof s9+ and love it , don't be jealous ,,,, lol

14. iPhoneFanboy

Posts: 286; Member since: Apr 21, 2018

I'm sorry.. ..for you xD

10. sissy246

Posts: 7035; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

You mean like the notchX that has had trouble finding owners.

12. midan

Posts: 2597; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

X is selling very well, it was false information that X isn't selling, we already saw Apple q results. This new stats from yesterday from Counterpoint is another proof of that https://images.firstpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Best-Selling-Model-March-2018.jpg Sales of X are superior to anything else. X alone is selling more than S9/S9+ combined and those phones were just released.

17. sissy246

Posts: 7035; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

It still did not sale like expected. Not saying it didn't sale good, just not like expected.

13. iPhoneFanboy

Posts: 286; Member since: Apr 21, 2018

The notchX is the worlds #1 selling flagship of 2018, so far.

15. Dr.Phil

Posts: 2314; Member since: Feb 14, 2011

Hololens is not marketed towards the general consumer. They are being marketed towards enterprise and industrial consumers. Not to mention they cost $3000-$5000 and are a huge bulky headset, whereas the Apple glasses will try to be more like Google Glass in both appearance and marketability towards the general consumer. Now, that's not to say that Microsoft couldn't come out with a smaller Hololens 2 that could compete directly with Apple before they release theirs. But then the question would become would Microsoft have actual applications that the end user wants or will Apple/Google have the advantage?

3. midan

Posts: 2597; Member since: Oct 09, 2017

Sounds right, AR glasses in current state are very far from mass product, if they ever will be. Maybe after 2020 tech have development enough to make great experience with AR glasses having around same size and weight than sunglasses.

7. Wolf_Blitza

Posts: 64; Member since: May 30, 2014

who's copying who now?

9. scarface21173

Posts: 646; Member since: Aug 17, 2014

Niche market, just like 3d glasses for the tv. Great for once or twice then they jst go in the cupboard.

11. sissy246

Posts: 7035; Member since: Mar 04, 2015

Agree Just like all the VR headset. Most of them probably set on the shelf after a few uses.

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