Munster: Apple Glasses will be bigger than the iPhone
by Alan Friedman / Jun 28, 2017, 12:33 PM
Munster, who now works for Venture Capital firm Loup Ventures, a firm he helped start, says that the rumored Apple Glasses, which use Augmented Reality, will eventually become bigger than the iPhone. Munster sees iPhone sales peaking in 2019 and the Glasses initial launch to take place in 2020.
Munster says that the Apple Glasses will do many of the things that the iPhone does today without users having to take the iPhone out of a pocket. The analyst sees iPhone revenue growing 15% in fiscal year 2018 (which includes the introduction of iPhone 8) and will be responsible for 64% of the company's total revenue for that year. With strong sales expected for the tenth anniversary model, fiscal year 2019 iPhone sales may fall short on a year-to-year basis. That takes us to 2020 and the expected launch of Apple Glasses. From that point forward, the analyst sees iPhone sales starting to decline thanks to the new device.
Between 2020 and 2022, Munster expects iPhone sales to decline 3% to 4% year-over-year. Unit sales of the iPhone will drop up to 2%. The analyst says that after the launch of Apple Glasses, the iPhone will still be around, but will no longer make up the bulk of Apple's annual revenue.
While this sound intriguing, Apple has yet to confirm that it is working on such a product. Yes, there has been some buzz about such a device, but nothing official has been said by Apple's camp. In March, tech evangelist Robert Scoble said that he had been tipped about Apple's interest in such a device by an employee working for Carl Zeiss. Contradicting Munster's view of the product, Scoble said that Apple Glasses would have to pair with an iPhone in order to work. He sees the AR product hitting the market next year at the earliest, but it could be much longer before they are ready for prime time.
Posts: 614; Member since: Jul 28, 2010
Glasses will NOT work as a daily item. Even those that wear glasses don't like having to wear them. Create an Apple contact lense maybe. But Google and others already know this is not going to happen. God when will the love fest for Apple die already.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 12:48 PM 4
Posts: 521; Member since: Oct 27, 2015
i think apple glass can never beat hololens in terms of sophistication.. Apple will lead the consumer race,while microsoft will lead in enterprise hololens will be more expensive due to its high sophistication
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:09 PM 0
Posts: 2464; Member since: Apr 08, 2016
Thats the thing, despite microsofts version being more sophisticated, apple is likely going to hit a home run because apple knows how to keep it simple and bring new technology to the market which would be relatable to the average consumer. Thats where the magic is.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:26 PM 0
Posts: 576; Member since: Nov 03, 2011
regardless of how good Apple is at keeping it simple (casually waits for others to do it) the smart eye ware section is extremely hard to enter watches are way easier due to them being so low profile. try to get a person who doesn't already wear glasses to wear smart ones.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 2:32 PM 0
Posts: 2540; Member since: Sep 03, 2013
I don't think Apple just waits for others to do it. They just don't talk about what they are working on until it's getting close to release. What most non Apple manufacturers are doing now is simply trying to beat Apple to market with product, but mostly failing because they are launching a rushed product that gives people a half baked product. Apple takes its time and releases a much more mature product that's better suited for prime time. It may not always be perfect, but it's a lot closer.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 7:00 PM 0
Posts: 576; Member since: Nov 03, 2011
The only true thing you said was that Apple was secretive. nobody is trying to beat apple they have been second or last with everything besides the actual OG iPhone and the 3d pressure sensing display...
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 8:51 PM 0
Posts: 5474; Member since: Apr 05, 2013
Apple does wait for others. They look what sticks and what flops and then apply it to their own products. This is, of course, a smart business strategy but it's not like they can make a product good all on their own. They need the competition to make the good and the bad and apply it to their own products. Besides Apple doesn't always make a mature that is close to perfection.
posted on Jun 29, 2017, 2:15 AM 0
Posts: 429; Member since: Feb 21, 2016
sure not. Glasses are made to be used in one single way,on your nose! This limits device capabilities. Can't say the same about a phone which can be used virtually in any way/place. The only big thing which will remain in history about Apple, is rheir marketing and sales department, fabulous for a social corporation, sad for a tech company. IMO
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:11 PM 0
Posts: 6388; Member since: Jul 11, 2012
Speculative. Will it have an apple logo on it...really depends on where that logo is...will it be easy for everyone to see it?
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:26 PM 0
Posts: 6025; Member since: Aug 06, 2013
Suddenly I am remembering back to the Eye Phone episode from Futurama. Walking down the street, then suddenly ads start popping up blocking your view. I know, it's a dumb cartoon. I am curious to see whatever becomes of this. It just seems nowadays that we, as consumers, get a lot of promises about the next big thing, but it never comes to market, Project Ara from Google as a key example.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:32 PM 0
Posts: 270; Member since: May 13, 2016
I don't think he has ever been right on any his predictions. He is just an Apple cheerleader. A couple of his wise insights. From September 7, 2010 “We believe long term both RIM and Nokia will be share losers in the smartphone space because they do not have a core software competency,” the firm explains. “Over time, we do not see the benefit of RIM and Nokia continuing to push proprietary software that can’t compete with the market and eventually expect one or both to capitulate and move to utilizing third party software….Ultimately, we believe Android is likely to control over half of the smartphone market in the next five years. Apple’s essentially two phone focus (low price 3GS and higher price 4) will likely limit how much of the market Apple can control and we believe ultimately Apple’s smartphone market share tops out between 20-30%, which still offers significant room to grow.” From April 03, 2012 Apple’s stock price has continued to rise at an incredible rate for months, leading one analyst to predict that its shares will reach $1,000 by 2014, making it the world’s first trillion-dollar company. Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, has raised his 12-month price target for AAPL stock from $718 to $910. Just beyond that window, he expects it to exceed the $1,000 mark, giving the company a market cap of around $1 trillion. The iPhone will continue to drive Apple’s growth, as it has done for years, according to Munster, with at least 70% of all two-year-old iPhone owners upgrading to the latest device. “That suggests 33% of iPhones in a given quarter through 2015 are ‘in the bag,'” Munster said. “We believe this is conservative given it expects an average iPhone life of 24 months.”
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 1:34 PM 3
Posts: 339; Member since: Mar 16, 2013
It won't work for one simple reason and that is it won't be subsidized by cell phone carriers, meaning people will have to buy it outright which is a tough sell when it losses the appearance of being free.
posted on Jun 28, 2017, 5:57 PM 0
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